Check out my article posted on The Victory Bells Blog in the Red Raider Sports section on the Y! Rivals platform.
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September 21, 2011
September 14, 2011
Could the LHN actually hurtTexas' recruiting efforts in the ACC?
Money talks, but it don’t pass and catch and it don’t block. As long as I can have my Be-vo TV, I’d much rather be in the A-C-C….
I’m almost positive when Neil Diamond wrote the hit song “Forever in Blue Jeans,” the last thing he imagined was a Longhorn Network Parody.
I can’t say I’m surprised though, since the Longhorn Network seems to spawn the unexpected among college football normalcy and life in general.
The Longhorn Network has turned Texas and the Big 12 into a leprosy colony since last summer. Nebraska, Colorado, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State couldn’t wait to get the hell away from both entities by jumping off the island mirage of conference paradise into open waters for whichever passing boat would have them (Big 10, Pac 12, SEC).
Now, because of the LHN, Texas might be sent off to the only conference that will save their soul- the ACC. I’m sure that’s hardly the euphoric vision the university had when finalizing their deal with ESPN.
West of the Mississippi river, the ACC isn't held in high regard when it comes to football. ACC football games are thought of as the boring games on TV before the good ones kickoff to the average fan. Of course, as a college football enthusiast I disagree, but will highly touted recruits share my sentiments?
The quality of the SEC rings loud in the state of Texas and the Aggies are a sleeping giant who might have found their alarm clock. Texas A&M may never reach the excellence of Texas, but if the Longhorns head to the ACC they weaken their recruiting stature in the Lone Star state.
Don’t get me wrong, I am NOT saying Texas' recruiting rankings are going to plunge or become inferior to the Aggies. However, a door will open for A&M to steal some recruits from Texas they wouldn't normally have a chance to get because the SEC is a far superior football conference compared to the ACC.
This is going to be a problem for Texas regardless of where they end up, but here is my point illustrated in mathematical nomenclature:
SEC > PAC 16 > Big 10 > Independent > LHN Conference (Big 12 leftovers) > ACC
Out of all the options Texas can offer recruits regarding the quality of conference play, the ACC is the least appealing. That’s a huge disadvantage if you’re trying to persuade wavering recruits to come to Texas over A&M.
What happens when recruits like Malcolm Brown, Jaxon Shipley, or Quandre Diggs would rather play in the Pac 16 or SEC? Suddenly College Station and Norman do not seem like such bad places to be, rather than Austin+ACC. By going to the ACC, Texas would be self-inflicting wounds to the recruiting monster they’ve created in Austin.
If Texas has a drop off of the embarrassing riches of talent they are used to, then the play on the field could be inconsistent year in and year out. Instead of reloading players, you have to replace the great ones and losing stud recruits here and there does not help your cause. Being a national power house does not come from coaching, it comes from recruiting.
Is the LHN worth the possibility of making Texas a less attractive option for recruits, thus hindering the performance on the field?
In the Big 12, the furthest Texas would ever have to travel for a conference road game is to Iowa State. If they go solo to the ACC, the closest possible conference road game ( at Florida State) is the same distance as their trip to Ames, IA. That's a lot of extra traveling that adds up over the course of a season and that can't be good for a football team needing to win key games at the end of the season. Fans won't like it either.
Regardless where the Longhorns end up, their traveling hours are going to increase. However, at least in the PAC 16 format they would still have road games against familiar foes (Texas Tech and Oklahoma State) within a 7 hour drive or cheap 60-90 minute flights. Florida State is around a 14 hour drive and the flights are 2-3 times as expensive. How is that going affect recruits whose parents want to travel to see their kids play?
Side Note: I assume the game against Red River Rivalry against Oklahoma will continue regardless of where Texas ends up. If for some reason an ACC departure for Texas results in this games loss, then this becomes an ever bigger issue in this whole mess.
Financially, this would be the best move for Texas assuming the ACC is the only conference that lets them keep their network. However, keeping the money associated with the LHN does not help the Longhorns increase the branding power they were hoping to get out of their TV channel with the ACC attached to it.
