@DSportsGuide: August 2011

August 30, 2011

2011 Big 12 Preview: Analyzing the Odds

The way things have gone for the Big 12 conference the past two off seasons, this could very well be the last year of it's existence. Right now, as you are reading this, another team just left the Big 12.

This will be the first season the Big 12 show cases their 10 team conference and forgoes a championship game at the end of the season. Instead, it will be round robin conference play with the best record getting crowned as the champions.

This year the Big 12 features four teams ranked in the AP Poll: Oklahoma (#1), Texas A&M (#8), Oklahoma State (#9), and Missouri (#21). It’s pretty crazy to think the only conference with three teams ranked in the top ten is teetering among the land of the dinosaurs- extinction.

Regardless of all the off the field drama between school presidents, there is actually some great football to be played and some intriguing value out there in various teams.

***If you place a wager, please wager responsibly. Do NOT place a wager that is outside your financial means. If you can’t afford to lose that amount, then it is outside your means. There have never been and never will be a LOCK on any particular game. Anything can happen inside the lines on any given day, like a 36 point underdog in Stanford beating USC on the road in 2007.

Now that you plan to wager responsibly, let’s take a look at some Vegas odds on the Big 12 Conference.

Big 12 Champion

Projected Winner- Oklahoma (-195): Oklahoma returns one of the nation’s most prolific passing offenses, led by QB Landry Jones. Jones has some serious weapons at his disposal at WR, in Ryan Broyles and the underrated Kenny Stills. It doesn’t hurt that Oklahoma has four offensive linemen returning that should be among the conference’s best groups at the position. As long as the Sooners can replace DeMarco Murray with the same level of production (which they should have no problem doing), their offense will be one of the most dynamic in the nation.

Defensively, Oklahoma does have some question marks in their front seven. Their defensive line needs their stud recruits to step up and their linebackers must hold it down until Travis Lewis returns from injury. Their secondary is a very solidified unit now that Jamell Fleming cleared academically for the 2011 season. They are going to need to improve in the front seven to be dominate defense this season.

Oklahoma gets Missouri, Texas Tech, and Texas A&M at home which is huge for the Sooners who are 72-2 at home under Bob Stoops. That is a significant advantage for Oklahoma and the thought of any losses in Norman diminish considering that record. Road games at Kansas, Kansas State, and Baylor should all be easy wins for the Sooners. Their road game in Stillwater might be the one that gets tricky. Even though the Sooners have won the past eight meetings, including their last four at Oklahoma State, things could get a little tricky for Oklahoma in Stillwater. I haven't even mentioned their game against Texas yet, which shows just how much of an after thought they are this season in the Big 12.

There is a good chance Oklahoma will be undefeated in Big 12 play heading into the Bedlam showdown against Oklahoma State. There is a good chance that the OU money line for that game could be similar to the (-195) line posted for Oklahoma to win the Big 12. However, given Oklahoma State’s schedule (@A&M, @TTU, @Mizzou, @Texas), there is a good chance they will not be in a position where that game decides the conference. A bet on Oklahoma will probably be a winner and even though I hate laying that type of juice, I might have to throw something the Sooners way.

Value Wager- Texas A&M (+700): In the Big 12 this season, there are limited actual value wagers regarding surprise teams taking the conference. This year, it’s more about deciding which team can defeat Oklahoma and has the best schedule in conference play.

Texas A&M should be a great team this season. They return their savior at QB, Ryan Tannehill, a plethora of weapons at the skill positions, and four starters on the offensive line. Eight starters return on a defense that will be in their 3^rd year under Tim DeRuyter, who has really transformed the Aggie’s defense since his arrival. Things are looking good on both sides of the ball for the Aggies and they have the type of team balance you need to challenge Oklahoma.

Other than the road game in Norman (reminder: OU is 72-2 at home under Stoops), the schedule sets up nicely for the Aggies. They get Oklahoma State, Missouri, and Texas at Kyle field; one of the toughest places to play in college football. They do have a tricky game against Texas Tech in Lubbock that comes after a back to back with Oklahoma State and Arkansas, but it’s definitely winnable. If they can take care of business at home and somehow hand Stoops his third loss in Norman, things could be looking good for the Aggie's last hoorah.

If Texas A&M is the team everyone is expecting them to be, their game in Norman could literally end up being the deciding factor in who wins the Big 12. If that happens to be the case, then there is a huge value on them at (+700) for that one game, which equates to them being around 17-20 point under dogs (very doubtful). This play has great value in this scenario, however given Stoop’s record in Norman, I can’t see a good reason to drop a big wager on it. A small one will do.

Why Not

Texas (+1000): Six new assistant coaches is a lot of overhaul and can be a difficult transition in year one. I’m not sure Texas' offense will be in the top half of the Big 12 as OU, OKST, TTU, A&M, Mizzou, and Baylor are all better. Even if they are vastly improved from the putrid 5-7 team we saw last year, their games @Mizzou, @A&M, and against OU are going to be tough to navigate to be a contender in the conference.

Oklahoma State (+1100): I’m sure you already know this, but this offense is going to be electrifying. IF their Big 12 schedule didn’t consist of road games at A&M, Texas, Missouri, and Texas Tech, I probably would’ve chosen them as my “Value Team.” They just don’t have the defense to go on the road like that and not endure at least two losses.

Missouri (+1700): This was ALMOST my “Value Team.” They are going to be very good in the trenches, especially on defense. If they hadn’t lost stud T Elvis Fisher for an extended period of time they would be just as good on the offensive line. They are bringing in a new starting quarterback in James Franklin and even though he’s supposed to be a stud, he’s still unproven. Also, they do have a road game at Texas A&M, so I had to give the Aggies the advantage as the dark horse (even though i think the Tigers can win that game). It was hard to pass up 17-1 on my money, but my nit picking ways made me do it.

