“It’s
Deja vu all over again.” -- Yogi Berra
It wasn’t his intention. Actually, most things Yogi Berra said were usually intended to have a different meaning. However, when Yogi Berra gave us this wonderful little nugget, he didn't intend to describe where the collective college football world was heading in the summer of 2012.
Realignment rumors are full throttle, television figures are common knowledge amongst college football fans, and speculation is running rampant in message board fashion. It feels like we’ve been here before.
In fact, less than a year ago we were here. We were listening to athletic directors and conference commissioners say a lot of things, some of which were true, but most of which were statements filled with half-truths.
As we enter the summer of 2012, conference meetings are in full effect and so are carefully worded statements regarding conference realignment.
Or, perhaps, a more appropriate way for these athletic directors and conference commissioners to describe their statements is in Berra's book titled, The Yogi Book: “I Really Didn’t Say Everything I Said.”
Let’s take a look at some of the key quotes from Big 12's athletic directors and commissioners being regurgitated in sports articles around the country regarding recent realignment rumors involving Florida State and Clemson joining their conference.
“Within that deal is a clause that will give any new expansion candidates the same money as the current members (estimated to be at least $20 million per year).” ? Reported by Dennis Dodd of CBSsports.com
Translation: New members will be given the same equity share of the pie as the current members.
Saying new conference members would receive “the same amount of money” is merely a clever politician-esque way to throw people off of the realignment scent without lying. It makes it seem as if adding a couple of top 15 caliber programs would have a negligible impact on an unsigned TV deal and therefore would not be something of interest to the conference at this point in time.
It’s hard to imagine a conference with traditional powers like Texas, Oklahoma, and Florida State as the headliners wouldn’t be worthy of a TV deal worth considerably more per year than a conference headlined by USC and really only USC. If you want, include Oregon since they are relevant.
Conveying that additions like Colorado and Utah are worth $21 mil/year and a new Big 12 with Florida State and Clemson will plateau in TV dollars and stay at an estimated $20 mil/year is something I’m not buying.
Florida State’s and Clemson’s national brand unquestionably eclipses that of Colorado and Utah. Combine that with a potential TV market three and a half times the size of Colorado and Utah, then ask yourself if a bump in TV money seems reasonable compared to the deal ESPN and Fox gave the Pac 12 a year ago?
A ghost channel that features “Fozzy’s Safari Spectacular” is worth $300 million because the Longhorn brand is attached to it. Notre Dame’s historical brand allows them to remain one the most coveted commodities in college football, resulting in huge television deals as an independent entity. Florida State is not Texas or Notre Dame, but their brand is definitely worth a raise for the Big 12 conference.
So, to those sources trying to convince everyone that in the new television money driven world of college football any additions to the Big 12 will be simply viewed as “team 11” and “team 12”…..
Child Please.
“We feel really well positioned at this time with 10 teams.” ? Iowa State AD Jamie Pollard
Translation: While we are extremely pleased with our current TV deal and that we are still in tact despite almost being torn apart a year ago, we now have a position of strength and we plan to do what’s best for our conference.
By now, we’ve all read “Conference Expansion for Dummies” and have become familiar with the process.
1. Deny ? We aren’t interested.
2. Deny ? We haven’t heard from those schools.
3. Deny ? No formal membership application has been submitted.
4. Accept ? It was too good of an opportunity to pass up.
When certain phrases like “at this time” are strategically inserted into statements, they leave the situation open ended for things to change in the future.
If the Big 12 were to add Florida State and Clemson, it will be echoed that “these are two great universities who inquired to join the Big 12 and we felt this was an opportunity to strengthen our conference we couldn't pass up, even though we were happy at ten teams,” or something similar along those lines.
If the Big 12 is content with their current set up, then why are they pining so hard for Notre Dame? I understand the value of adding Notre Dame, but the Big 12 reminds me of the nerdy gangly kid, Squints, from the movie “The Sandlot” drooling all over the sun kissed lifeguard, Wendy Peffercorn, as she sits up on a pedestal in her lifeguard stand.
But, there hasn’t been any talk to expansion in the Big 12. Well, at least not about conference affiliated teams because the Big 12 would get sued all the way back to the Southwest Conference for tampering.
“Are we happy and satisfied at 10? Yes,” Chuck Neinas stated at the Big 12’s annual spring meetings. “We have not reached out to Florida State nor have we been contacted by Florida State.”
As of right now, the Big 12 company line will remain at step number two for at least another month minimum.
“We must focus on building unity with our two new conference members.” ? Big 12 interim commissioner Chuck Neinas
Translation: The ink isn’t dry on TCU and West Virginia as official Big 12 members until July 1st, 2012. We can't legally add more members before we officially welcome our new members to the conference.