Having an abundance of money for your university is great, but it doesn’t necessarily help you win football games. When was the last time you saw Harvard win a national championship?
It's amazing how a program with the history and bravado of Texas can be so unwanted because of a network that is only a few months old. It seems years of exerting their power and riches has finally caught up with the leprosy Longhorns. Hopefully, for their sake, the money grab maneuver to the ACC won't stifle their recruiting efforts or play on the field.
Forget about the money though. Texas' pride is on the line here and they aren't going to let a bunch of pipsqueaks ruin their network, even if it means setting up shop in the ACC.
When it comes to the Longhorn Network, for Texas, the ACC never seemed so good (so good, so good).
It's amazing how a program with the history and bravado of Texas can be so unwanted because of a network that is only a few months old. It seems years of exerting their power and riches has finally caught up with the leprosy Longhorns. Hopefully, for their sake, the money grab maneuver to the ACC won't stifle their recruiting efforts or play on the field.
Forget about the money though. Texas' pride is on the line here and they aren't going to let a bunch of pipsqueaks ruin their network, even if it means setting up shop in the ACC.
When it comes to the Longhorn Network, for Texas, the ACC never seemed so good (so good, so good).
September 12, 2011
Bi-Weekly Poll and Breakdown After Week 2
It's sad I do not have a vote in the AP Poll because I would love to have an influence (albeit a small one) on the national landscape of college football. However, I do have a vote in the D Sports Guide Bi-Weekly College Football Poll, which you will see below.
Instead of just slapping a boring list together, I wanted to give you a little bit of insight about each team and a reason for their ranking. Instead of laboring through a poll every week, I feel a bi-weekly progress report is more appropriate, especially this early in the season.
Below are my Top 25 teams in college football after week two. Also, at the bottom you will see the next five teams out (26-30) and off the radar teams who I think could build a resume worthy of being ranked in the near future.
After Week 2
1. Oklahoma (1-0): The Sooners defense held a potent Tulsa offense to 14 points in week one, which is a great sign for a unit that entered the season with a lot of questions. Next week, they will have the opportunity to justify their #1 ranking when they travel to Tallahassee to face Florida State.
2. Alabama (2-0): There are games where the Crimson Tide could leave their offense in the locker room and still have a chance to win the game- their defense is that good. Trent Richardson is rolling and AJ McCarron looked effective on the road in front of 100,000. I must be stuck in 2009 because this team looks all too familiar. Somebody please help me.
3. LSU (2-0): Their defensive line was impressive against Oregon and for an encore they decided to hold Northwestern State to -4 yards rushing. As long as they continue to get effective play from the QB position, this should be a team we are watching well into 2012. Their next game on Thursday night at Mississippi State will be the next stiff test for the Tigers against a great rushing attack.
4. Boise State (1-0): Watching Georgia battle a top 15 caliber South Carolina team to the wire gave me a whole new respect for Boise. They treated their trip to Atlanta like a business trip and just wanted to get in, dominate, win, and get out. They are every bit as good in the trenches as any team in the nation and with Kellen Moore leading the way, I’m begging for a reason to put them in the national championship game.
5. Wisconsin (2-0): I want to move to Madison, Wisconsin because Christmas comes early there, and I love Christmas. Russell Wilson was a gift to the Badgers this offseason. His experience and ability to manage a game make it nearly impossible for opposing defenses to hone in on the Badgers rushing attack. Oh, the defense isn’t too shabby either.
6. Texas A&M (1-0): Ryan Tannehill looked every bit as good against SMU as he did last season after taking over for Jerrod Johnson. Cyrus Gray and Christine Michael look like one of the best RB tandems in the country and the same could be said for Jeff Fuller and Ryan Swope at WR. Tim DeRuyter’s defense will be thoroughly tested in the near future against some very potent offenses in Oklahoma State, Arkansas, @Texas Tech, and Baylor. If they continue to improve from last season, we could be talking about the Aggies in the national championship game. Crazy.
