Coming from Japan: Yu v Daisuke

After 30 days of negotiating, it's official: Yu Darvish is a Texas Ranger.


You can put it in 3-inch headlines. The Rangers have put all their eggs into the Yu Darvish basket.

Even with all the excitement for Yu's arrival to DFW, skepticism still looms. The translation for Japanese pitchers to the major leagues can be best summed up by a native proverb:

Loose translation: Don't count your chickens before they've hatched.

In 2007, Boston fans rejoiced as the Red Sox shelled out $103 million to acquire a Japanese phenom in Daisuke Matsuzaka. Fans, analyst, and talking heads everywhere were convinced Matsuzaka was going to rule the majors in furious fashion. The hype was outrageous considering the guy had yet to throw a professional pitch on American soil.

As it turned out, those chickens never hatched and the pursuit of Matsuzaka only left egg on the face of Red Sox GM Theo Epstein.

Now it's Daniel's turn to sweat every scheduled start of his high dollar import, as he hopes the due diligence of his scouting department produces the expected returns. Fair or unfair, it's only natural that Matsuzaka's overall epic failure in the majors will draw comparisons and concerns about Yu Darvish.

While the comparisons aren't unfounded, it can be dangerous to lump groups of people together, especially with such a small sample size.

Seriously, not everyone in Texas rides a horse.

I can't sit here and say I've watched Yu pitch in anything more than YouTube highlights, so my "scouting" analysis comparing him to Matsuzaka would be laughable.

However, numbers don't lie and there are some definite positives for Darvish when comparing his Japanese League statistics to Matsuzaka's.

Below are the average statistics for each pitchers career in Japan:

Total Avg	ERA	IP/G	K/G	BB/G	H/G
Matsuzaka	3.00	6.87	6.64	2.25	5.37
Darvish	2.15	7.59	7.49	1.99	5.48
L4YR Avg	ERA	IP/G	K/G	BB/G	H/G
Matsuzaka	2.54	7.06	7.3	1.79	5.73
Darvish	1.71	8.00	8.56	1.69	5.57
Final YR	ERA	IP/G	K/G	BB/G	H/G
Matsuzaka	2.13	7.44	8	1.36	5.52
Darvish	1.44	8.29	9.86	1.29	5.57

When comparing the numbers, Darvish's career in Japan was far more superior statistically to Matsuzaka's. Being able to go deeper in games, with a better K/BB ratio, and allowing less runs per start is not a coincidence, especially over a span of seven to eight years. Darvish is clearly the better talent.

Darvish, who is a year younger than Matsuzaka was when he came into the majors, accomplished something Daisuke never could in Japan (in fact, he did it five times). He was able to post a sub 2.00 ERA.

In Yu's last five seasons in Japan (2007-2011), he posted ERA's of 1.82, 1.88, 1.73, 1.78, and 1.44, respectively. Matsuzaka's lowest ever ERA was 2.13, his final season before going to Boston.

Five consecutive seasons with an ERA under 1.88 is insane and something that should not simply be chalked up to his opposition's mediocre talent.

Darvish may very well be another flop, lost in baseball translation, like a MiniDisc player in the world of technology (Wiki that link after you contact your local congressman).

Either way, baseball is the sport of the statistic and a quick glance at the numbers are in favor of Darvish being a relative success compared to Matsuazaka.


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Which CFB Conference Produces the Best First Round Runningbacks?

Through a series of blog post, I’m going to examine which college football conferences are producing the best first round talent and the most busts to the NFL. I will break it down by position of each player drafted in the first round between 2001 to 2011.

Here is my take on the Quarterbacks.

RUNNINGBACKS

Best: NON-AQ – When a NFL franchise selects a running back with a top ten pick, LaDanain Tomlinson’s hall of fame career is exactly what they envision. Appropriately decorated with numerous awards, broken records, and Pro Bowl appearances, the only thing missing in his storied career is a Super Bowl ring. However, he is, by far, one of the best running backs in NFL history and the clear prize in the NON-AQ draft class in the 1^st Round.