Texas Tech (+3400): This team is still an unproven commodity under the Tommy Tuberville regime and their 3-5 conference record in 2010 did not help their cause. I think Tech will surprise a lot of people this season, but conference road games at Texas, Oklahoma, and Missouri are sure to prevent them from being a legit spoiler this season. Watch out in 2012 though.

Baylor (+3500): This should be a very dangerous team offensively, but defensively I’m not sure they could stop my college flag football team. We weren’t that good either.

Kansas State (+6000), Iowa State (+16000), Kansas (+17500): The talent isn’t there for these future Big East and Mountain West programs. These former Big 12 North teams aren't ready to compete with the Oklahoma and Texas schools on a regular basis.

Comments, questions, and opinions are always encourage.

Follow me on twitter: @DSportsGuide

2011 Pac 12 Preview: Analyzing the Odds

The newly expanded Pac 12 is set to debut this season with the additions of Colorado and Utah. The conference is also ready to debut their new bank accounts, which got a little bigger with their near $3 billion dollar TV deal, set to begin in the 2012-2013 season.

They enter this season with only three teams ranked in the AP Poll and one of them is ineligible. This season seems like it will be a two team race between Oregon and Stanford for the Pac 12 title and the winner of their meeting on November 12^th with an inside track to the conference championship game.

Usually, I can find some type of value in dark horse teams to win their divisions. However, with the betting favorites in each division being so close in value and the bottom teams being so far off from a competition stand point, I will not have any divisional value selections in this preview.

Now that you plan to wager responsibly, let’s take a look at some Vegas odds on the Pac 12 Conference.

North

Projected Winner- Oregon (+110): Oregon returns one of the best backfields in all of college football with QB Darron Thomas and RB LaMichael James. If new comers on the offensive line can quickly gel together, this offense should be every bit as explosive as last year’s team. The real question lies in the Oregon’s defense as they must replace five starters in their front seven. Oregon’s strength will be in their secondary which features stud DB Cliff Harris.

When you talk about Oregon’s schedule there is really only one game to talk about; their November 12^th meeting at Stanford. They do travel to Arizona early on in Pac 12 play, but Arizona has sustained a lot of injuries on defense this off season that should linger into that game one way or another. Otherwise, the schedule breaks nicely for them as they miss playing Utah and get USC, Arizona State, and Oregon State at home.

I think Oregon will be able to go into Stanford and get a win. “Luck”ily for them, their defensive strength lies in their secondary, which will need to be good to slow down Heisman favorite Andrew Luck. Oregon’s offense was able to put up 52 points on Stanford’s defense last season.Stanford's defense averaged only 14.5PPG against (excluding Oregon) and pitched three shutouts in Pac 10 play. This season their defense certainly won’t be better and, in fact, should be a little less effective when compared to last season.

I think Oregon will be able to win this division, however from a betting standpoint I do not like this wager. At only +110, you essentially are getting very little value to navigate through nine games and come out on top. The reality is, Oregon might not even be favored in their game against Stanford since it is on the road. That means you could get the same value for just one game if you were to bet the Oregon money line. If they are favored, it would only be by a small margin meaning the payout will be very similar. Most likely, that game will decide the North and with that in mind, I’m going to pass on this wager and wait for the November 12^th showdown to place a bet on Oregon.

Why Not

Stanford (+175): With Andrew Luck and his two best offensive linemen returning, this was a hard bet to pass up. The loss of Jim Harbough meant a loss of mental toughness week in and week out, no one has it like that guy. Also, I worried Stanford might be a little bit beat up heading into their showdown with Oregon since two weeks prior they have back to back road games at USC and Oregon State. If there was any value wager in this division, it would be Stanford since the game against Oregon is at home. You would essentially have +175 on them winning, which will probably be better odds than you will get in November.

Oregon State (+800): I think Ryan Katz is going to be a very good quarterback and will make this team competitive. But, their Pac 12 schedule, which features road games at Arizona State, Utah, and Oregon, along with Stanford at home, will probably be too much to overcome to get the amount of wins they’ll need.

Washington (+800): This is a very interesting spoiler type of team going into the 2011 season, but I don’t think their schedule will allow them to get anywhere close to winning this division. It features games at Utah, Stanford, USC, and Oregon State, with Oregon on the schedule as well.

California (+1250): They should have a great defense, but an anemic offense. They also play at Oregon, Stanford, and Washington, so if in some rare case they did over achieve, they still would be at a disadvantage for any tie breakers from a scheduling stand point.

Washington State (+4700): They have an outside shot at making the FCS playoffs.

South

Projected Winner- Utah (+250): Jordan Wynn is entering his third year as the starting QB for the Utes and projects to be a great fit in Norm Chow’s offense. As long as Wynn isn’t ailing from offseason shoulder surgery, I expect him to make significant strides behind an offensive line that returns three outstanding starters. Defensively, Utah’s front seven should be very solid, with the question marks coming from their secondary. The secondary was their weakness last season and it must be improved.

With USC being ineligible, that changes the dynamic of this bet just a little (OK a lot). Utah gets Arizona State at home, which figures to be their toughest competition for the division. If they can take care of business in that game, that could set them up for an easy 8-1 or 7-2 conference record and give them an edge in tie breakers. Oh, one other little advantage Utah has over the Sun Devils and Wildcats is they don’t have Oregon or Stanford on the schedule. It seems like the schedule maker is rooting for the Utes.

Utah is a talented team and their schedule makes them a very favorable bet to win this division, especially with USC ineligible. It’s a little worrisome that this is their first season in a BCS conference, but they played seven or eight BCS caliber teams last season and managed 10 wins. I like this wager a lot and given the value, it’s a great spot for a decent sized bet on Utah.

