Could the LHN actually hurtTexas' recruiting efforts in the ACC?

Money talks, but it don’t pass and catch and it don’t block. As long as I can have my Be-vo TV, I’d much rather be in the A-C-C….

I’m almost positive when Neil Diamond wrote the hit song “Forever in Blue Jeans,” the last thing he imagined was a Longhorn Network Parody.

I can’t say I’m surprised though, since the Longhorn Network seems to spawn the unexpected among college football normalcy and life in general.

The Longhorn Network has turned Texas and the Big 12 into a leprosy colony since last summer. Nebraska, Colorado, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State couldn’t wait to get the hell away from both entities by jumping off the island mirage of conference paradise into open waters for whichever passing boat would have them (Big 10, Pac 12, SEC).

Now, because of the LHN, Texas might be sent off to the only conference that will save their soul- the ACC. I’m sure that’s hardly the euphoric vision the university had when finalizing their deal with ESPN.

West of the Mississippi river, the ACC isn't held in high regard when it comes to football. ACC football games are thought of as the boring games on TV before the good ones kickoff to the average fan. Of course, as a college football enthusiast I disagree, but will highly touted recruits share my sentiments?

The quality of the SEC rings loud in the state of Texas and the Aggies are a sleeping giant who might have found their alarm clock. Texas A&M may never reach the excellence of Texas, but if the Longhorns head to the ACC they weaken their recruiting  stature in the Lone Star state.

Don’t get me wrong, I am NOT saying Texas' recruiting rankings are going to plunge or become inferior to the Aggies. However, a door will open for A&M to steal some recruits from Texas they wouldn't normally have a chance to get because the SEC is a far superior football conference compared to the ACC.

This is going to be a problem for Texas regardless of where they end up, but here is my point illustrated in mathematical nomenclature:  

SEC > PAC 16 > Big 10 > Independent > LHN Conference (Big 12 leftovers) > ACC 

Out of all the options Texas can offer recruits regarding the quality of conference play, the ACC is the least appealing. That’s a huge disadvantage if you’re trying to persuade wavering recruits to come to Texas over A&M.

What happens when recruits like Malcolm Brown, Jaxon Shipley, or Quandre Diggs would rather play in the Pac 16 or SEC? Suddenly College Station and Norman do not seem like such bad places to be, rather than Austin+ACC. By going to the ACC, Texas would be self-inflicting wounds to the recruiting monster they’ve created in Austin.

If Texas has a drop off of the embarrassing riches of talent they are used to, then the play on the field could be inconsistent year in and year out. Instead of reloading players, you have to replace the great ones and losing stud recruits here and there does not help your cause. Being a national power house does not come from coaching, it comes from recruiting.

Is the LHN worth the possibility of making Texas a less attractive option for recruits, thus hindering the performance on the field?

In the Big 12, the furthest Texas would ever have to travel for a conference road game is to Iowa State. If they go solo to the ACC, the closest possible conference road game ( at Florida State) is the same distance as their trip to Ames, IA. That's a lot of extra traveling that adds up over the course of a season and that can't be good for a football team needing to win key games at the end of the season. Fans won't like it either.

Regardless where the Longhorns end up, their traveling hours are going to increase. However, at least in the PAC 16 format they would still have road games against familiar foes (Texas Tech and Oklahoma State) within a 7 hour drive or cheap 60-90 minute flights. Florida State is around a 14 hour drive and the flights are 2-3 times as expensive. How is that going affect recruits whose parents want to travel to see their kids play? 

Side Note: I assume the game against Red River Rivalry against Oklahoma will continue regardless of where Texas ends up. If for some reason an ACC departure for Texas results in this games loss, then this becomes an ever bigger issue in this whole mess.

Financially, this would be the best move for Texas assuming the ACC is the only conference that lets them keep their network. However, keeping the money associated with the LHN does not help the Longhorns increase the branding power they were hoping to get out of their TV channel with the ACC attached to it.

Having an abundance of money for your university is great, but it doesn’t necessarily help you win football games. When was the last time you saw Harvard win a national championship?

It's amazing  how a program with the history and bravado of Texas can be so unwanted because of a network that is only a few months old. It seems years of exerting their power and riches has finally caught up with the leprosy Longhorns. Hopefully, for their sake, the money grab maneuver to the ACC won't stifle their recruiting efforts or play on the field.