It’s hard to believe the Big 12 would wait to make a power play that could stabilize the conference for decades to come, especially considering this a conference that lost four teams and was almost extinct less than a year ago.
Florida State combined with Clemson or Miami or Georgia Tech or Virginia Tech is a move that would likely shift the Big 12 as one of the top two conferences in college football. This is a conference filled with teams who were considered to be Big East bound not too long ago and I can’t imagine they are content with sitting idle when they can ensure their seat at the table for years to come.
Building unity is a great thing for a conference’s marriage in the long run, but this is the new age of college football where conferences expand and contrast in the blink of an eye. There are only so many historical powerhouse commodities like Florida State available for the taking.
My recommendation would be to try speed dating and move on.
“I don’t think anybody gets left behind.” ? Oklahoma State President Burns Hargis
Translation: Even if there are four power conferences, there can be more than one Boise State in college football.
If the new champions bowl coalition between the Big 12 and the SEC is not a symbol of a power shift to four major conferences, then this is a very odd statement to make.
Chuck Neinas later went on to make a statement, specifically referring to the ACC.
“We need them,” Neinas said. “Absolutely. We’ve talked about with John Swofford ? the other four conferences ? to help them find a good bowl for his champion’s team. We’re not trying to exclude them. We’re trying to include them.”
The more I think about the purpose of these statements, the more they seem like a preemptive public relations maneuver before harm is inflicted upon the ACC. If everything is going to remain the same, then why is the ACC being portrayed as a damaged and weak conference?
Why is helping a rival conference suddenly such a concern for the newly strengthened Big 12? Is the ACC about to be decimated, left out, and given a consolation prize from the newly rich conference making bank at their expense?
The Big 12 is about to cash in with their launch of Facebook, while the ACC on track to get “Winklevossed”.
It’s possible these statements are straight forward, honest responses to tough questions. It’s also possible they are laced with words that will protect future planned actions while the involved school's and conference's lawyers continue their due diligence on the legal side of things.
Regardless, realignment is going to be prevalent in news cycles until the college football season kicks off in late August and, by then, we may be looking at a whole new landscape in college football.
Or as Yogi would describe it, “the future ain’t what it used to be” in college football.
It wasn’t his intention. Actually, most things Yogi Berra said were usually intended to have a different meaning. However, when Yogi Berra gave us this wonderful little nugget, he didn't intend to describe where the collective college football world was heading in the summer of 2012.
Realignment rumors are full throttle, television figures are common knowledge amongst college football fans, and speculation is running rampant in message board fashion. It feels like we’ve been here before.
In fact, less than a year ago we were here. We were listening to athletic directors and conference commissioners say a lot of things, some of which were true, but most of which were statements filled with half-truths.
As we enter the summer of 2012, conference meetings are in full effect and so are carefully worded statements regarding conference realignment.
Or, perhaps, a more appropriate way for these athletic directors and conference commissioners to describe their statements is in Berra's book titled, The Yogi Book: “I Really Didn’t Say Everything I Said.”
Let’s take a look at some of the key quotes from Big 12's athletic directors and commissioners being regurgitated in sports articles around the country regarding recent realignment rumors involving Florida State and Clemson joining their conference.
“Within that deal is a clause that will give any new expansion candidates the same money as the current members (estimated to be at least $20 million per year).” ? Reported by Dennis Dodd of CBSsports.com
Translation: New members will be given the same equity share of the pie as the current members.
Saying new conference members would receive “the same amount of money” is merely a clever politician-esque way to throw people off of the realignment scent without lying. It makes it seem as if adding a couple of top 15 caliber programs would have a negligible impact on an unsigned TV deal and therefore would not be something of interest to the conference at this point in time.
It’s hard to imagine a conference with traditional powers like Texas, Oklahoma, and Florida State as the headliners wouldn’t be worthy of a TV deal worth considerably more per year than a conference headlined by USC and really only USC. If you want, include Oregon since they are relevant.
Conveying that additions like Colorado and Utah are worth $21 mil/year and a new Big 12 with Florida State and Clemson will plateau in TV dollars and stay at an estimated $20 mil/year is something I’m not buying.
Florida State’s and Clemson’s national brand unquestionably eclipses that of Colorado and Utah. Combine that with a potential TV market three and a half times the size of Colorado and Utah, then ask yourself if a bump in TV money seems reasonable compared to the deal ESPN and Fox gave the Pac 12 a year ago?