Arizona State (+195): It was hard for me to pass on Arizona State because, theoretically, they should be good. However, they have had a disruptive offseason, which included a season ending injury to stud LB Brandon Magee. I think Osweiler should be good, but he’s unproven. They have an extremely tough start to the season which includes road games at Utah and Oregon. In the end, I can't trust a Dennis Erickson team to come through for me. Hope I’m not eating those words later.

Arizona (+315): Nick Foles is a great QB, but he has an offensive line in front of him that is as green as they come- zero returning starters. They’ve also sustained a couple of season ending injuries to returning starters on defense. With their grueling Pac 12 schedule that kicks off with Stanford, Oregon, @USC, @Oregon State and ends with a trip to Arizona State, I can’t see Arizona being a legitimate contender this season.

UCLA (+650): Rick Neuheisel still hasn’t named a starting QB for the season, probably because he doesn’t want it to begin. UCLA is not going to threaten for the division with a conference road schedule that features games at Oregon State, Stanford, Arizona, Utah, and Arizona State. It probably wont take long for the Bruins to be looking towards their 2012 season under a new regime.

Colorado (+800): Colorado is not the worst team in this division, but they aren’t going to contend for it either.

USC (N/A): It’s too bad Reggie Bush didn’t get a tattoo instead of a house because the Trojans would probably win the division with ease this season. It’s good news for bettors because USC’s ineligibility opens up the playing field to get value with Utah.

Pac 12 Champion

Oregon (+200)

Stanford (+300)

Arizona State (+550)

Utah (+775)

Arizona (+850)

UCLA (+1800)

Oregon State (+1900)

Washington (+1900)

Colorado (+2300)

California (+2900)

Washington State (+12500)

The first ever Pac 12 conference title game should feature the Oregon against Utah, with Oregon winning with ease. At 2-1 on your money, Oregon is worth a small wager prior to the season to win the Pac 12.

Projected Winner- Oregon (+200)

Value Team- Utah (+775)

Comments and questions are always encouraged.

Follow me on twitter: @DSportsGuide

August 29, 2011

2011 Big 10 Preview: Analyzing the Odds

In the past year, the Big 10 has been on a re-branding campaign, adding Nebraska to the B1G Conference and placing them in the Legends division. What? It’s true; times are changing in the Big 10.

With the season upon us, we no longer have to discuss why the Big 10 has twelve teams and Big 12 only has ten. Instead, it’s time to determine who will be playing each other in the Big 10’s first ever conference championship game. This is should be a very competitive year in the Big 10 as it features nine teams that went to a bowl game in 2010.

Now that you plan to wager responsibly, let’s take a look at some Vegas odds on the B1G Conference

Legends Division

Projected Winner- Nebraska (-165): It’s easy to understand why Nebraska is such a huge favorite to win their division in their first season in Big Ten play, as they return one of the country’s best defenses, led by Jared Crick. The big question for Nebraska will be on offense, mainly at the Quarterback position. We know how electrifying Taylor Martinez can be running the ball, but the key to Nebraska’s offensive success will hinge on his ability to throw the ball, which he struggled with last season.

Nebraska has the hardest schedule of any team in the Big 10. Minus Minnesota, their schedule consists of seven bowl teams from 2010, who happen to be the seven betting favorites (behind Nebraska) to win the Big 10. They start conference play @Wisconsin followed by a home game against Ohio State, a very tough back to back. After a bye week and a game @Minnesota, they then rattle off games against Michigan State, Northwestern, @Penn State, @Michigan, and Iowa. What a truly brutal stretch.

Without a doubt, Nebraska will be one of the best teams in the Big 10 this season. However, given the uncertainty at the quarterback position coupled with their daunting Big 10 schedule, I can’t find any reason to lay that type of juice on this team to win their division.

Value Wager- Iowa (+800): Iowa must replace a plethora of talent from last season, which includes Ricky Stanzi, Adrian Clayborn, and Christian Ballard. With only eight true starters returning from a team that went 8-5 last season, there should be little room for optimism, right?

Actually, this team could be every bit as talented, if not better, than the team they had last season. They return the core of their offensive line, which includes both tackles. This should bode well for Marcus Coker who, at times, looked like he is a future stud in the making. If James Vandenberg can be an efficient game manager, their offense should be in very good shape in Big 10 play. Iowa must replace three players in their defensive line they lost to the NFL last season, which will be the key for the defense. If they are able to find a consistent pass rush, things will be looking up in a hurry for the Hawkeyes.

The schedule is where you have to love the division odds for this team. They begin Big 10 play with a very winnable road game at Penn State, a team who seems offensively confused and questionable. They then get Northwestern, Michigan, and Michigan State at home, which is favorable. The rest of the schedule fills out with games where they must avoid slip ups against Indiana, @Minnesota, and @Purdue. If they take care of business, their last game at Nebraska could be meaningless as far as the division goes.

Given their schedule and the fact you could be getting 8-1 on your money their last game of the season at Nebraska, I think a small value wager on Iowa could be justified.

Why Not

Michigan State (+450): Last year, Michigan State took advantage of a favorable schedule to finish 11-1 in the regular season. In 2011, they aren’t as fortunate with road games at Ohio State, Nebraska, Iowa, and Northwestern. The road games at Nebraska and Iowa put them in an unfavorable position in any tiebreaker scenarios for the division.

Michigan (+775): They were extremely close to being my dark horse for the division, but I couldn’t pull the trigger based on their schedule. Road games at Northwestern, Michigan State, Iowa, and Illinois are all practically toss up games for Big Blue. Finishing the season with Nebraska and Ohio State back to back could be tough for a team that lacks experience in the depth chart. I think Michigan is going to surprise some people this season, but I just couldn’t see them taking the division in 2011.

