The SEC conference will try to capture its sixth consecutive national championship in 2011 and with eight teams ranked in the preseason AP Poll, they have a pretty damn good chance of making it happen.
Once again, this conference is loaded with talent and should be difficult to navigate through unscathed. Last year, Auburn and South Carolina met in the SEC championship game. Auburn was rated in the preseason as 4th in the West division, while South Carolina was 3rd in the East.
If you can find it, there is always great value, betting wise, in the SEC.
***If you place a wager, please wager responsibly. Do NOT place a wager that is outside your financial means. If you can’t afford to lose that amount, then it is outside your means. There have never been and never will be a LOCK on any particular game. Anything can happen inside the lines on any given day, like a 36 point underdog in Stanford beating USC on the road in 2007.
Now that you plan to wager responsibly, let’s take a look at some Vegas odds on the SEC Conference.
East
Projected Winner- South Carolina (+200): The Gamecocks return the division’s most proven and talented offense, which isn’t actually saying much comparatively speaking. If they can get consistent play out of QB Stephen Garcia, then this offense should be able to maximize the talents of Marcus Lattimore and Alshon Jeffery. South Carolina, potentially, could have one of the best defensive lines in the nation. The unit has a great blend of experienced returning upperclassmen and highly touted recruits coming in. They will need their secondary to improve from last season to truly be a dominate unit.
They have a great schedule in the fact that they do not have to play Alabama or LSU, but they do have games at Mississippi State and Arkansas from the West. Also, they do travel to Georgia, which is a disadvantage, but the Bulldogs will be coming off a tough game against Boise State, which should help. I think South Carolina matches up extremely well with Georgia and should be able to go into Athens and get a win. Overall, it’s not the easiest schedule, but it is one a team with South Carolina's talent can maneuver through.
The Gamecocks are the most talented and experienced team in the East division and I’m not sure anyone can argue that. They have some tough road games, but this team is fully capable of going into hostile environments and leaving with wins. Given the various situations with the other schools in the East, I think this team is a fairly safe bet for the division.
Why Not
Georgia (+180): The Bulldog’s schedule is so ridiculously easy that it is almost impossible to pass on them. Not only do they get South Carolina at home and Florida at a neutral site, but they avoid Alabama, LSU, and Arkansas. The schedule sets up beautifully! However, their offense is a huge question mark outside of Aaron Murray and they have little experience at the skill positions. They should improve defensively, but the front seven doesn’t have any type of proven pass rush or run stuffing ability to speak of. This team doesn’t match up well with Boise State or South Carolina and if they start 0-2, the rest of the season could be very uncomfortable.
Florida (+190): Another coaching overhaul this offseason for the Gators could cause them to struggle early in the season. Depth and experience are two things this football team lacks in numerous areas. Unlike South Carolina and Georgia, the Gators must play Alabama and @LSU. Add the fact they must travel to South Carolina and a bet on the Gators seems very unappealing at such low odds.
Tennessee (+900): This is an extremely young, but talented, team that has upset potential in them this season. Their schedule features road games at Florida, Alabama, and Arkansas, and visits from LSU, Georgia, and South Carolina. It’s a very tough schedule for a team that is not quite there yet, so I’ll have to pass on the Volunteers.
Kentucky (+3300): I don’t think they will win the division, but this team shouldn’t be taken too lightly. They have a very interesting schedule and if there was a value wager in this division, it would be this team. However, it is way too much of a dreamer’s bet to actually put money on the Wildcats.
Vanderbilt (+7500): I’m almost starting to believe Vanderbilt is the highest paid sacrificial lamb in all of college football and the SEC has been hoodwinking us this whole time making us believe they are an actual member of the SEC.
West
Projected Winner- Alabama (-140): Usually, I like to begin with each team’s offense in these previews, but Alabama’s defense is too good not to come first. Their linebackers and secondary are stacked with NFL talent and if their defensive line can get any type of production remotely similar to that of Marcell Dareus, it might be impossible to score on them. The defense is going to be that good. Offensively, they should be solid in the running game with four starters returning on the line and Heisman candidate, Trent Richardson, in the backfield. If they can get effective passing and game management from their new quarterback, this team will be hard to stop.
