Game of the Century Rematch Defies Purpose of Championship Game

The matter of opinion is what’s the matter with college football these days. 

Media and voters react in the preseason based off their perception of what one school should be or what another school isn’t. I don’t have a problem with preseason rankings. In fact, I love them as they make games early in the season more interesting to watch and talk about. I also have no problem that within this type of system there are some huge swings and misses in the rankings. 

If the media’s perception of teams was always accurate, Oklahoma and Alabama would be playing for the national title game, the ACC champion Florida State Seminoles would be BCS bound, and Texas A&M looks like it could take the SEC by storm.

If the media’s perception of teams was always accurate, we would all be wondering if Bill Snyder should’ve stayed retired, who will replace Dabo Swinney, and if it’s going to be 10 or 20 years before Baylor sees their next bowl game. None of these teams received a single vote in the AP preseason poll.

 I guess it’s a damn good thing they played out the season after the preseason poll was released.

My real problem is the way the media spins its perception of a team with a herd mentality and refuses to be individually objective. A current example would be the national media’s conviction that Alabama is the second best team in the nation.

Are you sure? Can you prove that with 100% factual positivity? 

It’s mind boggling how the majority can emphatically exclaim this in unison when college football is a sport that annually carries so many unknowns.

Fans and media that constantly clamor for a playoff system don’t seem to realize this season has presented an opportunity for them to see the closest thing to one. If LSU takes on a worthy opponent they haven’t faced this season, like OSU, it will be the closest thing to a playoff type of champion college football has ever seen.

The Tigers have been the country’s most dominating team this season (by far) and are the only AQ team left unscathed. They’ve decisively defeated the probable champs of the Pac 12 and Big East and both teams would likely receive automatic berths in many proposed playoff formats. LSU also beat Arkansas, who is a top ten team this season and a potential candidate for an at large bid in many playoff formats.

In the game of the century, LSU went into ‘Bama's turf and wa able to leave victorious. Do you realize the significance of  home field advantage in Tuscaloosa? That fan base is rabidly, foaming out the mouth, passionate for Alabama football and the Crimson Tide were unable to win this game with 102,000 screaming fans making life a living hell for the LSU players. What on earth makes people certain they can beat them on a neutral site?

If this was a playoff, LSU would be in the championship game and Alabama, Oregon, Arkansas, and West Virginia would be eliminated.

The ironic thing is Alabama hasn't been eliminated. Instead, they are in line to get a second chance to try and beat LSU because of the popular OPINION they are a better football team than Oklahoma State. LSU being a better team than Alabama is a FACT proven on the actual football field.

Where is the factual proof that Oklahoma State isn’t the better team?   

Is it fact because the media says so? Has the media watched and dissected football enough this season to where they are sure Oklahoma State wouldn’t present any match-up problems for LSU or Alabama? Did I miss where European scientist cloned Alabama and Oklahoma State’s teams and had them play a game in which Alabama won or something? How do they know this for sure?

These are the same people who thought Florida State was the 5^th best team in the nation at the beginning of this season. These are the same people that ranked Auburn #22 to begin last season. These are the same people who almost gave us a rematch in 2006 when they thought Ohio State and Michigan were the two best teams in the country, which was clearly not the case. 

Everyone has been wrong before. The difference is Florida State got a chance to prove they are not the 5th best team, Auburn was able to prove on the field they were better than #22, and Ohio State had already proven they were better than Michigan. 

I understand the desire to put who we think are the two best teams in the national championship game, but how can we know for sure? Since we already know LSU is better than Alabama, why do we need a second opinion? Why not put a team in there who has no proven result against the best team in the nation?

Oklahoma State is being penalized heavily for losing to a bowl eligible opponent on the road in double overtime. Yes, it was a bad loss. However, in 2008, Florida lost at home to a mediocre Ole Miss team and still played for the national championship. Instead of penalizing them for losing at home, the voters instead noted they had great wins against Georgia and Alabama, the only teams they beat in the regular season that were ranked in the final BCS Poll.

If Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma, they will have beaten five teams currently ranked in the BCS Poll and become conference champions. That’s three more top 25 victories than Florida had in 2008. Why can’t Oklahoma State be rewarded for their quality wins and winning their conference like the Gators were just three years ago?

Also, why was the national media prepared to give OU a pass for losing at home in regulation to Texas Tech? Before Oklahoma lost to Baylor, the media cited the Sooners could pick up a marquee win for the polls if they are able to beat Oklahoma State. Why would it be a marquee win for one school but not the other?

If the Pokes beat the Sooners and the media was alright with Oklahoma playing for the national championship, why shouldn't they be fine with Oklahoma State? Iowa State throttled Texas Tech 41-7 in Lubbock. Isn't a road loss in overtime to Iowa  State better than a loss at home to Texas Tech, especially when you consider the extenuating circumstances facing Oklahoma State on that tragic Friday?