Northwestern (+950): It's just weeks before the season and Dan Persa is still ailing from off season Achilles surgery which is cause for concern. On top of that, I’m not sure Northwestern has the defense to contend consistently in Big 10 play. I like them for an upset or two, but not the division.

Minnesota (+5300): They finished strong last season with a two game winning streak, but it’s too bad it only bumped their win total to three. They have a long ways to go before they are contending.

Leaders Division

Projected Winner- Wisconsin (+130): Wisconsin was projected to be a pretty good team again this season and that was before they landed Russell Wilson at quarterback. Now they are projected to win the division and possibly be a national title contender. Wilson now gives Wisconsin a legitimate offense to go with, what should be, a legitimate defense. This is probably the most complete team in the Big 10.

They have a bit of a tough schedule that includes road games at Michigan State, Ohio State, and Illinois, even though they should be a favorite in all of them. If they can take care of business at home against Nebraska and Penn State, they will be in great shape to win the division.

Looking down the line at a discombobulated Ohio State and an uncertain Penn State, it’s easy to see why Wisconsin is the favorite to win the division. I think there is another BCS bowl in Wisconsin’s future and even at low odds, they should be worth a wager.

Value Wager- Illinois (+1200): Last season, Nathan Scheelhaase emerged as a capable signal caller for new offensive coordinator Paul Petrino’s offense. They had some up and down moments last season, which were growing pains for a relatively young team at its core. This season, both units should be vastly improved and possibly ready to take the next step in conference play.

Upon the team’s improvement, the true value in Illinois lies in their schedule. They get most of their tougher opponents at home (Northwestern, Ohio State, Michigan, and Wisconsin) and yield road games to lesser opponents (Indiana, Purdue, Penn State, and Minnesota). If Illinois has taken that next step, this schedule is by far one of the more manageable ones in the conference.

Realistically, this is probably going to be a middle of the pack Big 10 team. However, they do get Ohio State and Wisconsin at home which gives them some help towards their cause concerning any division tie breakers. Since Ohio State and Penn State are a little bit down heading into this season, it could be the perfect storm of Zook magic to challenge Wisconsin for the division. It’s worth a small wager, but I wouldn’t go too deep into the pockets for it either.

Why Not

Ohio State (+240): Considering they get Wisconsin and Penn State at home, it was really hard not to pick the Buckeyes as the division winners. Ohio State should still have one of the best defenses in the Big 10 and could finish the season strong once they get players back from suspension. It’s hard to overlook this off season and feel comfortable putting my hard earned cheddar on such a tumultuous situation like the one in Columbus.

Penn State (+260): I’m not sure what Penn State is going to bring to the table offensively this season. Their odds are too short to take a chance that the QB situation could get settled and an effective offense could emerge. I have them at eight wins tops.

Purdue (+3500) or Indiana (+5000): The Colts or the Irish would be the only teams in Indiana with a chance to win this division. Since one is in the NFL and the other is out orbiting the college football universe, I don't see that happening anytime soon.

Big Ten Champion

Nebraska (+175)

Wisconsin (+250)

Ohio State (+525)

Penn State (+600)

Michigan State (+1250)

Iowa (+1900)

Michigan (+1900)

Northwestern (+2500)

Illinois (+2900)

Purdue (+10000)

Indiana (+13500)

Minnesota (+16000)

Both divisions could easily come down to tie breaker situations- that’s how competitive the B1G should be this year.

UPSET ALERT: I believe the championship game will feature the Wisconsin Badgers against the Iowa Hawkeyes, leaving the newly added Cornhuskers out in the cold.

Wisconsin and Iowa match-up in very similar ways, but I have to give the edge to the Badgers as they are far better at the QB and DL positions.

Projected Winner: Wisconsin (+250)

Value Team: Iowa (+1900)

Questions and comments are always encouraged.

Follow me on twitter: @DSportsGuide

August 26, 2011

The Season After: Replacing 3yr Starting Quarterbacks

With so many players recruited to college football programs throughout the nation, there is usually a consistent overturn in starters at each position. Freshman and Sophomores tend to fall in line to the seniority of upperclassmen when it comes to playing time on Saturdays.

However, every now and then, a truly transcendent and special youngster will step in and fill a starting role at a position of need for their football team. Some positions are easier than others to plug in an inexperienced underclassmen into the team’s system -- quarterback is not one of those positions.

Teams who return successful quarterbacks with experience tend to be rated a lot higher than those without. For example, 17 of the 25 teams in the 2011 preseason poll return QB’s with significant starting experience under their belts (including nine of the top ten ranked teams). Experience at the QB position is key in college football and teams usually find it difficult to replace a starting quarterback with significant in-game experience under their belt.

Even with perennial Top 10 recruiting classes, Texas and Florida will tell you that guys like Colt McCoy and Tim Tebow (both three year starters) are not easy to replace. In 2010, the new quarterbacks struggled and both teams saw the win column take a dramatic dip as a result. Their replacements were not a couple of walk-ons either; Garrett Gilbert and John Brantley were ranked as the 2^nd and 3^rd overall quarterbacks in their respective recruiting classes.

This had me wondering, typically, how hard it is to replace quarterbacks who have three seasons of starting experience without enduring some type of slide from the previous season? Outside of these two isolated cases, is this an epidemic amongst college football programs nationwide?

With wins being the most important statistic of all, I put this theory to paper using a few simple guidelines to determine if it really is a tall task to replace successful three year starters at quarterback.

Guidelines

Teams were invited to a bowl game in the QB’s final year. I used this to thin the field because I felt that being invited to a bowl game is the line between successful and unsuccessful teams in a given season. Expectations of which bowl is always different amongst programs, but for college football as a whole, this is the cutoff. Similar to making the cut in golf.

QB must have played significantly in 7 of 12 regular season games in three seasons. This allows room for injuries or a situation where the QB earns the starting job mid-season.