Not far behind Tomlinson is three time Pro Bowler Chris Johnson. Johnson joined the ranks of some of the NFL’s all-time greats in O.J. Simpson, Eric Dickerson, Barry Sanders, Terrell Davis, and Jamal Lewis by rushing for over 2,000 yards in the 2009 season. By his standards, CJ2K is coming off a disappointing 2011 campaign, only rushing for 1,047 yards and 4 touchdowns, after becoming the highest paid RB this offseason.  While questions arise whether or not the Titans should part ways with Johnson this off season, there is no doubt, at 26 he already has impressive accomplishments majority of RB’s will never sniff their entire career.

Complete Draft Class: Ryan Mathews (2010), Chris Johnson (2008), DeAngelo Williams (2006), LaDanian Tomlinson (2001)

Worst: ACC – Ten years, one draft pick, and 844 rushing yards later, it’s safe to say the ACC has been the worst at producing quality first round talent. CJ Spiller has been unable to translate his electrifying talent he displayed at Clemson to the NFl and has been labeled as a potential bust going into his 3^rd year. Spiller will be 25 years old, so he still has plenty of time to turn things around.

Boston College, Miami, and Virginia Tech did not join the conference in full until 2005. Had they been in the ACC the entire past decade, the award for worst running back class would’ve gone to the Big East. H

Complete Draft Class: CJ Spiller (2009)

Best Overall Pick: NON-AQ – LaDanian Tomlinson, 5^th Overall, 2001 – (See Above)

Worst Overall Pick: Big East – William Green, 16^th Overall, 2004 – It’s not that Green didn’t have the chops to make it in the NFL from a talent stand point, but that he couldn’t get out of his own way to let himself shine. Green had numerous failed drugs test in college and the NFL, as well as an arrest for drunk driving and possession of marijuana before, eventually, finding himself out of the league.

Other Draft Classes:

Big East: Donald Brown (2009), Kevin Jones (2004), Willis McGahee (2003), Williams Green (2002)

Big 10: Beanie Wells (2009), Rashard Mendenhall (2008), Laurence Maroney (2006), Chris Perry (2004), Larry Johnson (2003), TJ Duckett (2002), Michael Bennett (2001)

Big 12: Adrian Peterson (2007), Cedric Benson (2005)

Pac 10: Jahvid Best (2010), Jonathan Stewart (2008), Marshawn Lynch (2007), Reggie Bush (2006), Steven Jackson (2004)

SEC: Mark Ingram (2011), Knowshon Moreno (2009), Darren McFadden (2008), Felix Jones (2008), Jospeh Addai (2006), Ronnie Brown (2005), Cadillac Williams (2005), Deuce McAllister (2001)

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Which CFB Conference Produces the Best First Round Quarterbacks?

The NFL draft is made up of players from all corners of the college football spectrum. Some come from power house schools. Some come from FCS schools. Some are decorated Heisman trophy winners, while others are just hoping to get discovered. The grading and acquisition of talent knows no limits to NFL scouts and general managers.

Being drafted in the first round indicates a player has a superior level of football talent that is coveted by a team. The draft pick is expected to be a franchise cornerstone and high caliber player, which is emphasized by the generous sum of money awarded to first round draftees. Some first rounders will flourish beyond expectations, while others will fail to meet them. Regardless, the top 32 picks are made up of the best talent from all college football walks of life.

Through a series of blog post, I’m going to examine which college football conferences are producing the best first round talent and the most busts to the NFL. I will break it down by position of each player drafted in the first round between 2001 to 2011.

QUARTERBACKS

Best: SEC – The Southeastern Conference has delivered the most 1^st round quarterbacks over the past decade ranging from a Super Bowl champion to, perhaps, the biggest bust in draft history. 

At the moment, Eli Manning is the most accomplished SEC quarterback with a Super Bowl ring, Super Bowl MVP, and two Pro Bowl selections. However, this season, Matthew Stafford has closed the gap on the NFL’s elite quarterbacks after passing for over 5,000 yards, 41 touchdowns, and leading the Lions back into the playoffs for the first time since the last millennium (1999).Stafford was widely considered a Pro Bowl snub for the 2011 season.