The media assumptions and bias in favor of traditional powerhouses or the SEC is ridiculous and could prevent the fans from assurance of who is the true champion.

The consensus wants to put a weighted emphasis on losses rather than quality wins when it comes to the resumes of the one loss teams. This is fine with me as long as they are consistent about it. If losses are weighted more than quality wins, then let’s vote undefeated Houston into the national championship game. They are ranked 6^th in the BCS and don't have any bad losses (don’t roll your eyes at me).

I'm tired of hearing, without reason, that Alabama is the second best team in the nation. They might be, but they also were able to avoid Georgia and South Carolina, who are both 10 win teams and both may have provided Alabama with an upset. At least Oklahoma State beat all the marquee teams in the Big 12.

I’m not saying it’s my opinion Oklahoma State would beat either Alabama or LSU if they were to play. I just think asinine, preseason-like, assumptions leave too much to be desired in college football. This is the one season the voters can feel, with certainty, they know who the best team in the country is.


I've never seen an opinion throw a touchdown pass, make an open field tackle, kick a field goal, or run a two minute drill, but I have seen football players do it.

Even if people are truly convinced Alabama is the second best team in the nation, I think it would be idiotic not to let Oklahoma State prove otherwise assuming they beat Oklahoma. Alabama had their shot to prove they were the best and lost against LSU. When a heavyweight boxer wins a title fight, they take on challenges from different competitors to prove they are the best. They don't beat the same guy up four times in a row. Consider the Tigers college football's heavyweight champ.

Is the point of having a championship game to find out who the best team in the country is or who the two best teams in the country are?

Can the BCS really stand behind their slogan that “Every Game Counts” if a rematch is awarded to Alabama?

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Three Stats to Watch- Texas Tech @ Texas

Check out my article posted on The Victory Bells Blog in the Red Raider Sports section on the Y! Rivals platform.

Three Stats to Watch- Texas Tech @ Texas

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Three Stats to Watch- Texas Tech @ Oklahoma

Check out my article posted on The Victory Bells Blog in the Red Raider Sports section on the Y! Rivals platform.

Three Stats to Watch: Oklahoma-Texas Tech

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Three Stats to Watch- Texas Tech v Kansas State

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Three Stats to Watch- Texas Tech v Kansas State 

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Game against Texas A&M important for Tech and Tuberville

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Aggie Game Important to Tech, Tuberville

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Conspiracy Theory: Is ESPN controllong conference realignment?

Check out my article posted on The Victory Bells Blog in the Red Raider Sports section on the Y! Rivals platform.

 

ESPN's Role In Conference Realignment

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Could the LHN actually hurtTexas' recruiting efforts in the ACC?

Money talks, but it don’t pass and catch and it don’t block. As long as I can have my Be-vo TV, I’d much rather be in the A-C-C….

I’m almost positive when Neil Diamond wrote the hit song “Forever in Blue Jeans,” the last thing he imagined was a Longhorn Network Parody.

I can’t say I’m surprised though, since the Longhorn Network seems to spawn the unexpected among college football normalcy and life in general.

The Longhorn Network has turned Texas and the Big 12 into a leprosy colony since last summer. Nebraska, Colorado, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State couldn’t wait to get the hell away from both entities by jumping off the island mirage of conference paradise into open waters for whichever passing boat would have them (Big 10, Pac 12, SEC).

Now, because of the LHN, Texas might be sent off to the only conference that will save their soul- the ACC. I’m sure that’s hardly the euphoric vision the university had when finalizing their deal with ESPN.

West of the Mississippi river, the ACC isn't held in high regard when it comes to football. ACC football games are thought of as the boring games on TV before the good ones kickoff to the average fan. Of course, as a college football enthusiast I disagree, but will highly touted recruits share my sentiments?

The quality of the SEC rings loud in the state of Texas and the Aggies are a sleeping giant who might have found their alarm clock. Texas A&M may never reach the excellence of Texas, but if the Longhorns head to the ACC they weaken their recruiting  stature in the Lone Star state.

Don’t get me wrong, I am NOT saying Texas' recruiting rankings are going to plunge or become inferior to the Aggies. However, a door will open for A&M to steal some recruits from Texas they wouldn't normally have a chance to get because the SEC is a far superior football conference compared to the ACC.

This is going to be a problem for Texas regardless of where they end up, but here is my point illustrated in mathematical nomenclature:  

SEC > PAC 16 > Big 10 > Independent > LHN Conference (Big 12 leftovers) > ACC 

Out of all the options Texas can offer recruits regarding the quality of conference play, the ACC is the least appealing. That’s a huge disadvantage if you’re trying to persuade wavering recruits to come to Texas over A&M.

What happens when recruits like Malcolm Brown, Jaxon Shipley, or Quandre Diggs would rather play in the Pac 16 or SEC? Suddenly College Station and Norman do not seem like such bad places to be, rather than Austin+ACC. By going to the ACC, Texas would be self-inflicting wounds to the recruiting monster they’ve created in Austin.