Record of the QB’s team in their final season will be compared to their record the following season. Using the only stat that matters in college football, wins, this will help determine any type of slide a team had having to replace that QB.

QB was the starter their last year of eligibility. Basically, this is the Drew Weatherford rule. Sorry Drew.

Of course, there are always extenuating circumstances to why a program might slide from one season to the next, whether it be a coaching change, NCAA infractions, or Stephen Garcia partying too hard in the off-season (kidding....kind of).

However, I have not figured out the standard deviation applicable to this formula that would attain the simplicity of the statistical analysis being conducted, so those variables will be ignored until I do.

Did I sound intelligent there? Sweet dude, thanks.

Below are the three year starters dating back to 2003.

	Quarterback	Final Year	Final Season	Next Season
FLA	Tim Tebow	2009	13-1	8-5
BYU	Max Hall	2009	11-2	7-6
TEX	Colt McCoy	2009	13-1	5-7
CMICH	Dan LeFevour	2009	12-2	3-9
BGU	Tyler Sheehan	2009	7-6	2-10
OKST	Zac Robinson	2009	9-4	11-2

TTU	Graham Harrell	2008	11-2	9-4
MIZZ	Chase Daniel	2008	10-4	8-5
GA	Matt Stafford	2008	10-3	8-5
UTAH	Brian Johnson**	2008	13-0	10-3
RICE	Chase Clement	2008	10-3	2-10
BUGG	Drew Willy	2008	8-6	5-7
WVU	Pat White	2008	9-4	9-4
BAMA	John Parker Wilson	2008	12-2	14-0
RUT	Mike Teel	2008	8-5	9-4
FRES	Tom Brandstater	2008	7-6	8-5

HAW	Colt Brennan	2007	12-1	7-7
LOU	Brian Brohm	2007	6-6	5-7
KENT	Andre Woodson	2007	8-5	7-6
MICH	Chad Henne	2007	9-4	3-9
AUB	Brandon Cox	2007	9-4	5-7
TULSA	Paul Smith	2007	10-4	11-3

WISC	John Stocco	2006	12-1	9-4
PITT	Tyler Palko	2006	6-6	5-7
HOU	Kevin Kolb	2006	10-4	8-5
BOISE	Jared Zabransky	2006	13-0	10-3
ND	Brady Quinn	2006	10-3	3-9
FLA	Chris Leak	2006	13-1	9-4
NEV	Jeff Rowe	2006	8-5	6-7
MIN	Bryan Cupito	2006	6-7	1-11
GATECH	Reggie Ball	2006	9-5	7-6
MTU	Clint Marks	2006	7-6	5-7
IOWA	Drew Tate	2006	6-7	6-6
BYU	John Beck	2006	11-2	11-2

USC	Matt Leinart	2005	12-1	11-2
UCLA	Drew Olson	2005	10-2	7-6
OREG	Kellen Clemens	2005	10-2	7-6
TOL	Bruce Gradkowski	2005	9-3	5-7
NW	Brett Basanez	2005	7-5	4-8
FRES	Paul Pinegar	2005	8-5	4-8
COL	Joel Klatt	2005	7-6	2-10
CLEM	Charlie Whitehurst	2005	8-4	8-5
MIZZ	Brad Smith	2005	7-5	8-5
RUT	Ryan Hart	2005	7-5	11-2
USM	Dustin Almond	2005	7-5	9-5

PUR	Kyle Orton	2004	7-5	5-6
ORE ST	Derek Anderson	2004	7-5	5-6
HAW	Timmy Chang	2004	8-5	5-7
CIN	Gino Guidugli	2004	7-5	4-7
ASU	Andrew Walter	2004	9-3	7-5
MEM	Danny Wimprine	2004	8-4	7-5
UCONN	Dan Orlovsky	2004	8-4	5-6
UNC	Darian Durant	2004	6-6	5-6
NIU	Josh Haldi	2004	9-3	7-5
GA	David Greene	2004	10-2	10-3
WVU	Rasheed Marshall	2004	8-4	11-1
VA TECH	Bryan Randall	2004	10-3	11-2

MIA (OH)	Ben Roethlisberger	2003	13-1	8-5
NC ST	Philip Rivers	2003	8-5	5-6
MICH	John Navarre	2003	10-3	9-3
MISS	Eli Manning	2003	10-3	4-7
WASH	Cody Pickett	2003	6-6	1-10
COL ST	Bradlee Van Pelt	2003	7-6	4-7
BOISE	Ryan Dinwiddie	2003	13-1	11-1
TENN	Casey Clausen	2003	10-3	10-3

	The Season After
	Less Wins	49/65	75.4%
	More Wins	10/65	15.4%
	Same Wins	6/65	9.2%
	Not Bowl Eligible	26/65	37%

As you can see, a staggering 75% of college football programs saw some type of win total reduction after replacing a three year starter the following season.

Real game experience for quarterbacks is irreplaceable, which is why you see such a consistent drop in the win column for 75% of the teams replacing three year starters over the past seven seasons. The familiarity a QB has within an offense, or a collegiate football game in general, can pay off in high pressure situations where one play effects the outcome of the game.

How does this experience translate into wins over the long haul?

If you take the total difference in wins from a quarterback's finals season and the season after they leave, and average it, the difference on average is two wins per season.

If reading that paragraph confused you as much as it did me writing it, basically, a three year starter is worth at least two wins per season.

Obviously, this won’t always be the case and there will be a handful of exceptions where a team improves the next season. Leave it to Nick Saban and Alabama to be the only program to replace a three year starter in John Parker Wilson and win the national championship the following year.

Off Topic Side Note: McElroy wasn’t a three year starter, but things are looking eerily similar for Alabama going into 2011. Just like 2009, the Crimson Tide enters the 2011 season with a defense that is shaping up to be the most dominant force in the country. What a nice luxury for an incoming QB.