7. Oklahoma State (2-0): We could talk about Weeden2Blackmon all day long after the Heisman trophy duo put on a clinic against Arizona last Thursday. However, the unsung hero so far in this offense has to be Joseph Randle. Behind an experienced offensive line, Randle has racked up 250yds and 4 TDs, both top 15 in the nation. That’s pretty impressive when you consider Oklahoma State’s offense is 3rd in the nation in passing attempts.
8. Stanford (2-0): So far, so good for Andrew Luck and the Cardinals as seem to be picking up where they left off last season. They have their first test at Arizona this Saturday, which should tell us how dominant this team really is. Otherwise, it will be over a month before another formidable opponent appears on the schedule.
9. Florida State (2-0): What is there to say about this team? EJ Manuel looks good against weaker competition, although a couple of turnovers are concerning. Their game against Oklahoma this weekend will tell us all we need to know about Florida State’s ceiling this season.
10. Arkansas (2-0): Bobby Petrino’s offense under Tyler Wilson looks every bit as good, if not better, than it did last season under Ryan Mallet. They have the ultimate test coming up in two weeks when they travel to Alabama. They will need to prove they can run the ball effectively without their star RB from last season, Knile Davis, to have a chance to win and take the next step into serious BCS discussions. If not, then you could see Alabama’s defense teeing up on Tyler Wilson all night long.
11. Oregon (1-1): Oregon chose wisely this week when they went with yellow uniforms against Nevada because they looked like they were running at the speed of light past the Wolfpack's defense all day. They put up a ridiculous 69 points while Darron Thomas had 6 of his 19 passing attempts go in for touchdowns. It’s going to be hard for them to get back into the BCS title picture after their offense was dismantled against one of the best defensive lines in the SEC. However, they will not face a defense even remotely close to the level of LSU’s the rest of the season and would be a good bet to be in a BCS bowl in January.
12. South Carolina (2-0): Two games, two wins, and too many questions would be an adequate way to depict the Gamecocks season at this point. If I was the offensive coordinator, my play calling would be as follows: 1st down: Give the rock to Marcus Lattimore. 2nd down: Give the rock to Marcus Lattimore. 3rd down: Give the rock to Marcus Lattimore. Stephen Garcia looks like he intends to continue his mono-drama of “Which Stephen will I be” with his uncanny ability to be completely unpredictable. As long as the defense tightens up and reveals their potential they should be fine. This is a talented team that should get back to the SEC championship game this season.
13. Nebraska (2-0): As expected, Taylor Martinez’s legs are working great this season and his ability as a passer remains questionable at best. The more surprising (and concerning) aspect of this Nebraska team was their inability to get pressure or stop the run against a weak Fresno State team. They still have a long way to go if they plan on dominating the B1G this season. Next up, a redemption match from an embarrassing bowl loss against Washington last season.
14. Michigan State (2-0): They haven’t been tested yet this season, but taking care of business is what good teams do. Next week will when t hey travel to South Bend will be their first opportunity to justify their ranking (as if their 11 win season in 2010 wasn’t enough). Vegas opened Sparty as five point underdogs against 0-2 Notre Dame. If you listen closely this week, you can actually hear the sound of axes grinding.
15. Virginia Tech (2-0): The good news is the Hokies defense is back this season after holding a potent East Carolina team to 10pts and 112yds of total offense. The bad news, Logan Thomas looks too much like a tight end playing quarterback. As long as they keep handing the ball off to David Wilson, the Hokies should continue to survive their easy schedule. However, they need Thomas to get better and fast.
16. West Virginia (2-0): Future opponents should hope that whatever Dana Holgorson said to his team at halftime last week he never says again. After trailing at half, Geno Smith and the Mountaineers finished the game by a 2nd half margin of 45-0. They have a tough game next week at Maryland where they can’t afford to come out sluggish or peeking ahead to LSU. I expect them to be fully focused regardless of what Halloween costumer Maryland is wearing that game.
17. Auburn (2-0): There is something about this team under Gene Chizik where they find a way to win. Despite giving up 333yds rushing, they were able to finish off Mississippi State with a game ending goal line stand. Things do not get any easier for the Tigers, in fact with @Clemson, @South Carolina, @Arkansas, Florida, @LSU, @ Georgia, and Alabama still on the schedule, they get a lot worse. But for now, they still boast the nation’s longest winning streak and an impressive win last weekend.