If Texas has a drop off of the embarrassing riches of talent they are used to, then the play on the field could be inconsistent year in and year out. Instead of reloading players, you have to replace the great ones and losing stud recruits here and there does not help your cause. Being a national power house does not come from coaching, it comes from recruiting.

Is the LHN worth the possibility of making Texas a less attractive option for recruits, thus hindering the performance on the field?

In the Big 12, the furthest Texas would ever have to travel for a conference road game is to Iowa State. If they go solo to the ACC, the closest possible conference road game ( at Florida State) is the same distance as their trip to Ames, IA. That's a lot of extra traveling that adds up over the course of a season and that can't be good for a football team needing to win key games at the end of the season. Fans won't like it either.

Regardless where the Longhorns end up, their traveling hours are going to increase. However, at least in the PAC 16 format they would still have road games against familiar foes (Texas Tech and Oklahoma State) within a 7 hour drive or cheap 60-90 minute flights. Florida State is around a 14 hour drive and the flights are 2-3 times as expensive. How is that going affect recruits whose parents want to travel to see their kids play? 

Side Note: I assume the game against Red River Rivalry against Oklahoma will continue regardless of where Texas ends up. If for some reason an ACC departure for Texas results in this games loss, then this becomes an ever bigger issue in this whole mess.

Financially, this would be the best move for Texas assuming the ACC is the only conference that lets them keep their network. However, keeping the money associated with the LHN does not help the Longhorns increase the branding power they were hoping to get out of their TV channel with the ACC attached to it.

Having an abundance of money for your university is great, but it doesn’t necessarily help you win football games. When was the last time you saw Harvard win a national championship?

It's amazing  how a program with the history and bravado of Texas can be so unwanted because of a network that is only a few months old. It seems years of exerting their power and riches has finally caught up with the leprosy Longhorns. Hopefully, for their sake, the money grab maneuver to the ACC won't stifle their recruiting efforts or play on the field.

Forget about the money though. Texas' pride is on the line here and they aren't going to let a bunch of pipsqueaks ruin their network, even if it means setting up shop in the ACC.

When it comes to the Longhorn Network,  for Texas, the ACC never seemed so good (so good, so good).

A Day in the life of the Big 12....

They say a picture is worth 1,000 words.....

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Why Larry Scott must become Chuck Norris

With Texas A&M embarking on a journey to the SEC to find themselves, the Big 12 scurries to find a solid replacement to strengthen the conference. The official public position of the remaining nine members in the fragmented conference is that the Big 12 is an entity worth saving. However, if you take a hard look between the lines, it feels Texas is the only school that truly has those feelings.

And why shouldn’t they? The Longhorns can feel their omnipotent reign over the Big 12 conference slowly slipping out of the grasp in which they control it. Their conference “partners”, who they have built a burnt orange wall of dependence around, have found cracks in Big 12 landscape and are strategically positioning themselves to escape in the middle of the night.

Texas knows if the Big 12 can move swiftly and bring in quality replacements for their recently departed programs, then public pressure will force Oklahoma to stay. If Oklahoma stays, that means Oklahoma State and Texas Tech will remain. Missouri doesn’t look like they are going anywhere either as the SEC hasn’t called yet and the Big 10 isn’t calling them back. In this case, Texas regains their stranglehold on the Big 12, and their pockets remain fat from conference and ESPN dollars.

However, if any of those four teams leave (OU, OKST, TTU, Mizz), then this conference will fall faster than a man on stilts fighting a ninja.

It’s time for Larry Scott to become that ninja.

For the sake of the Pac 12, Larry Scott better elicit his inner Chuck Norris and deliver one, swift, roundhouse kick to the Big 12. 

The SEC and Big 10 have the luxury to be more methodical about conference expansion. They have numerous geographical options around them with quality teams from the Big East, ACC, and Big 12 conferences. Geographically, he Pac 12 has the Big 12, Mountain West, and the WAC.

Larry Scott is on record saying he believes 16 team super conferences are the future in college football, so why not continue expanding now? If the Big 12 consolidates back into a sturdy and steady commodity, what other options are there for expansion in the future- Air Force, Boise State, BYU, Hawaii, Nevada? Poaching Big East or ACC teams would be a nightmare on the athletic budget for both parties and it would never work out.

The fact is, the Pac 12 has very few illustrious commodities to choose from outside of the Big 12. Before Texas gets the Big 12 back on solid ground, Scott must attack it. How though?

Invite Texas Tech to the party. 

They are the perfect card to pull to make the Big 12 house of cards fall down. Texas Tech’s athletic director, Kirby Hocutt, recently stated “Our focus will continue to be on what’s best for Texas Tech University and what’s best for Texas Tech University is continuing to be a proud member of the Big 12 Conference and a part of the Big 12 Conference in the future.”  Look, Texas Tech is a great university, but Hocutt and Texas Tech know they don’t have any other options, which is why they must pledge their allegiance to the Big 12. Hocutt’s statement clearly leaves Texas Tech’s commitment to the Big 12 in flux, since he also states he will do what’s best for Texas Tech.