In the 2011 draft, the SEC delivered Cam Newton to the NFL and the rookie quarterback did not disappoint. After being selected #1 overall by the Panthers, Newton went on to shatter numerous NFL records including most passing yards by a rookie (only rookie in history over 4,000 yards), most touchdowns by a rookie (21 pass, 14 rush), and most passing yards in a single game by a rookie (432). With the Panthers finishing 6-10, a four game improvement from 2010, it seems they have one of the NFL's brightest young stars to lead them into the future.

While Newton’s career seems to have a promising future from a statistical standpoint, Tim Tebow’s future promise is measured by an owner’s favorite metric – wins. 

Midway through the season, Tebow took his turn at quarterback for the 1-4 Broncos and guided them to an 8-8 record, playoff berth, and then a playoff victory! While he still lacks the passing prominence of most NFL quarterbacks, Tebow has shown an uncanny ability to lead his team to victory in the 4^th quarter. Tebow’s

The success and future promise of these SEC quarterbacks has been more than enough to outweigh (by a couple of pounds) the failure of world renown NFL draft bust,  Mr. Sizzurp Sippin’ himself, JaMarcus Russell as well as the less successful careers of others selected in the first round.

Complete Draft Class: Cam Newton (2011), Tim Tebow (2010), Matthew Stafford (2009), JaMarcus Russell (2007), Jay Cutler (2006), Jason Campbell (2005), Eli Manning (2004), Rex Grossman (2003)

Worst: Big 10 – The Big 10 football conference has not had a quarterback selected in the 1^st Round of the draft since Kerry Collins was selected 5^th overall in 1995 by the upstart Carolina Panthers. In that span, every football conference, except the Sun Belt, had a quarterback selected in the 1^st round, including a FCS school (Delaware).

The lack of interest is a little mind boggling when you consider most Big 10 schools have run oriented, pro-style offenses – something the NFL scouts and general managers usually cherish. When Tulane’s football program has had more quarterbacks (2) drafted in the first round the past decade than the entire conference, it easily makes the Big 10 the worst in the first round.

It’s no wonder Gunner Kiel, the top QB recruit in 2012, switched his commitment from the Big 10 (Indiana) to the SEC (LSU).

Complete Draft Class: None

Best Overall Pick: Pac 10 – Aaron Rodgers, 24^th Overall, 2005: Rodgers has easily proven to be the best quarterback taken in the 1^st round over the past ten years. After leading the Packers to a victory in Super Bowl XLV and following it up with a 15-1 regular season in 2011, the Rodgers succession plan may become a new trend across the NFL. A trend that is making Packers GM, Ted Thompson, seem more and more like a genius every day.

Worst Overall Pick: SEC – JaMarcus Russell, 1^st Overall, 2007: Russell was able to entice scouts with his raw athletic ability, which including throwing a football 60+ yards from his knees. His superman strength throwing a football turned out to be about as useful the NFL game as long drive competitors are to the PGA. Scouts seemed to forget that if you throw a pass from your knees in a game you are down and lose yardage on the play. If Russell ever finds the time to maintain his tools, which is doubtful, perhaps one day in the future he can find a niche as a Hail Mary specialist.

Other Draft Classes:

ACC: Christian Ponder (2011), Matt Ryan (2008), Philip Rivers (2004)

Big East: Michael Vick (2001)

Big12: Blaine Gabbert (2011), Sam Bradford (2010), Josh Freeman (2009), Vince Young (2006)

Pac 10: Jake Locker (2011), Mark Sanchez (2009), Matt Leinart (2006), Aaron Rodgers (2005), Carson Palmer (2003), Kyle Boller (2003), Joey Harrington (2002)

NON-AQ: Joe Flacco (2008), Brady Quinn (2007), Alex Smith (2005), Ben Roethlisberger (2004, JP Losman (2004), Byron Leftwich (2003), David Carr (2002), Patrick Ramsey (2002)

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