18. Ohio State (2-0): Toledo, who is not a bad team by any means, gave Buckeye nation quite a scare last Saturday. Either, Ohio State had an off day or they are about to get exposed when B1G play begins. Joe Bauserman did not have a very good game and I’m sure Buckeye fans are wondering why Braxton Miller spent the whole day on the sidelines. A road game against the Hurricanes next week should give us a better idea about the quality of Ohio State this season. Unless, some one whispers the name Charles Robinson and both teams scurry off the field, run home whimpering, and hide under their bed covers with the door locked (I couldn't resist).
19. Florida (2-0): There isn’t a whole lot to say about Florida as they’ve creamed two meager opponents by a combined score of 80-3. Brantley looks better this season and Chris Rainey has been electrifying. They will get their first test next Satruday when they face Tennessee led by Tyler Bray. Watch out secondary.
20. South Florida (2-0): This year BJ Daniels has 69 passing attempts through two games where as last year it took almost four games for him to have that many. Its obvious head coach Skip Holtz trust Daniels can now pass the ball and limit interceptions, something Daniels struggled with last season. Opening the season with a win in South Bend shows what this team is capable of when quarterback play is no longer an issue.
21. Michigan (2-0): Something about Notre Dame brings out the “ball till you fall” persona within Denard Robinson. Even though he had three bad interceptions only Garrett Gilbert would feel good about, he was still there to make plays when his team needed him the most. After all, he did scoop up a Michigan fumble near the goal line and run it in for a touchdown. Add in the fact the defense is quickly improving and making their own luck, Brady Hoke has a little something cooking in Ann Arbor.
22. Mississippi State (1-1): This has to be a frustrating loss for Dan Mullen and the Bulldogs. They had a great opportunity to go get a solid SEC road win over the rebuilding national champs, but fell short in the end. They can turn their fortunes around sooner rather than later with a marquee win over LSU on prime time this Thursday night. The question is “How many cowbells will it take to open up a running lane for Vick Ballard?” Hopefully not too many otherwise no one will know if the cows escape during the game.
23. Baylor (1-0): I’ve never been so eager to see Baylor play their next football game in my life, much less cared if they played one at all. That’s how AWESOME RG3 and Kendall Wright were against TCU. Also, you could see the influence of Phil Bennett on the defense, but they have a long way to go before they are the reason the Bears win any games. It will be interesting to see how far their offense can take them in spite of their defense.
24. Arizona State (2-0): The Sun Devils were able to pull off a nice win Friday night over a hobbled Mizzou team, even though, at times, it seemed they thought it would be awkward if they did. Brock Osweiler looked outstanding, as expected, and Aaron Pflugrad looked like he had pine tar on his gloves. However, the history of excess inopportune penalties for Dennis Erickson coached teams is going to catch up to them and cost them some games eventually. That makes it hard to put a lot of stock in this team in the long run and by long run, i mean next week at Illinois.
25. USC (2-0): The Trojans are far removed from the non-sanctioned glory that was the Pete Carroll era. Their defense looks good and the Barkley to Woods connection is off to a hot start. They have a lot of young talent which should result in more wins in unspectacular fashion.
Next five out
UCF (2-0): They ended up running away from an undermanned Boston College squad last weekend. I love what this team brings to the table but let’s see how they fair in their next two road games at FIU and BYU.
TCU (1-1): Casey Pachall looks like he is going to be a worthy replacement for 2nd round pick Andy Dalton. TCU got back on track with a great road win against a good triple option team in Air Force, who was unable to exploit the obvious holes in the secondary like Baylor. TCU’s next test won’t be until they face a high octane passing team like SMU.
Texas (2-0): Five stars next to your name sure gives you a longer leash than most people. I have no idea what to expect from the Longhorns offense, which is too bad because their defense looks like it is going to be good. Either way, both wins have been unimpressive and if the jerseys had a different name on the front I doubt they would receive any votes.