Outside of the Crimson Tide, there are ten other bowl teams from 2010 that must replace a three year starter who won’t be equipped with a defense that makes the Denver Broncos jealous (yes, Alabama's defense is that good).

Here are my projections for these teams for 2011.

	QB	Final Year	Final Season	Projected 2011*
TCU	Andy Dalton	2010	13-0	10-2
NEV	Colin Kaepernick	2010	13-1	7-5
UTEP	Trevor Vittatoe	2010	6-7	4-8
IDAHO	Nathan Enderle	2010	6-7	4-8
WASH	Jake Locker	2010	7-6	6-6
NC ST	Russell Wilson*	2010	9-4	9-3
VATECH	Tyrod Taylor	2010	11-3	12-0
GATECH	Joshua Nesbitt	2010	6-7	8-4
IOWA	Ricky Stanzi	2010	8-5	10-2
FSU	Christian Ponder	2010	10-4	10-2
	*Bowls and conference championship games excluded

	The Season After
	Worse Season	5/10	50%
	Better Season	3/10	30%
	No Change	2/10	20%
	Not Bowl Eligible	2/10	20%

Disregarding the percentages from the statistical analysis, I analyzed how I thought each team would do on a personal projection basis and not the historical law of averages.

As you can see, my projections for the 2011 season did not end up quite along the percentages that were averaged over the past seven years. It will be interesting to see if the 2011 win total's average out closer to the seven year percentages over what I projected.

Many projections have been made by analysts in preseason rankings assuming John Brantley, Garrett Gilbert, Kodi Burns, and Joe Cox could step in seamlessly and fill the shoes of some of the school’s all-time greats before them. All of those teams started the next season ranked by the AP at #3, #4, #10, and #13 respectively and failed to finish the season even ranked.

It will be interesting to see if EJ Manuel, Logan Thomas, Mike Glennon, and others can buck the overwhelming percentages and avoid some type of decrease in the win column for their teams in 2011.

Follow me on twitter: @DSportsGuide

August 23, 2011

2011 Big East Preview: Analyzing the Odds

The Big East enters this season with only West Virginia ranked in the AP Poll (#24) and zero teams ranked in the Coaches’ Poll, which is a huge slight nationally towards the conference. Betting wise, there is always value in the Big East since there aren’t any powerhouses and this season the league seems fairly wide open.

Part of the openness of the conference resides in the heavy overturn of coaches. There are three first year head coaches (West Virginia, Pittsburgh, Connecticut), three second year head coaches (Louisville, Cincinnati, and South Florida), one third year head coach (Syracuse) and one entering his 11^th season (Rutgers).

New coaches mean new systems and a lot of overhaul for current teams and with the addition of TCU for the 2012 season, it seems the whole conference is in overhaul. This could provide for some juicy betting opportunities if you can identify which teams are ready to break out and contend for the title. After all, this is a league that sent an 8-4 team to a BCS bowl game just last season.

***If you place a wager, please wager responsibly. Do NOT place a wager that is outside your financial means. If you can’t afford to lose that amount, then it is outside your means. There have never been and never will be a LOCK on any particular game. Anything can happen inside the lines on any given day, like a 36 point underdog in Stanford beating USC on the road in 2007.

Now that you plan to wager responsibly, let’s take a look at some Vegas odds on the Big East conference.

Big East Odds

Projected Winner- West Virginia (+125): West Virginia is bringing in a new head coach with an electrifying offensive mind in Dana Holgorson from Oklahoma State. It didn’t take long for the offense at Oklahoma State to adapt to Hologorson’s style and it shouldn’t take long for West Virginia either. Holgorson will have a one luxury at West Virginia that he didn’t have at Oklahoma State, a returning starter at QB.

Geno Smith is the perfect trigger man for the high flying offense with his completion percentage of 64.8% and a TD/Int ratio of 24/7 from the 2010 season. Smith's numbers should be even greater this season, thus vaulting him into the Heisman trophy conversation. There’s little doubt this will be the best offense in the Big East.

The defense returns depth in the secondary, but will have to completely revamp the defensive line and linebacker positions in Jeff Casteel’s 3-3-5 defense. If the defense can be near the top of the conference, it will give the Mountaineers a huge boost in terms of winning the conference.

They start off Big East play at home against Connecticut followed by @Syracuse, @Rutgers, and then home against Louisville. Their schedule is tough down the stretch ending the season with games @Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, and @South Florida. The game at South Florida is on a Thursday night and could possibly be for the conference title. Overall, it is a manageable schedule, but one that presents some tough challenges along the way.

At only +125 odds, it’s hard for this bet to look attractive enough to place any type of large wager on. However, they are BY FAR the most talented team in the conference, so placing a small bet on them would be acceptable.

Value Wager- Rutgers (+2400): Last season was a complete disaster for Rutgers. Schiano tried to install the Wildcat system to get the ball in his play makers hands more often and it never clicked with the offense. For 2011, Rutgers is going back to basics and scrapping the Wildcat. They have a pretty good group of skill position players, which includes stud WR Mohamed Sanu. If their offensive line can improve, they could have a pretty nice offensive unit in general and returning 10 starters always helps. The defense should improve, mostly because it can’t get much worse ,but also because it won’t be on the field as much due to an inept offense like they were last season.

The bases for the real value in this bet is Rutgers has a pretty sweet schedule in Big East play, catching West Virginia, South Florida, Pittsburgh, and Cincinnati (the top four betting favorites) all in Piscataway. I expect the Scarlet Knights to have a redemption season and make some ruckus in the Big East.

They have a lot to overcome, which is why they have the lowest odds, but I see major value in them given their schedule, coaches, and, well, 24-1 on my money. I wouldn’t go crazy with it, but putting a small wager on Rutgers could be more intriguing than most think.

