The way things have gone for the Big 12 conference the past two off seasons, this could very well be the last year of it's existence. Right now, as you are reading this, another team just left the Big 12.
This will be the first season the Big 12 show cases their 10 team conference and forgoes a championship game at the end of the season. Instead, it will be round robin conference play with the best record getting crowned as the champions.
This year the Big 12 features four teams ranked in the AP Poll: Oklahoma (#1), Texas A&M (#8), Oklahoma State (#9), and Missouri (#21). It’s pretty crazy to think the only conference with three teams ranked in the top ten is teetering among the land of the dinosaurs- extinction.
Regardless of all the off the field drama between school presidents, there is actually some great football to be played and some intriguing value out there in various teams.
***If you place a wager, please wager responsibly. Do NOT place a wager that is outside your financial means. If you can’t afford to lose that amount, then it is outside your means. There have never been and never will be a LOCK on any particular game. Anything can happen inside the lines on any given day, like a 36 point underdog in Stanford beating USC on the road in 2007.
Now that you plan to wager responsibly, let’s take a look at some Vegas odds on the Big 12 Conference.
Big 12 Champion
Projected Winner- Oklahoma (-195): Oklahoma returns one of the nation’s most prolific passing offenses, led by QB Landry Jones. Jones has some serious weapons at his disposal at WR, in Ryan Broyles and the underrated Kenny Stills. It doesn’t hurt that Oklahoma has four offensive linemen returning that should be among the conference’s best groups at the position. As long as the Sooners can replace DeMarco Murray with the same level of production (which they should have no problem doing), their offense will be one of the most dynamic in the nation.
Defensively, Oklahoma does have some question marks in their front seven. Their defensive line needs their stud recruits to step up and their linebackers must hold it down until Travis Lewis returns from injury. Their secondary is a very solidified unit now that Jamell Fleming cleared academically for the 2011 season. They are going to need to improve in the front seven to be dominate defense this season.
Oklahoma gets Missouri, Texas Tech, and Texas A&M at home which is huge for the Sooners who are 72-2 at home under Bob Stoops. That is a significant advantage for Oklahoma and the thought of any losses in Norman diminish considering that record. Road games at Kansas, Kansas State, and Baylor should all be easy wins for the Sooners. Their road game in Stillwater might be the one that gets tricky. Even though the Sooners have won the past eight meetings, including their last four at Oklahoma State, things could get a little tricky for Oklahoma in Stillwater. I haven't even mentioned their game against Texas yet, which shows just how much of an after thought they are this season in the Big 12.
There is a good chance Oklahoma will be undefeated in Big 12 play heading into the Bedlam showdown against Oklahoma State. There is a good chance that the OU money line for that game could be similar to the (-195) line posted for Oklahoma to win the Big 12. However, given Oklahoma State’s schedule (@A&M, @TTU, @Mizzou, @Texas), there is a good chance they will not be in a position where that game decides the conference. A bet on Oklahoma will probably be a winner and even though I hate laying that type of juice, I might have to throw something the Sooners way.
Value Wager- Texas A&M (+700): In the Big 12 this season, there are limited actual value wagers regarding surprise teams taking the conference. This year, it’s more about deciding which team can defeat Oklahoma and has the best schedule in conference play.
Texas A&M should be a great team this season. They return their savior at QB, Ryan Tannehill, a plethora of weapons at the skill positions, and four starters on the offensive line. Eight starters return on a defense that will be in their 3rd year under Tim DeRuyter, who has really transformed the Aggie’s defense since his arrival. Things are looking good on both sides of the ball for the Aggies and they have the type of team balance you need to challenge Oklahoma.
Other than the road game in Norman (reminder: OU is 72-2 at home under Stoops), the schedule sets up nicely for the Aggies. They get Oklahoma State, Missouri, and Texas at Kyle field; one of the toughest places to play in college football. They do have a tricky game against Texas Tech in Lubbock that comes after a back to back with Oklahoma State and Arkansas, but it’s definitely winnable. If they can take care of business at home and somehow hand Stoops his third loss in Norman, things could be looking good for the Aggie's last hoorah.
If Texas A&M is the team everyone is expecting them to be, their game in Norman could literally end up being the deciding factor in who wins the Big 12. If that happens to be the case, then there is a huge value on them at (+700) for that one game, which equates to them being around 17-20 point under dogs (very doubtful). This play has great value in this scenario, however given Stoop’s record in Norman, I can’t see a good reason to drop a big wager on it. A small one will do.
Why Not
Texas (+1000): Six new assistant coaches is a lot of overhaul and can be a difficult transition in year one. I’m not sure Texas' offense will be in the top half of the Big 12 as OU, OKST, TTU, A&M, Mizzou, and Baylor are all better. Even if they are vastly improved from the putrid 5-7 team we saw last year, their games @Mizzou, @A&M, and against OU are going to be tough to navigate to be a contender in the conference.
Oklahoma State (+1100): I’m sure you already know this, but this offense is going to be electrifying. IF their Big 12 schedule didn’t consist of road games at A&M, Texas, Missouri, and Texas Tech, I probably would’ve chosen them as my “Value Team.” They just don’t have the defense to go on the road like that and not endure at least two losses.
Missouri (+1700): This was ALMOST my “Value Team.” They are going to be very good in the trenches, especially on defense. If they hadn’t lost stud T Elvis Fisher for an extended period of time they would be just as good on the offensive line. They are bringing in a new starting quarterback in James Franklin and even though he’s supposed to be a stud, he’s still unproven. Also, they do have a road game at Texas A&M, so I had to give the Aggies the advantage as the dark horse (even though i think the Tigers can win that game). It was hard to pass up 17-1 on my money, but my nit picking ways made me do it.
Texas Tech (+3400): This team is still an unproven commodity under the Tommy Tuberville regime and their 3-5 conference record in 2010 did not help their cause. I think Tech will surprise a lot of people this season, but conference road games at Texas, Oklahoma, and Missouri are sure to prevent them from being a legit spoiler this season. Watch out in 2012 though.
Baylor (+3500): This should be a very dangerous team offensively, but defensively I’m not sure they could stop my college flag football team. We weren’t that good either.
Kansas State (+6000), Iowa State (+16000), Kansas (+17500): The talent isn’t there for these future Big East and Mountain West programs. These former Big 12 North teams aren't ready to compete with the Oklahoma and Texas schools on a regular basis.
Comments, questions, and opinions are always encourage.
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