Tennessee (2-0): It’s been like night and Bray (get it) for the Volunteers to begin 2011 compared to last season. Tyler Bray looks outstanding and it doesn’t hurt he has two dangerous weapons at his disposal in Da’Rick Rogers and Justin Hunter. Their next game at Florida will tell us if this is a mirage or if the Volunteers are on their way back.
Mizzou (1-1): James Franklin did everything he could to carry his make shift supporting cast to victory Friday night. If healthy, I believe the Tigers would’ve won Friday by double digits and are the caliber of a top 20 team.
Don’t Say I didn’t warn you about: Texas Tech, North Carolina, Clemson, Illinois, and Georgia Tech
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September 7, 2011
September 1, 2011
Why Larry Scott must become Chuck Norris
With Texas A&M embarking on a journey to the SEC to find themselves, the Big 12 scurries to find a solid replacement to strengthen the conference. The official public position of the remaining nine members in the fragmented conference is that the Big 12 is an entity worth saving. However, if you take a hard look between the lines, it feels Texas is the only school that truly has those feelings.
And why shouldn’t they? The Longhorns can feel their omnipotent reign over the Big 12 conference slowly slipping out of the grasp in which they control it. Their conference “partners”, who they have built a burnt orange wall of dependence around, have found cracks in Big 12 landscape and are strategically positioning themselves to escape in the middle of the night.
Texas knows if the Big 12 can move swiftly and bring in quality replacements for their recently departed programs, then public pressure will force Oklahoma to stay. If Oklahoma stays, that means Oklahoma State and Texas Tech will remain. Missouri doesn’t look like they are going anywhere either as the SEC hasn’t called yet and the Big 10 isn’t calling them back. In this case, Texas regains their stranglehold on the Big 12, and their pockets remain fat from conference and ESPN dollars.
However, if any of those four teams leave (OU, OKST, TTU, Mizz), then this conference will fall faster than a man on stilts fighting a ninja.
It’s time for Larry Scott to become that ninja.
For the sake of the Pac 12, Larry Scott better elicit his inner Chuck Norris and deliver one, swift, roundhouse kick to the Big 12.
The SEC and Big 10 have the luxury to be more methodical about conference expansion. They have numerous geographical options around them with quality teams from the Big East, ACC, and Big 12 conferences. Geographically, he Pac 12 has the Big 12, Mountain West, and the WAC.
Larry Scott is on record saying he believes 16 team super conferences are the future in college football, so why not continue expanding now? If the Big 12 consolidates back into a sturdy and steady commodity, what other options are there for expansion in the future- Air Force, Boise State, BYU, Hawaii, Nevada? Poaching Big East or ACC teams would be a nightmare on the athletic budget for both parties and it would never work out.
The fact is, the Pac 12 has very few illustrious commodities to choose from outside of the Big 12. Before Texas gets the Big 12 back on solid ground, Scott must attack it. How though?
Invite Texas Tech to the party.
They are the perfect card to pull to make the Big 12 house of cards fall down. Texas Tech’s athletic director, Kirby Hocutt, recently stated “Our focus will continue to be on what’s best for Texas Tech University and what’s best for Texas Tech University is continuing to be a proud member of the Big 12 Conference and a part of the Big 12 Conference in the future.” Look, Texas Tech is a great university, but Hocutt and Texas Tech know they don’t have any other options, which is why they must pledge their allegiance to the Big 12. Hocutt’s statement clearly leaves Texas Tech’s commitment to the Big 12 in flux, since he also states he will do what’s best for Texas Tech.
If a stable and equal revenue sharing conference, like the Pac 12, were to extend an invite to Tech, it’s almost certain they would make the transition as it would be a overall option for the university. Unlike Joe Castiglione at Oklahoma, it’s pretty certain that Hocutt and company would receive little, if any, public backlash in making this decision. They are a great fit geographically out of West Texas and would bring in a piece of the Texas market for the Pac 12- which is important and I’ll explain why in a minute.