 If a stable and equal revenue sharing conference, like the Pac 12, were to extend an invite to Tech, it’s almost certain they would make the transition as it would be a overall option for the university. Unlike Joe Castiglione at Oklahoma, it’s pretty certain that Hocutt and company would receive little, if any, public backlash in making this decision. They are a great  fit geographically out of West Texas and would bring in a piece of the Texas market for the Pac 12- which is important and I’ll explain why in a minute.

If Texas Tech leaves, the Big 12 is down to eight members, which severely cripples the conference. Finding two logical fits comparable to the quality of Texas A&M and Texas Tech would be almost impossible. Remember, the conference needs 10 teams or their TV deal is void and patching it up with programs like SMU and Houston would be embarrassing for the remaining members (no offense to those schools).

Now, with Big 12 landscape looking extremely unstable, Oklahoma will have no choice bolt for the Pac 12. There are rumblings that this is what the Sooners have wanted all along, but huge ties to the importance of their rivalry with Texas have prevented them from making the leap. Castiglione can publicly position Oklahoma’s decision to join the Pac 12 as one out of absolute necessity for Sooner athletics. This will help prevent any detrimental side effects to a very important tradition (and moneymaker) in the Red River Rivalry with Texas.

Now that Oklahoma has accepted their invite, Oklahoma State will also be invited and any political drama avoided. Even though Oklahoma State won’t build the Pac 12 brand the same way Oklahoma will, they are a first class athletic program backed by a lot of booster dollars that will keep the product on the field at a high level.

Now that Texas Tech, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State are in the Pac 12, the Big 12 is officially dead. Chuck Norris is still undefeated.

Now the Pac 12 is in a position of power to negotiate with Texas, who has stated emphatically they do not want to be an independent entity. The main issue that blocked realignment last summer was Larry Scott’s stance on the Longhorn Network. Scott thought didn’t think it would be beneficial for his vision of a Pac 12 network and unfair to other members of the conference. Texas and the Pac 12 couldn’t come to an agreement.

It’s understandable why this was non-negotiable for Texas last summer. In the Big 12, they are allowed their network and it’s $300 million dollars on top of the money they get from the Big 12 conference deals.  Obviously, this is why the Longhorns are fighting so hard to keep the Big 12 alive.

Only in Austin, TX is there, literally, such thing as a cash cow (Hi Bevo). 

Last summer, the Big 12 was still standing, so it didn’t make financial sense to drop their network opportunity and join the Pac 12. In this scenario, the Big 12 has fallen, so now would Texas be more agreeable to terms that would allow them to join the Pac 12? I can think of $300 million reasons why they won’t.

Even though, ideally, the Pac 12 and Texas want each other, I’m not sure these two could ever agree on a wedding date. If, ever, there was a scenario where the Pac 12 could get Texas to compromise, this is it.

So, let’s say Texas doesn’t join the Pac 12 and the conference is still looking for one more member, who is it? Naturally you would think Missouri, but a different school comes to mind for me.

The TCU Horned Frogs.

TCU has recently parlayed its success in the Mountain West into an invite from the Big East. The quality of their football program, on and off the field, is growing at a rapid pace. TCU would give the Pac 12 a double dip into the Texas market- a move that Sports Business Expert, Kristi Dosh agrees with in her super conference column. Recently, Dan Wetzel of Yahoo! Sports has also presented the “TCU Double Dip Theory” in one of his columns, saying the SEC should invite the Horned Frogs to help double down in their newly expanded Texas TV market. TCU’s Texas ties should be far more appealing to the Pac 12, compared to Missouri.

By sending the first invite to Texas Tech, the Pac 12 leaves their options open in the Texas market. If they were to take Texas, they are most likely going to have to take Texas Tech anyways. If they can't get Texas, then they leave their options open to grab the next best option in the Texas market, TCU.

Now with Texas Tech and TCU, the new Pac 16 has the best available pipelines into Texas.

By acting brash, Larry Scott could put his conference in position to add four perennial Top 25 caliber football programs and a massive amount of TV sets.

If he sits back while Texas and Dan Beebe work feverishly to save the Big 12 conference, he could be stuck with low quality, filler program from the Mountain West and the WAC as his only option for realignment. Adding teams like Air Force, Boise State, BYU, Hawaii, and Nevada, would certainly make the Pac 16 conference the “Big East” of the super conferences, which wouldn’t be all that “super” for them.

For the sake of the Pac 12's future, Scott needs to be aggressive with his actions.

Somewhere in Lubbock, a secretary answers the phone….

“Excuse me, Mr. Hocutt. I have Chuck Norris on line one.”