Schedule wise, they get their two toughest opponents (LSU and Arkansas) in T-Town, which gives them a huge advantage in any tie breaker scenario. They have manageable road games at Florida, Mississippi State and Auburn, so if they can avoid too many slip ups, things should shape up nicely for the Crimson Tide.
Alabama has an extremely talented team and if they can get adequate play from the quarterback position, winning the SEC will be an afterthought by the time the season ends. Betting wise, I don’t find the value in Alabama too intriguing to put any type of sizeable bet on them. They are breaking in a new quarterback in the toughest conference in the nation, which is not easy to do. Nick Saban’s track record helps ease my concerns, so I think a small bet might be worth it in the end.
Value Wager- Mississippi State (+1300): The Bulldog’s are entering their third season under Dan Mullen and the expectations have never been so high at Mississippi State. Quarterback Chris Relf will need to continue to improve as a passer for this team to take the next step. Offensively, they have RB Vick Ballard back to lean on behind an offensive line that returns three starters, though, they will miss T Derrick Sherrod, who departed for the NFL. The Bulldogs should have one of the best secondaries in the SEC and be stingy in the defensive line. The real concern for the defense is continuing in the right direction without last years defensive coordinator, Manny Diaz.
The Bulldogs have an appeasing schedule, which makes them attractive as a dark horse team. They get Alabama, South Carolina, and LSU at home – games they would have a tougher time winning on the road. They still must travel to Auburn and Georgia, who they match up well against. A game on the road against Arkansas in Fayetteville could be a tough one to steal for the win column. Overall, it’s a huge advantage to get the divisional juggernauts at home, where the Bulldogs play tough. Last season they almost beat national champs Auburn and lost out to Arkansas in double overtime, both at home.
All of the components needed by any dark horse to make a run are present for Mississippi State. They’re a team coming off one of the best seasons in school history and return a plethora of upperclassmen starters, including the starting senior quarterback. They are entering their third season under one of the hottest coaches in college football. Their schedule breaks nicely for them where their hardest competition is at home. What else could a dark horse possibly ask for? I expect this team to compete every week in the SEC and given all their dark horse qualities, I will be placing a little bet on them to steal the division.
Why Not
LSU (+275): Jordan Jefferson and Russell Shepard are both facing indefinite suspensions at the moment and the offense really doesn't have an identity. They also travel to Alabama and Mississippi State (Thursday night games are tough). Defensively, they lost their best player makers from 2010 to the NLF draft, which included the electrifying return ability of Patrick Peterson. They will be good, but not worth my money at these odds.
Arkansas (+915): If it wasn’t for scheduled road games at Alabama and LSU, this would have to be the dark horse pick. Arkansas should be highly competitive this season and if you felt like you wanted this to be your dark horse, I couldn’t blame you.
Auburn (+1800): They return only seven starters from their 2010 national championship team. Auburn is a legit program, but their scheduled road games at South Carolina, Arkansas, LSU, and Georgia are brutal and may be too much to overcome to get the wins they need.
Mississippi (+3300): This team should be improved and become bowl eligible this season, but I don’t think they will have the squad to pull it off. Although, you never know with Houston Nutt and they do have Georgia, Alabama, Arkansas, and LSU at home. I would keep an eye on them, just in case.
SEC Champion
Alabama (+205):
Florida (+460):
Georgia (+475):
LSU (+475):
South Carolina (+625):
Arkansas (+1750):
Mississippi State (+2200):
Tennessee (+2200):
Auburn (+3700):
Kentucky (+8500):
Mississippi (+8500):
Vanderbilt (+18500):
I expect to see the SEC championship game feature Alabama and South Carolina, with the state of Alabama winning this thing again.
Projected Winner- Alabama (+205)
Value Team- Mississippi State (+2200)
Comments and opinions are always encouraged.
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