If Texas Tech leaves, the Big 12 is down to eight members, which severely cripples the conference. Finding two logical fits comparable to the quality of Texas A&M and Texas Tech would be almost impossible. Remember, the conference needs 10 teams or their TV deal is void and patching it up with programs like SMU and Houston would be embarrassing for the remaining members (no offense to those schools).
Now, with Big 12 landscape looking extremely unstable, Oklahoma will have no choice bolt for the Pac 12. There are rumblings that this is what the Sooners have wanted all along, but huge ties to the importance of their rivalry with Texas have prevented them from making the leap. Castiglione can publicly position Oklahoma’s decision to join the Pac 12 as one out of absolute necessity for Sooner athletics. This will help prevent any detrimental side effects to a very important tradition (and moneymaker) in the Red River Rivalry with Texas.
Now that Oklahoma has accepted their invite, Oklahoma State will also be invited and any political drama avoided. Even though Oklahoma State won’t build the Pac 12 brand the same way Oklahoma will, they are a first class athletic program backed by a lot of booster dollars that will keep the product on the field at a high level.
Now that Texas Tech, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State are in the Pac 12, the Big 12 is officially dead. Chuck Norris is still undefeated.
Now the Pac 12 is in a position of power to negotiate with Texas, who has stated emphatically they do not want to be an independent entity. The main issue that blocked realignment last summer was Larry Scott’s stance on the Longhorn Network. Scott thought didn’t think it would be beneficial for his vision of a Pac 12 network and unfair to other members of the conference. Texas and the Pac 12 couldn’t come to an agreement.
It’s understandable why this was non-negotiable for Texas last summer. In the Big 12, they are allowed their network and it’s $300 million dollars on top of the money they get from the Big 12 conference deals. Obviously, this is why the Longhorns are fighting so hard to keep the Big 12 alive.
Only in Austin, TX is there, literally, such thing as a cash cow (Hi Bevo).
Last summer, the Big 12 was still standing, so it didn’t make financial sense to drop their network opportunity and join the Pac 12. In this scenario, the Big 12 has fallen, so now would Texas be more agreeable to terms that would allow them to join the Pac 12? I can think of $300 million reasons why they won’t.
Even though, ideally, the Pac 12 and Texas want each other, I’m not sure these two could ever agree on a wedding date. If, ever, there was a scenario where the Pac 12 could get Texas to compromise, this is it.
So, let’s say Texas doesn’t join the Pac 12 and the conference is still looking for one more member, who is it? Naturally you would think Missouri, but a different school comes to mind for me.
The TCU Horned Frogs.
TCU has recently parlayed its success in the Mountain West into an invite from the Big East. The quality of their football program, on and off the field, is growing at a rapid pace. TCU would give the Pac 12 a double dip into the Texas market- a move that Sports Business Expert, Kristi Dosh agrees with in her super conference column. Recently, Dan Wetzel of Yahoo! Sports has also presented the “TCU Double Dip Theory” in one of his columns, saying the SEC should invite the Horned Frogs to help double down in their newly expanded Texas TV market. TCU’s Texas ties should be far more appealing to the Pac 12, compared to Missouri.
By sending the first invite to Texas Tech, the Pac 12 leaves their options open in the Texas market. If they were to take Texas, they are most likely going to have to take Texas Tech anyways. If they can't get Texas, then they leave their options open to grab the next best option in the Texas market, TCU.
Now with Texas Tech and TCU, the new Pac 16 has the best available pipelines into Texas.
By acting brash, Larry Scott could put his conference in position to add four perennial Top 25 caliber football programs and a massive amount of TV sets.
If he sits back while Texas and Dan Beebe work feverishly to save the Big 12 conference, he could be stuck with low quality, filler program from the Mountain West and the WAC as his only option for realignment. Adding teams like Air Force, Boise State, BYU, Hawaii, and Nevada, would certainly make the Pac 16 conference the “Big East” of the super conferences, which wouldn’t be all that “super” for them.
For the sake of the Pac 12's future, Scott needs to be aggressive with his actions.
Somewhere in Lubbock, a secretary answers the phone….
“Excuse me, Mr. Hocutt. I have Chuck Norris on line one.”