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2011 Big 12 Preview: Analyzing the Odds

The way things have gone for the Big 12 conference the past two off seasons, this could very well be the last year of it's existence. Right now, as you are reading this, another team just left the Big 12.

This will be the first season the Big 12 show cases their 10 team conference and forgoes a championship game at the end of the season. Instead, it will be round robin conference play with the best record getting crowned as the champions.

This year the Big 12 features four teams ranked in the AP Poll: Oklahoma (#1), Texas A&M (#8), Oklahoma State (#9), and Missouri (#21). It’s pretty crazy to think the only conference with three teams ranked in the top ten is teetering among the land of the dinosaurs- extinction.

Regardless of all the off the field drama between school presidents, there is actually some great football to be played and some intriguing value out there in various teams.

***If you place a wager, please wager responsibly. Do NOT place a wager that is outside your financial means. If you can’t afford to lose that amount, then it is outside your means. There have never been and never will be a LOCK on any particular game. Anything can happen inside the lines on any given day, like a 36 point underdog in Stanford beating USC on the road in 2007.

Now that you plan to wager responsibly, let’s take a look at some Vegas odds on the Big 12 Conference.

Big 12 Champion

Projected Winner- Oklahoma (-195): Oklahoma returns one of the nation’s most prolific passing offenses, led by QB Landry Jones. Jones has some serious weapons at his disposal at WR, in Ryan Broyles and the underrated Kenny Stills. It doesn’t hurt that Oklahoma has four offensive linemen returning that should be among the conference’s best groups at the position. As long as the Sooners can replace DeMarco Murray with the same level of production (which they should have no problem doing), their offense will be one of the most dynamic in the nation.

Defensively, Oklahoma does have some question marks in their front seven. Their defensive line needs their stud recruits to step up and their linebackers must hold it down until Travis Lewis returns from injury. Their secondary is a very solidified unit now that Jamell Fleming cleared academically for the 2011 season. They are going to need to improve in the front seven to be dominate defense this season.

Oklahoma gets Missouri, Texas Tech, and Texas A&M at home which is huge for the Sooners who are 72-2 at home under Bob Stoops. That is a significant advantage for Oklahoma and the thought of any losses in Norman diminish considering that record. Road games at Kansas, Kansas State, and Baylor should all be easy wins for the Sooners. Their road game in Stillwater might be the one that gets tricky. Even though the Sooners have won the past eight meetings, including their last four at Oklahoma State, things could get a little tricky for Oklahoma in Stillwater. I haven't even mentioned their game against Texas yet, which shows just how much of an after thought they are this season in the Big 12.

There is a good chance Oklahoma will be undefeated in Big 12 play heading into the Bedlam showdown against Oklahoma State. There is a good chance that the OU money line for that game could be similar to the (-195) line posted for Oklahoma to win the Big 12. However, given Oklahoma State’s schedule (@A&M, @TTU, @Mizzou, @Texas), there is a good chance they will not be in a position where that game decides the conference.  A bet on Oklahoma will probably be a winner and even though I hate laying that type of juice, I might have to throw something the Sooners way.

Value Wager- Texas A&M (+700): In the Big 12 this season, there are limited actual value wagers regarding surprise teams taking the conference. This year, it’s more about deciding which team can defeat Oklahoma and has the best schedule in conference play.

Texas A&M should be a great team this season. They return their savior at QB, Ryan Tannehill, a plethora of weapons at the skill positions, and four starters on the offensive line. Eight starters return on a defense that will be in their 3^rd year under Tim DeRuyter, who has really transformed the Aggie’s defense since his arrival. Things are looking good on both sides of the ball for the Aggies and they have the type of team balance you need to challenge Oklahoma.

Other than the road game in Norman (reminder: OU is 72-2 at home under Stoops), the schedule sets up nicely for the Aggies. They get Oklahoma State, Missouri, and Texas at Kyle field; one of the toughest places to play in college football. They do have a tricky game against Texas Tech in Lubbock that comes after a back to back with Oklahoma State and Arkansas, but it’s definitely winnable. If they can take care of business at home and somehow hand Stoops his third loss in Norman, things could be looking good for the Aggie's last hoorah. 

If Texas A&M is the team everyone is expecting them to be, their game in Norman could literally end up being the deciding factor in who wins the Big 12. If that happens to be the case, then there is a huge value on them at (+700) for that one game, which equates to them being around 17-20 point under dogs (very doubtful). This play has great value in this scenario, however given Stoop’s record in Norman, I can’t see a good reason to drop a big wager on it. A small one will do.

Why Not

Texas (+1000): Six new assistant coaches is a lot of overhaul and can be a difficult transition in year one. I’m not sure Texas' offense will be in the top half of the Big 12 as OU, OKST, TTU, A&M, Mizzou, and Baylor are all better. Even if they are vastly improved from the putrid 5-7 team we saw last year, their games @Mizzou, @A&M, and against OU are going to be tough to navigate to be a contender in the conference.