Why Not?
South Florida (+275): They only return 10 starters, which includes QB BJ Daniels who yielded a 11/13 TD-Int ratio last season with only 58.4% accuracy. I'm not sold on Daniels yet and now that he’s been battling a hamstring injury in the preseason it just scares me away further. Skip Holtz is a great coach and they do have a nice schedule, but inconsistent QB play will cost them a game or two they can ill afford to lose.

Pittsburgh (+345): This was an intriguing option for me. They have a lot of talent to work with on defense and I love Todd Graham coming in as the new head coach. I’m concerned about the overhaul that is going to be taking place and it's worrisome that inefficiency on offense could arise. I would rather not put my money on Sunseri being able to make that transition.

Cincinnati (+950): They have the 2nd best QB in the conference in Zach Collaros which I like And I think they will improve this season and find bowl eligibility with ease. They were really close to being my value pick for this conference, but with their five game stretch of @South Florida, @Pittsburgh, West Virginia, @ Rutgers, and @Syracuse, I just don't see them bringing home the hardware.

Louisville (+1150): I really like where this program is headed under Charlie Strong, but they return a very young team in 2011 and have road games at Cincinnati, West Virginia, and South Florida. I can see them contending in 2012 for the conference title, but not this season.

Syracuse (+1700): They caught people by surprise lat season and I'm not sure I can see them extending their 2010 success much further. They should be about the same team in my estimation, which is a good step for their program but not for me as a gambler.

Connecticut (+2300): Randy Edsall left for Maryland and you could feel the deflation in the UCONN program. It’s hard to tell what Pasqualoni brings to the table, but it seems he’s going to try to keep it the same since he retained numerous assistants. With games @West Virginia, @Pittsburgh, and @Cincinnati, I just can’t see the value in this wager.

Comments, questions, and opinions are always encouraged.

Follow me on twitter: @DSportsGuide

August 18, 2011

2011 ACC Preview: Analyzing the Odds

This is the time of year I love gearing up for College Football by analyzing the perspective of the Vegas odds makers. After an off season full of researching, I like comparing my projections to those in Vegas to see how they align.

I enjoy analyzing betting odds on College Football, especially futures. A “future bet” is when a bettor places a wager where the results of the bet are not determined until a later date. For example, today, if you placed a $100 wager on Alabama (+500) to win the BCS Championship game, you are betting on the odds of that happening in the future.

In betting odds plus(+) odds are how much you would win if you bet $100. Basically, at (+500), if you bet $100 you win $500. If the odds are minus(-) odds that is the amount of money you would have to bet to win $100. Basically, at (-200), you have to bet $200 to win $100.

It’s a very simplistic and engaging concept for the average College Football fan, who is not looking to make a living betting on the weekends, to enjoy various games even further.

With the season just weeks away, I’m going to break down various College Football futures in regards to conference odds, win totals, and BCS Championship wagers.

Now that you plan to wager responsibly, let’s take a look at some Vegas odds on the ACC Conference.

Atlantic Division Odds

Projected Winner- Florida State (-200): FSU is the overwhelming favorite with good reason. The program is coming off a 10 win season and they return 16 starters (7 off and 9 def) from last season, including one of the nation’s best defenses.

Their biggest question mark will be breaking in a new starter at Quarterback. EJ Manuel is not your typical “green behind the ears” first year starter as he does have some valuable big game experience- a huge plus. If FSU can replace some reliable starters on the offensive line, then the table should be set for Manuel to have success. Florida State needs him healthy because they are very young and inexperienced down the depth chart.

Overall, the Seminoles have a very favorable schedule in ACC play but they do encounter a few worrisome trap games.

The main concern on the schedule is opening their ACC play with a trip to Clemson the week after their nationally hyped game against Oklahoma- perfect spot for a letdown. Win or lose against OU, they could experience some type of complacent satisfaction or disappointing hangover effect going into Death Valley, one of the toughest places to play in the country.

The other concern is a bit nitpicky, but is the exact type of situation where a team can lose its focus. After playing divisional games against Maryland and NC State, they must turn around in a short week and travel to Boston College for a Thursday night showdown. This is the classic look ahead game with the rival Hurricanes coming into town the next week. It is probably not something to worry about, but it did catch my eye.

With an extremely manageable schedule and a stout defense returning, FSU looks poised to take the Atlantic Division with ease.

Betting wise having to lay those odds is never an attractive bet, especially for a team inheriting a new QB (even though EJ Manuel looks promising). I'd pass because of the Odds, but FSU should win this division.

Value Team -North Carolina State (+1150): Tom O’Brien made a VERY bold move by allowing Russell Wilson to seek a transfer and naming Mike Glennon the starter earlier in the year. He also made a bold statement in comparing Glennon to his former Boston College quarterback, Matt Ryan. I can’t fathom a coach letting a player of Wilson’s caliber walk out the door regardless of the underlying situation. THAT should speak volumes about Glennon’s capabilities and what we can expect from the highly touted recruit.

The Wolfpack return 16 starters from a 2010 team that went 9-4, including a 23-7 Champ Sports Bowl beat down of West Virginia. If Glennon even comes close to living up to the “Ryanesque” hype that O’Brien has placed on him, then the veteran Wolf Pack squad could contend for the division.

They have a very manageable schedule that includes getting Clemson, Maryland, UNC, and Georgia Tech at home, while traveling to Wake Forest, Virginia, an Boston College in ACC play. They almost have the perfect balance of playing their best competition at home and the lesser teams on the road. Almost…

The only clear road block in their schedule is their game at FSU in late October, which, honestly, is a game I could see deciding the Atlantic Division. The Wolfpack were able to beat Florida State at home last year, granted it was on the shoulders of the recently departed Russell Wilson. If they can somehow sneak into Tallahassee and get an upset, their schedule sets up nicely the rest of the way.