“Excuse me, Mr. Hocutt. I have Chuck Norris on line one.”
2011 SEC Preview: Analyzing the Odds
The SEC conference will try to capture its sixth consecutive national championship in 2011 and with eight teams ranked in the preseason AP Poll, they have a pretty damn good chance of making it happen.
Once again, this conference is loaded with talent and should be difficult to navigate through unscathed. Last year, Auburn and South Carolina met in the SEC championship game. Auburn was rated in the preseason as 4th in the West division, while South Carolina was 3rd in the East.
If you can find it, there is always great value, betting wise, in the SEC.
***If you place a wager, please wager responsibly. Do NOT place a wager that is outside your financial means. If you can’t afford to lose that amount, then it is outside your means. There have never been and never will be a LOCK on any particular game. Anything can happen inside the lines on any given day, like a 36 point underdog in Stanford beating USC on the road in 2007.
Now that you plan to wager responsibly, let’s take a look at some Vegas odds on the SEC Conference.
East
Projected Winner- South Carolina (+200): The Gamecocks return the division’s most proven and talented offense, which isn’t actually saying much comparatively speaking. If they can get consistent play out of QB Stephen Garcia, then this offense should be able to maximize the talents of Marcus Lattimore and Alshon Jeffery. South Carolina, potentially, could have one of the best defensive lines in the nation. The unit has a great blend of experienced returning upperclassmen and highly touted recruits coming in. They will need their secondary to improve from last season to truly be a dominate unit.
They have a great schedule in the fact that they do not have to play Alabama or LSU, but they do have games at Mississippi State and Arkansas from the West. Also, they do travel to Georgia, which is a disadvantage, but the Bulldogs will be coming off a tough game against Boise State, which should help. I think South Carolina matches up extremely well with Georgia and should be able to go into Athens and get a win. Overall, it’s not the easiest schedule, but it is one a team with South Carolina's talent can maneuver through.
The Gamecocks are the most talented and experienced team in the East division and I’m not sure anyone can argue that. They have some tough road games, but this team is fully capable of going into hostile environments and leaving with wins. Given the various situations with the other schools in the East, I think this team is a fairly safe bet for the division.
Why Not
Georgia (+180): The Bulldog’s schedule is so ridiculously easy that it is almost impossible to pass on them. Not only do they get South Carolina at home and Florida at a neutral site, but they avoid Alabama, LSU, and Arkansas. The schedule sets up beautifully! However, their offense is a huge question mark outside of Aaron Murray and they have little experience at the skill positions. They should improve defensively, but the front seven doesn’t have any type of proven pass rush or run stuffing ability to speak of. This team doesn’t match up well with Boise State or South Carolina and if they start 0-2, the rest of the season could be very uncomfortable.
Florida (+190): Another coaching overhaul this offseason for the Gators could cause them to struggle early in the season. Depth and experience are two things this football team lacks in numerous areas. Unlike South Carolina and Georgia, the Gators must play Alabama and @LSU. Add the fact they must travel to South Carolina and a bet on the Gators seems very unappealing at such low odds.
Tennessee (+900): This is an extremely young, but talented, team that has upset potential in them this season. Their schedule features road games at Florida, Alabama, and Arkansas, and visits from LSU, Georgia, and South Carolina. It’s a very tough schedule for a team that is not quite there yet, so I’ll have to pass on the Volunteers.
Kentucky (+3300): I don’t think they will win the division, but this team shouldn’t be taken too lightly. They have a very interesting schedule and if there was a value wager in this division, it would be this team. However, it is way too much of a dreamer’s bet to actually put money on the Wildcats.
Vanderbilt (+7500): I’m almost starting to believe Vanderbilt is the highest paid sacrificial lamb in all of college football and the SEC has been hoodwinking us this whole time making us believe they are an actual member of the SEC.
