January 19, 2012

Coming from Japan: Yu v Daisuke

After 30 days of negotiating, it's official: Yu Darvish is a Texas Ranger.


You can put it in 3-inch headlines. The Rangers have put all their eggs into the Yu Darvish basket.

Even with all the excitement for Yu's arrival to DFW, skepticism still looms. The translation for Japanese pitchers to the major leagues can be best summed up by a native proverb:




Loose translation: Don't count your chickens before they've hatched.

In 2007, Boston fans rejoiced as the Red Sox shelled out $103 million to acquire a Japanese phenom in Daisuke Matsuzaka. Fans, analyst, and talking heads everywhere were convinced Matsuzaka was going to rule the majors in furious fashion. The hype was outrageous considering the guy had yet to throw a professional pitch on American soil.

As it turned out, those chickens never hatched and the pursuit of Matsuzaka only left egg on the face of Red Sox GM Theo Epstein.

Now it's Daniel's turn to sweat every scheduled start of his high dollar import, as he hopes the due diligence of his scouting department produces the expected returns. Fair or unfair, it's only natural that Matsuzaka's overall epic failure in the majors will draw comparisons and concerns about Yu Darvish.

While the comparisons aren't unfounded, it can be dangerous to lump groups of people together, especially with such a small sample size.

Seriously, not everyone in Texas rides a horse.

I can't sit here and say I've watched Yu pitch in anything more than YouTube highlights, so my "scouting" analysis comparing him to Matsuzaka would be laughable.

However, numbers don't lie and there are some definite positives for Darvish when comparing his Japanese League statistics to Matsuzaka's.

Below are the average statistics for each pitchers career in Japan:

Total Avg ERA IP/G K/G BB/G H/G
Matsuzaka 3.00 6.87 6.64 2.25 5.37
Darvish 2.15 7.59 7.49 1.99 5.48






L4YR Avg ERA IP/G K/G BB/G  H/G
Matsuzaka 2.54 7.06 7.3 1.79 5.73
Darvish 1.71 8.00 8.56 1.69 5.57






Final YR ERA IP/G K/G BB/G  H/G
Matsuzaka 2.13 7.44 8 1.36 5.52
Darvish 1.44 8.29 9.86 1.29 5.57


When comparing the numbers, Darvish's career in Japan was far more superior statistically to Matsuzaka's. Being able to go deeper in games, with a better K/BB ratio, and allowing less runs per start is not a coincidence, especially over a span of seven to eight years. Darvish is clearly the better talent.

Darvish, who is a year younger than Matsuzaka was when he came into the majors, accomplished something Daisuke never could in Japan (in fact, he did it five times). He was able to post a sub 2.00 ERA.

In Yu's last five seasons in Japan (2007-2011), he posted ERA's of 1.82, 1.88, 1.73, 1.78, and 1.44, respectively. Matsuzaka's lowest ever ERA was 2.13, his final season before going to Boston.

Five consecutive seasons with an ERA under 1.88 is insane and something that should not simply be chalked up to his opposition's mediocre talent.

Darvish may very well be another flop, lost in baseball translation, like a MiniDisc player in the world of technology (Wiki that link after you contact your local congressman).

Either way, baseball is the sport of the statistic and a quick glance at the numbers are in favor of Darvish being a relative success compared to Matsuazaka.


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