Beating FSU on the road seems like a daunting task this season, but as I always say anything can happen on the field. Given the odds, I think NC State is worth a small wager. This is my dark horse for the division.

Why Not?

Maryland (+630): This was almost my dark horse pick but they play @FSU and @NC State, which gives them a huge disadvantage comparatively speaking. Also, a young QB with a new coach and new system could bring growing pains.

Clemson (+680): They are bringing in a completely new system on offense for a young sophomore QB to learn, which scares me, and they have a tough schedule. After a non-conference game with Auburn, they get Florida State at home and then turn around the next week at travel to Virginia Tech – a very tough back to back. They also travel to Maryland, Georgia Tech, and NC State. Overall, it’s a very difficult conference schedule.

Boston College (+1050): Once October hits they have one of the toughest overall schedules I’ve seen so far. They have three consecutive road games at Clemson, Virginia Tech, and Maryland, only to return home the next two weeks to face Florida State and North Carolina State. They then have a tough non-conference game @Notre Dame and finish off the season @Miami. They might be primed for an upset or two, but not winning the division.

Wake Forest (+8500): Do I really have to detail why this is a bad bet or can I just point out the fact that you would be wasting some perfectly good beer money?

Coastal Division Odds

Projected Winner-Virginia Tech (-130): In 2010, Virginia Tech began their season with a crushing loss to Boise State and an all-time epic hangover loss to James Madison which left many doubting the Hokies. They managed to regroup and win their next ten games, crushing their ACC opponents along the way to a BCS bowl.

This year the defending ACC champs return four senior starters on one of the best offensive lines in the nation. This is good news for redshirt Sophomore QB Logan Thomas, who has big shoes to fill replacing Tyrod Taylor. All indications are he is ready for the job. Thomas should have plenty of weapons to utilize down the field as the Hokies return all their wide receivers from the previous season.

Their defense should be strong as usual (especially in the front seven), although they are a little young in the secondary. Bud Foster is an incredible coordinator who you can always count on coaching his defenses into a menacing force.

Their schedule is amazing! Their toughest games are at home (Clemson, Miami, UNC, BC) and games against the lower echelon of the ACC (Wake Forest, Duke, Georgia Tech, and Virginia) are on the road. The only road game where I see a potential trip up for the Hokies is their Thursday night meeting at Georgia Tech, but they will be coming off a bye from the previous week, so they should be rested and focused.

A team this talented in the trenches with a perfect situational schedule should be a heavier favorite to win this division. I would eat a little juice here and place a nice sized wager on Virginia Tech to win the division.

Value Team- Georgia Tech (+2400): Paul Johnson has a great program in place at Georgia Tech and players waiting in the wings to step up in his triple option offense. If his offense can cut down on their turnovers from last season, especially fumbles, they should be a lot more effective than they were last season.

Defensively, this team has the ability to vastly improve in their 2^ndseason under Al Groh. Their front seven has received good reviews this off season which will hopefully help offset the question marks in the secondary.

Their schedule is shaping up to be manageable, especially with turmoil at Miami and UNC. They manage to avoid Florida State and catch UNC, Maryland, Clemson, and Virginia Tech at home. Their road games are at NC State, Virginia, Miami, and Duke. With Miami looking questionable and weakened at this point (although no suspensions have been handed out), it definitely helps their road schedule seem a little bit easier.

The odds for Georgia Tech are high for a reason, but there is certain value with this team. I really believe this is Virginia Tech’s division to take, but I could see myself placing a small wager on this given the schedule and coaching staff.

Why Not?

Miami (+275): Let’s pretend that this program isn’t about to go up in flames with NCAA sanctions and I had to analyze this team as if everything was normal. I am not a believer in either of their QB’s being able to win games for the Hurricanes. Also, they now have to operate behind a line without stud tackle Seantrel Henderson, who may miss the entire season, and they lack any proven commodities at the skill positions. Their schedule doesn’t do them any favors either with road games at Maryland, Virginia Tech, UNC, and Florida State.

North Carolina (+360): Do I really need to list a reason not to like a team who fired their head coach two weeks before camp starts? Their defensive line should be one of the best in the nation and new QB, Bryn Renner, comes highly touted. They have enough talent to create a ruckus, but the odds are too low for my taste given the coaching situation.

Virginia (+2700): They might have an upset here and there, but not enough talent to pull off the division. Their tough schedule in ACC play, featuring games at UNC, Miami, Maryland, and Florida State, won’t do them enough favors to consider them making a run.

Duke (+9000): They could have a potent passing game and if they can put up 60+ PPG, they might have a chance. However, if you want to make this bet, please don’t, and wait until basketball season to bet on the Blue Devils. Its a lot more fun to root for them while Dickie V is shouting.

ACC Champion Odds

Florida State (+150)

Virginia Tech (+280)

Miami (+700)

North Carolina (+800)

Maryland (+1600)

Clemson (+1750)

Boston College (+2700)

NC State (+3000)

Georgia Tech (+5500)

Virginia (+6300)

Duke (+22000)

Wake Forest (+2200)

This conference presents a lot of value due to the fact the two favorites are bringing in new QB’s and the 3rd and 4th favorites (UNC and Miami) are experiencing serious turmoil. I think this gives a great opportunity to teams with favorable home/away scheduling this season.

In the end, I believe the championship game will feature the two divisional favorites in Florida State and Virginia Tech. At this point, I have to give Virginia Tech the slight edge because I think they are better in the trenches. Also, since joining the ACC the Hokies are 28-3 beyond November 1^st in conference play under Beamer, meaning they get rolling late. They also present better value on my money in a matchup I believe to be almost dead even.