West
Projected Winner- Alabama (-140): Usually, I like to begin with each team’s offense in these previews, but Alabama’s defense is too good not to come first. Their linebackers and secondary are stacked with NFL talent and if their defensive line can get any type of production remotely similar to that of Marcell Dareus, it might be impossible to score on them. The defense is going to be that good. Offensively, they should be solid in the running game with four starters returning on the line and Heisman candidate, Trent Richardson, in the backfield. If they can get effective passing and game management from their new quarterback, this team will be hard to stop.
Schedule wise, they get their two toughest opponents (LSU and Arkansas) in T-Town, which gives them a huge advantage in any tie breaker scenario. They have manageable road games at Florida, Mississippi State and Auburn, so if they can avoid too many slip ups, things should shape up nicely for the Crimson Tide.
Alabama has an extremely talented team and if they can get adequate play from the quarterback position, winning the SEC will be an afterthought by the time the season ends. Betting wise, I don’t find the value in Alabama too intriguing to put any type of sizeable bet on them. They are breaking in a new quarterback in the toughest conference in the nation, which is not easy to do. Nick Saban’s track record helps ease my concerns, so I think a small bet might be worth it in the end.
Value Wager- Mississippi State (+1300): The Bulldog’s are entering their third season under Dan Mullen and the expectations have never been so high at Mississippi State. Quarterback Chris Relf will need to continue to improve as a passer for this team to take the next step. Offensively, they have RB Vick Ballard back to lean on behind an offensive line that returns three starters, though, they will miss T Derrick Sherrod, who departed for the NFL. The Bulldogs should have one of the best secondaries in the SEC and be stingy in the defensive line. The real concern for the defense is continuing in the right direction without last years defensive coordinator, Manny Diaz.
The Bulldogs have an appeasing schedule, which makes them attractive as a dark horse team. They get Alabama, South Carolina, and LSU at home – games they would have a tougher time winning on the road. They still must travel to Auburn and Georgia, who they match up well against. A game on the road against Arkansas in Fayetteville could be a tough one to steal for the win column. Overall, it’s a huge advantage to get the divisional juggernauts at home, where the Bulldogs play tough. Last season they almost beat national champs Auburn and lost out to Arkansas in double overtime, both at home.
All of the components needed by any dark horse to make a run are present for Mississippi State. They’re a team coming off one of the best seasons in school history and return a plethora of upperclassmen starters, including the starting senior quarterback. They are entering their third season under one of the hottest coaches in college football. Their schedule breaks nicely for them where their hardest competition is at home. What else could a dark horse possibly ask for? I expect this team to compete every week in the SEC and given all their dark horse qualities, I will be placing a little bet on them to steal the division.
Why Not
LSU (+275): Jordan Jefferson and Russell Shepard are both facing indefinite suspensions at the moment and the offense really doesn't have an identity. They also travel to Alabama and Mississippi State (Thursday night games are tough). Defensively, they lost their best player makers from 2010 to the NLF draft, which included the electrifying return ability of Patrick Peterson. They will be good, but not worth my money at these odds.
Arkansas (+915): If it wasn’t for scheduled road games at Alabama and LSU, this would have to be the dark horse pick. Arkansas should be highly competitive this season and if you felt like you wanted this to be your dark horse, I couldn’t blame you.
Auburn (+1800): They return only seven starters from their 2010 national championship team. Auburn is a legit program, but their scheduled road games at South Carolina, Arkansas, LSU, and Georgia are brutal and may be too much to overcome to get the wins they need.
Mississippi (+3300): This team should be improved and become bowl eligible this season, but I don’t think they will have the squad to pull it off. Although, you never know with Houston Nutt and they do have Georgia, Alabama, Arkansas, and LSU at home. I would keep an eye on them, just in case.
SEC Champion
Alabama (+205):
Florida (+460):
Georgia (+475):
LSU (+475):
South Carolina (+625):
Arkansas (+1750):
Mississippi State (+2200):
Tennessee (+2200):
Auburn (+3700):
Kentucky (+8500):
Mississippi (+8500):
Vanderbilt (+18500):
I expect to see the SEC championship game feature Alabama and South Carolina, with the state of Alabama winning this thing again.
Projected Winner- Alabama (+205)
Value Team- Mississippi State (+2200)
Comments and opinions are always encouraged.
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