Oklahoma State (+1100): I’m sure you already know this, but this offense is going to be electrifying. IF their Big 12 schedule didn’t consist of road games at A&M, Texas, Missouri, and Texas Tech, I probably would’ve chosen them as my “Value Team.” They just don’t have the defense to go on the road like that and not endure at least two losses.

Missouri (+1700): This was ALMOST my “Value Team.” They are going to be very good in the trenches, especially on defense. If they hadn’t lost stud T Elvis Fisher for an extended period of time they would be just as good on the offensive line. They are bringing in a new starting quarterback in James Franklin and even though he’s supposed to be a stud, he’s still unproven. Also, they do have a road game at Texas A&M, so I had to give the Aggies the advantage as the dark horse (even though i think the Tigers can win that game). It was hard to pass up 17-1 on my money, but my nit picking ways made me do it.

Texas Tech (+3400): This team is still an unproven commodity under the Tommy Tuberville regime and their 3-5 conference record in 2010 did not help their cause. I think Tech will surprise a lot of people this season, but conference road games at Texas, Oklahoma, and Missouri are sure to prevent them from being a legit spoiler this season. Watch out in 2012 though.

Baylor (+3500): This should be a very dangerous team offensively, but defensively I’m not sure they could stop my college flag football team. We weren’t that good either.

Kansas State (+6000), Iowa State (+16000), Kansas (+17500): The talent isn’t there for these future Big East and Mountain West programs. These former Big 12 North teams aren't ready to compete with the Oklahoma and Texas schools on a regular basis.

Comments, questions, and opinions are always encourage.

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The not so Big 12

The Big 12 conference has turned into an enthralling game of Jenga. One risky maneuver after another has this conference teetering on the edge of collapsing, yet somehow it is still standing.

Big 12 officials, minus Texas A&M, exclaim via various media outlets that they have been working feverishly to keep the conference together and ensure solidarity if it remains intact.

What’s the point?

Either this is Déjà vu or we have all already witnessed the Big 12 telling us they’ve  become blood brothers for life. Texas A&M and Missouri have both made it perfectly clear they want out of the Big 12 and fans are supposed to believe that a hug and some kum ba yah are going to fix things?  

Did you forget that a certain portion of your fan base graduated from your institution? Expecting them to believe your statement of “solidarity” (for the second time) is basically saying the education they received from your institution was not of a high enough quality where they can decipher the true state of the conference. Maybe they should be refunded? 

Money is the only reason this conference is being propped up at the moment and portrayed as if everything will be fine, just like old times. Money is the reason that this conference will eventually fold. Money is evil.

Texas does NOT want the conference to fold either. They are adamant they do not want to go independent and the PAC 12, Big 10, and SEC would never allow them in with their network. Texas found a way to make money grow on trees and they will never give that up for any conference.

And why should they? They have one of the largest and most loyal fan bases in the country. They have a great opportunity to bring them more coverage of Texas athletics then they could have ever imagined- for a small fee of course. 

A normal game against Rice, Texas fans fill up the stadium in its entirety even though they know it’s going to be a completely lopsided beat down. Ask Kirby Hocutt if he thinks Texas Tech fans will do the same for their opener against Texas State. They won’t, he’s not that lucky. 

Texas is lucky though and they have a fan base that will attend or watch every game regardless of their opponent. Now the university seeks to exploit their fans pockets even further by trying to get them to fork over their hard earned cash and subscribe to their network to watch a tune up game against Rice or, more importantly, a Big 12 conference game? Its one thing if they are providing extra coverage above and beyond the games, but the games themselves!? CMON.

What’s the next step for the Corporation of Texas to maximize profit on their assets? Are they going to put Bevo out to stud?

I can’t and won’t fault Texas for their ambition, but the greed and self-righteous power trip they are on, trying to impose their will on their conference “partners,” will be the root of conference’s demise. They've already scared off a fantastic football program in Nebraska and now they are pushing one of their biggest rivals out the door in A&M.

When the Big 12 crumbles, that $300 million practically guarantees Texas becomes a conference-less independent football program. By their actions, it seems that is something that Texas wants.

From a competitive stand point, I will never understand the appeal to be an independent entity. It's like you're a satellite in orbit in the College Football universe. What exactly are you playing for? Sure you have opponents to play against on the field in a singular game, but what teams are you competing against? It’s not like you can win your conference because you’re not in one and you're playing against the polls.

Now that game against Oklahoma every year is now just another game on the schedule instead of one with massive conference and national title implications. It would be unforgivable if that game lost any of its shine.

Don’t let A&M fool you into thinking their departure is strictly because of Texas and their evil ways, because it’s not. The TLN is just a convenient excuse for the Aggies to get out of the shadow of Texas and go try to make more money for their program. Their opportunity is being piggy backed on the issue of the TLN airing high school games and Texas A&M’s supposed angst towards the recruiting advantages doing so would provide for Texas.