A ghost channel that features “Fozzy’s Safari Spectacular” is worth $300 million because the Longhorn brand is attached to it. Notre Dame’s historical brand allows them to remain one the most coveted commodities in college football, resulting in huge television deals as an independent entity. Florida State is not Texas or Notre Dame, but their brand is definitely worth a raise for the Big 12 conference.
So, to those sources trying to convince everyone that in the new television money driven world of college football any additions to the Big 12 will be simply viewed as “team 11” and “team 12”…..
Child Please.
“We feel really well positioned at this time with 10 teams.” ? Iowa State AD Jamie Pollard
Translation: While we are extremely pleased with our current TV deal and that we are still in tact despite almost being torn apart a year ago, we now have a position of strength and we plan to do what’s best for our conference.
By now, we’ve all read “Conference Expansion for Dummies” and have become familiar with the process.
1. Deny ? We aren’t interested.
2. Deny ? We haven’t heard from those schools.
3. Deny ? No formal membership application has been submitted.
4. Accept ? It was too good of an opportunity to pass up.
When certain phrases like “at this time” are strategically inserted into statements, they leave the situation open ended for things to change in the future.
If the Big 12 were to add Florida State and Clemson, it will be echoed that “these are two great universities who inquired to join the Big 12 and we felt this was an opportunity to strengthen our conference we couldn't pass up, even though we were happy at ten teams,” or something similar along those lines.
If the Big 12 is content with their current set up, then why are they pining so hard for Notre Dame? I understand the value of adding Notre Dame, but the Big 12 reminds me of the nerdy gangly kid, Squints, from the movie “The Sandlot” drooling all over the sun kissed lifeguard, Wendy Peffercorn, as she sits up on a pedestal in her lifeguard stand.
But, there hasn’t been any talk to expansion in the Big 12. Well, at least not about conference affiliated teams because the Big 12 would get sued all the way back to the Southwest Conference for tampering.
“Are we happy and satisfied at 10? Yes,” Chuck Neinas stated at the Big 12’s annual spring meetings. “We have not reached out to Florida State nor have we been contacted by Florida State.”
As of right now, the Big 12 company line will remain at step number two for at least another month minimum.
“We must focus on building unity with our two new conference members.” ? Big 12 interim commissioner Chuck Neinas
Translation: The ink isn’t dry on TCU and West Virginia as official Big 12 members until July 1st, 2012. We can't legally add more members before we officially welcome our new members to the conference.
It’s hard to believe the Big 12 would wait to make a power play that could stabilize the conference for decades to come, especially considering this a conference that lost four teams and was almost extinct less than a year ago.
Florida State combined with Clemson or Miami or Georgia Tech or Virginia Tech is a move that would likely shift the Big 12 as one of the top two conferences in college football. This is a conference filled with teams who were considered to be Big East bound not too long ago and I can’t imagine they are content with sitting idle when they can ensure their seat at the table for years to come.
Building unity is a great thing for a conference’s marriage in the long run, but this is the new age of college football where conferences expand and contrast in the blink of an eye. There are only so many historical powerhouse commodities like Florida State available for the taking.
My recommendation would be to try speed dating and move on.
“I don’t think anybody gets left behind.” ? Oklahoma State President Burns Hargis
Translation: Even if there are four power conferences, there can be more than one Boise State in college football.
If the new champions bowl coalition between the Big 12 and the SEC is not a symbol of a power shift to four major conferences, then this is a very odd statement to make.
Chuck Neinas later went on to make a statement, specifically referring to the ACC.
“We need them,” Neinas said. “Absolutely. We’ve talked about with John Swofford ? the other four conferences ? to help them find a good bowl for his champion’s team. We’re not trying to exclude them. We’re trying to include them.”
The more I think about the purpose of these statements, the more they seem like a preemptive public relations maneuver before harm is inflicted upon the ACC. If everything is going to remain the same, then why is the ACC being portrayed as a damaged and weak conference?
Why is helping a rival conference suddenly such a concern for the newly strengthened Big 12? Is the ACC about to be decimated, left out, and given a consolation prize from the newly rich conference making bank at their expense?
The Big 12 is about to cash in with their launch of Facebook, while the ACC on track to get “Winklevossed”.
It’s possible these statements are straight forward, honest responses to tough questions. It’s also possible they are laced with words that will protect future planned actions while the involved school's and conference's lawyers continue their due diligence on the legal side of things.
Regardless, realignment is going to be prevalent in news cycles until the college football season kicks off in late August and, by then, we may be looking at a whole new landscape in college football.
Or as Yogi would describe it, “the future ain’t what it used to be” in college football.
Follow me on Twitter: @DSportsGuide
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