With Texas A&M embarking on a journey to the SEC to find themselves, the Big 12 scurries to find a solid replacement to strengthen the conference. The official public position of the remaining nine members in the fragmented conference is that the Big 12 is an entity worth saving. However, if you take a hard look between the lines, it feels Texas is the only school that truly has those feelings.
And why shouldn’t they? The Longhorns can feel their omnipotent reign over the Big 12 conference slowly slipping out of the grasp in which they control it. Their conference “partners”, who they have built a burnt orange wall of dependence around, have found cracks in Big 12 landscape and are strategically positioning themselves to escape in the middle of the night.
Texas knows if the Big 12 can move swiftly and bring in quality replacements for their recently departed programs, then public pressure will force Oklahoma to stay. If Oklahoma stays, that means Oklahoma State and Texas Tech will remain. Missouri doesn’t look like they are going anywhere either as the SEC hasn’t called yet and the Big 10 isn’t calling them back. In this case, Texas regains their stranglehold on the Big 12, and their pockets remain fat from conference and ESPN dollars.
However, if any of those four teams leave (OU, OKST, TTU, Mizz), then this conference will fall faster than a man on stilts fighting a ninja.
It’s time for Larry Scott to become that ninja.
For the sake of the Pac 12, Larry Scott better elicit his inner Chuck Norris and deliver one, swift, roundhouse kick to the Big 12.
The SEC and Big 10 have the luxury to be more methodical about conference expansion. They have numerous geographical options around them with quality teams from the Big East, ACC, and Big 12 conferences. Geographically, he Pac 12 has the Big 12, Mountain West, and the WAC.
Larry Scott is on record saying he believes 16 team super conferences are the future in college football, so why not continue expanding now? If the Big 12 consolidates back into a sturdy and steady commodity, what other options are there for expansion in the future- Air Force, Boise State, BYU, Hawaii, Nevada? Poaching Big East or ACC teams would be a nightmare on the athletic budget for both parties and it would never work out.
The fact is, the Pac 12 has very few illustrious commodities to choose from outside of the Big 12. Before Texas gets the Big 12 back on solid ground, Scott must attack it. How though?
Invite Texas Tech to the party.
They are the perfect card to pull to make the Big 12 house of cards fall down. Texas Tech’s athletic director, Kirby Hocutt, recently stated “Our focus will continue to be on what’s best for Texas Tech University and what’s best for Texas Tech University is continuing to be a proud member of the Big 12 Conference and a part of the Big 12 Conference in the future.” Look, Texas Tech is a great university, but Hocutt and Texas Tech know they don’t have any other options, which is why they must pledge their allegiance to the Big 12. Hocutt’s statement clearly leaves Texas Tech’s commitment to the Big 12 in flux, since he also states he will do what’s best for Texas Tech.
If a stable and equal revenue sharing conference, like the Pac 12, were to extend an invite to Tech, it’s almost certain they would make the transition as it would be a overall option for the university. Unlike Joe Castiglione at Oklahoma, it’s pretty certain that Hocutt and company would receive little, if any, public backlash in making this decision. They are a great fit geographically out of West Texas and would bring in a piece of the Texas market for the Pac 12- which is important and I’ll explain why in a minute.
If Texas Tech leaves, the Big 12 is down to eight members, which severely cripples the conference. Finding two logical fits comparable to the quality of Texas A&M and Texas Tech would be almost impossible. Remember, the conference needs 10 teams or their TV deal is void and patching it up with programs like SMU and Houston would be embarrassing for the remaining members (no offense to those schools).
Now, with Big 12 landscape looking extremely unstable, Oklahoma will have no choice bolt for the Pac 12. There are rumblings that this is what the Sooners have wanted all along, but huge ties to the importance of their rivalry with Texas have prevented them from making the leap. Castiglione can publicly position Oklahoma’s decision to join the Pac 12 as one out of absolute necessity for Sooner athletics. This will help prevent any detrimental side effects to a very important tradition (and moneymaker) in the Red River Rivalry with Texas.
Now that Oklahoma has accepted their invite, Oklahoma State will also be invited and any political drama avoided. Even though Oklahoma State won’t build the Pac 12 brand the same way Oklahoma will, they are a first class athletic program backed by a lot of booster dollars that will keep the product on the field at a high level.
Now that Texas Tech, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State are in the Pac 12, the Big 12 is officially dead. Chuck Norris is still undefeated.
Now the Pac 12 is in a position of power to negotiate with Texas, who has stated emphatically they do not want to be an independent entity. The main issue that blocked realignment last summer was Larry Scott’s stance on the Longhorn Network. Scott thought didn’t think it would be beneficial for his vision of a Pac 12 network and unfair to other members of the conference. Texas and the Pac 12 couldn’t come to an agreement.
It’s understandable why this was non-negotiable for Texas last summer. In the Big 12, they are allowed their network and it’s $300 million dollars on top of the money they get from the Big 12 conference deals. Obviously, this is why the Longhorns are fighting so hard to keep the Big 12 alive.
Only in Austin, TX is there, literally, such thing as a cash cow (Hi Bevo).
Last summer, the Big 12 was still standing, so it didn’t make financial sense to drop their network opportunity and join the Pac 12. In this scenario, the Big 12 has fallen, so now would Texas be more agreeable to terms that would allow them to join the Pac 12? I can think of $300 million reasons why they won’t.
Even though, ideally, the Pac 12 and Texas want each other, I’m not sure these two could ever agree on a wedding date. If, ever, there was a scenario where the Pac 12 could get Texas to compromise, this is it.
So, let’s say Texas doesn’t join the Pac 12 and the conference is still looking for one more member, who is it? Naturally you would think Missouri, but a different school comes to mind for me.
The TCU Horned Frogs.
TCU has recently parlayed its success in the Mountain West into an invite from the Big East. The quality of their football program, on and off the field, is growing at a rapid pace. TCU would give the Pac 12 a double dip into the Texas market- a move that Sports Business Expert, Kristi Dosh agrees with in her super conference column. Recently, Dan Wetzel of Yahoo! Sports has also presented the “TCU Double Dip Theory” in one of his columns, saying the SEC should invite the Horned Frogs to help double down in their newly expanded Texas TV market. TCU’s Texas ties should be far more appealing to the Pac 12, compared to Missouri.
By sending the first invite to Texas Tech, the Pac 12 leaves their options open in the Texas market. If they were to take Texas, they are most likely going to have to take Texas Tech anyways. If they can't get Texas, then they leave their options open to grab the next best option in the Texas market, TCU.
Now with Texas Tech and TCU, the new Pac 16 has the best available pipelines into Texas.
By acting brash, Larry Scott could put his conference in position to add four perennial Top 25 caliber football programs and a massive amount of TV sets.
If he sits back while Texas and Dan Beebe work feverishly to save the Big 12 conference, he could be stuck with low quality, filler program from the Mountain West and the WAC as his only option for realignment. Adding teams like Air Force, Boise State, BYU, Hawaii, and Nevada, would certainly make the Pac 16 conference the “Big East” of the super conferences, which wouldn’t be all that “super” for them.
For the sake of the Pac 12's future, Scott needs to be aggressive with his actions.
Somewhere in Lubbock, a secretary answers the phone….
“Excuse me, Mr. Hocutt. I have Chuck Norris on line one.”
“Excuse me, Mr. Hocutt. I have Chuck Norris on line one.”
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