Even though Texas has been banned from airing high school games on their network, A&M is still pressing on, upset, and headed towards the SEC.

The Texas A&M situation reminds me of Mike Leach and Texas Tech. It was well documented that the Tech brass, feeling slighted and outsmarted, was looking for any excuse to use to get out of their brand new contract with Coach Leach (which was well documented). When the slightest opportunity arose, they pounced on it and acted hastily before due process could play out, thus achieving their hidden agenda and never looking back. Does the TLN’s consideration of airing high school games not look like A&M’s proverbial electrical closet? It does to me.

If Texas is Zack Morris and Oklahoma is AC Slater, A&M has been the Screech of the conference. Always aspiring to live up to the successes of Zack and Slater, usually falling short, but once managed to steal a kiss from Kelly Kapowski. It’s no wonder A&M’s inferiority complex is causing them to seek a transfer to Valley High (sorry if you are not familiar with Saved By the Bell).

While ultimately it seems A&M’s desire to move to the SEC is a calculated business move, it’s also very apparent that their hatred for Texas has moved past the point of continuing the 117 year old football rivalry and it's tradition.

Don’t let the SEC fool you either as they lean back in their chair with their hands in the air saying, “Hey they came to us, man.” They started this process last year, when Mike Slive flew into College Station amidst the “Pac 16” hoopla to try to persuade A&M to head East. He wasn’t trying to be a hospitable neighbor to the Aggies either, but rather expand the brand and money for his football conference.

With the addition of Texas A&M, who is a Top 15 football program, the SEC gets some HUGE TV markets and a pipeline into Texas football recruiting. The monetary advantage for the SEC is huge and you can bet next month’s rent that the 14^th team added will increase SEC monies as well. New TV markets are why you will hear Virginia Tech, North Carolina, and Missouri rumored to be in the expansion mix.

This is the new landscape of College Football. Forget about history, tradition, and rivalries. Get familiar with Super Conferences, ESPN, and marketability.

Dan Beebe DeLoss Dodds isn’t trying to save the Big 12 conference to protect your fandom. He’s trying to protect the Billions of dollars tied into its existence. I’m sure he and Bill Byrne are a little bit upset the classic rivalry will fade over the next few years, but they had better things to do around Thanksgiving every year anyways.

I am all for college football programs and conferences trying to maximize their earning potential as long as they can do it without messing up the brand.

Do you want to see the Texas Longhorns in Blue uniforms? I don’t either, but the way things are going in college football anything is a possibility as long as it helps the bottom line.

I doubt the BI9 12 will be around for much longer and that is a damn shame.

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Doomsday: A Super Conference Scenario

As discontent and concern with the Texas Longhorn Network’s programming arise, so do the rumblings of a doomsday scenario for the Big 12.

The Big 12 soap opera, starring the Texas Longhorns, continues to build towards the finale of Season 2: Conference Instability. 

And no, the Longhorns do not intend to air this on their network.

Disgruntled Texas A&M isn’t showing their cards and it is unsure if their threats of bolting for the SEC are legit or if they are playing the part of a grounded child threatening to run away.

Lets pretend the Aggies do run away from home and this allows Texas to go independent. Where would the rest of the Big 12 realign and would this trigger riot like robbery of other BCS conferences to create “Super Conferences?”

In the end, I came up with a preamble to a true Super Conference scenario.Lets take a look.
 

SEC (14)	BIG 10 (16)	Big East (12)	PAC 12 (12)	ACC  (12)
Florida	Iowa	Pittsburgh	California	Boston College
Georgia	Michigan	West Virginia	Oregon	UNC
Kentucky	Michigan State	Rutgers	Oregon State	NC State
South Carolina	Minnesota	Cincinnati	Stanford	Virginia
Tennessee	Nebraska	Syracuse	Washington	Virginia Tech
Vanderbilt	Northwestern	UCONN	Wash State	Wake Forest
Missouri	Purdue
	Wisconsin
Alabama	Illinois	Louisville	Arizona	Duke
Arkansas	Indiana	SFU	Arizona State	Clemson
Auburn	Ohio State	TCU	Colorado	Florida State
LSU	Penn State	Kansas	UCLA	Maryland
Miss State	Oklahoma	Kansas State	USC	Georgia Tech
Ole Miss	Oklahoma St	UCF	Utah	Miami
A&M	Texas Tech
	Baylor

Naturally, Texas A&M makes the first move and jumps ship to the SEC. This is a good move for the SEC, who can now claim a share in the Dallas and Houston TV Markets.

Not only are they getting TV ratings, but they would be adding one of the top football programs in the nation. Texas A&M has one of the largest stadiums in College Football (approx. 83,000), top notch facilities, and a plethora of tradition and pride in their program. They even claim to be the “Alabama of the West.”

Next the SEC would try to court the Oklahoma Sooners and add another national powerhouse to the conference. This could become a very sticky situation because the SEC is stuck in their current TV deal.

OU comes paired with Oklahoma State. I do not see a financial advantage for the SEC by adding Oklahoma State and having to split their pie even further. 

If Oklahoma State comes, then the conference would almost have to add a 4^th team to make divisions even for competition purposes. Basically, Oklahoma equals three pieces of the pie and I think the value of the current conference makeup outweighs adding Oklahoma and two friends.

In this situation, the SEC should look to add one more team. I think they would turn their focus to Florida State and pursue them vigorously, only to be spurned by the Seminoles. 

So what now?

Missouri was ready to bolt from the Big 12 conference last summer and was pining for an invite from the B1G  (that’s Big Ten and yes spellcheck , B1G is a word). 

For reason’s unknown, the invite never came and Missouri’s desire to escape from the Big 12 was duly noted by many around the country.  If the Big 10 didn’t want Mizzou, why would the SEC? 

On top of being a quality football program, Missouri offers the SEC potential to tap into the Midwest TV market and they are also the best available fit to even out the divisions in the SEC. 

I think Missouri is expecting a Big 10 invitation in a few years when the conferences TV deal with ABC/ESPN is up in 2016. However, if the SEC were to send them an invitation, even in the form of a tweet, I think Mizzou would accept without hesitation.

Now that Oklahoma has spurned the SEC, this becomes a great opportunity for the Big 10. Jim Delany has to be looking at the Pac 12’s new TV deal, less than a year after expansion, and wondering what the Big 10 could get in 2016 if they expanded.

If the Big 12 begins to crack, I would not be shocked to see Jim Delany make an aggressive move towards expanding the conference with Oklahoma as the centerpiece and Oklahoma State. 

I believe the “Big 12 South” group would stick together and the Big 10 would take Texas Tech and Baylor, with the consolation that at least they are tapping into the Texas recruiting pipeline and TV markets. If the Big 10 wants to expand South, they almost certainly would have to stomach adding Baylor even though they would probably prefer TCU.

Now equipped with Nebraska, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, and Baylor, they will be salivating to start negotiations in 2016. 

Rumor has it they will finally change their name from the Big Ten Conference to the Big Ten National Bank once the deal is finalized. No word yet on the new logo. 

I think the Big East is a considered a candidate for invasion due to the national perception of an overall lack of elite competition in the conference. Take the 2011 coaches poll as an example - ZERO Big East teams ranked in the Top 25.

However, I think the invasion of the Big East would come in “Phase 2” of Super Conference alignment when four conferences of 16 are created. For now, they will be in a great position to pick up some pieces to strengthen the overall quality of the conference.

The Big East made a very quiet and opportunistic move last summer by adding TCU to the conference beginning in 2012. They add a pipeline in the Texas market, as well as a program that finished ranked 7^th, 6^th, and 2^nd in the final AP Poll from 2008-2010.  A great football move for the conference.

Next, the Big East can recruit some Big 12 leftovers, Kansas and Kansas State. Kansas had some recent success with a BCS Bowl victory in 2007 and Kansas State was wildly successful under Bill Snyder in earlier years, so there is some level of respect that comes with these programs.

The Big East is widely considered the best brand of College Basketball and bringing in Kansas and Kansas State certainly will help their cause in that aspect (especially Kansas).

The last addition was between a handful of C-USA teams and in the end I chose Central Florida. They are a natural fit for the conference and their recent bowl win our Georgia also gives them credibility on the field.

Adding these teams and remaining opportunistic increases the conferences stability and certainly helps them increase their revenue for their upcoming TV deal in 2013.

 

At this point, I couldn’t see the PAC 12 making a move to add four more teams to the conference. Yes, they made a huge push last summer to add teams, but they also had negotiations of a new TV deal on the horizon.

Now that they have secured a monster deal and each conference member will be paid handsomely. It’s hard to imagine them wanting to share that revenue further, especially when it seems they are ahead of the curve for now.

I went back and forth on where the Big 12 South teams would fall. At this point, I did not feel it made financial sense for the PAC 12 to add four more teams. It was hard to dismiss them as a landing spot since Larry Scott has the reputation of someone who will look at every angle and opportunity. 

One angle I came across with the PAC 12 was, IF the College Football landscape did shift to four super conferences, where would they find four quality teams like the Big 12 South? Geographically and traditionally, there are few teams that would make sense for the conference that would be left over (assuming BYU and Texas remain independent).

I could see Larry Scott making the move to protect the conference’s future in a super conference scenario, but in the end I couldn’t pull the trigger.

The only scenario I could see playing out where the ACC added teams was if the Big East dissolved. Since this did not happen, no teams were added.

I did tinker with a scenario where the SEC was able to steal Florida State and Miami away from the conference, but the more I researched I felt this was very unlikely for the time being.

I think the next step in this situation would happen if the SEC poaches teams from the ACC like Florida State, Miami, Georgia Tech, Clemson, or Virgina Tech. If that were to happen, then I think the Big East would get raided.



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