Forget about the money though. Texas' pride is on the line here and they aren't going to let a bunch of pipsqueaks ruin their network, even if it means setting up shop in the ACC.

When it comes to the Longhorn Network,  for Texas, the ACC never seemed so good (so good, so good).

Why Larry Scott must become Chuck Norris

With Texas A&M embarking on a journey to the SEC to find themselves, the Big 12 scurries to find a solid replacement to strengthen the conference. The official public position of the remaining nine members in the fragmented conference is that the Big 12 is an entity worth saving. However, if you take a hard look between the lines, it feels Texas is the only school that truly has those feelings.

And why shouldn’t they? The Longhorns can feel their omnipotent reign over the Big 12 conference slowly slipping out of the grasp in which they control it. Their conference “partners”, who they have built a burnt orange wall of dependence around, have found cracks in Big 12 landscape and are strategically positioning themselves to escape in the middle of the night.

Texas knows if the Big 12 can move swiftly and bring in quality replacements for their recently departed programs, then public pressure will force Oklahoma to stay. If Oklahoma stays, that means Oklahoma State and Texas Tech will remain. Missouri doesn’t look like they are going anywhere either as the SEC hasn’t called yet and the Big 10 isn’t calling them back. In this case, Texas regains their stranglehold on the Big 12, and their pockets remain fat from conference and ESPN dollars.

However, if any of those four teams leave (OU, OKST, TTU, Mizz), then this conference will fall faster than a man on stilts fighting a ninja.

It’s time for Larry Scott to become that ninja.

For the sake of the Pac 12, Larry Scott better elicit his inner Chuck Norris and deliver one, swift, roundhouse kick to the Big 12. 

The SEC and Big 10 have the luxury to be more methodical about conference expansion. They have numerous geographical options around them with quality teams from the Big East, ACC, and Big 12 conferences. Geographically, he Pac 12 has the Big 12, Mountain West, and the WAC.

Larry Scott is on record saying he believes 16 team super conferences are the future in college football, so why not continue expanding now? If the Big 12 consolidates back into a sturdy and steady commodity, what other options are there for expansion in the future- Air Force, Boise State, BYU, Hawaii, Nevada? Poaching Big East or ACC teams would be a nightmare on the athletic budget for both parties and it would never work out.

The fact is, the Pac 12 has very few illustrious commodities to choose from outside of the Big 12. Before Texas gets the Big 12 back on solid ground, Scott must attack it. How though?

Invite Texas Tech to the party. 

They are the perfect card to pull to make the Big 12 house of cards fall down. Texas Tech’s athletic director, Kirby Hocutt, recently stated “Our focus will continue to be on what’s best for Texas Tech University and what’s best for Texas Tech University is continuing to be a proud member of the Big 12 Conference and a part of the Big 12 Conference in the future.”  Look, Texas Tech is a great university, but Hocutt and Texas Tech know they don’t have any other options, which is why they must pledge their allegiance to the Big 12. Hocutt’s statement clearly leaves Texas Tech’s commitment to the Big 12 in flux, since he also states he will do what’s best for Texas Tech.

 If a stable and equal revenue sharing conference, like the Pac 12, were to extend an invite to Tech, it’s almost certain they would make the transition as it would be a overall option for the university. Unlike Joe Castiglione at Oklahoma, it’s pretty certain that Hocutt and company would receive little, if any, public backlash in making this decision. They are a great  fit geographically out of West Texas and would bring in a piece of the Texas market for the Pac 12- which is important and I’ll explain why in a minute.

If Texas Tech leaves, the Big 12 is down to eight members, which severely cripples the conference. Finding two logical fits comparable to the quality of Texas A&M and Texas Tech would be almost impossible. Remember, the conference needs 10 teams or their TV deal is void and patching it up with programs like SMU and Houston would be embarrassing for the remaining members (no offense to those schools).

Now, with Big 12 landscape looking extremely unstable, Oklahoma will have no choice bolt for the Pac 12. There are rumblings that this is what the Sooners have wanted all along, but huge ties to the importance of their rivalry with Texas have prevented them from making the leap. Castiglione can publicly position Oklahoma’s decision to join the Pac 12 as one out of absolute necessity for Sooner athletics. This will help prevent any detrimental side effects to a very important tradition (and moneymaker) in the Red River Rivalry with Texas.

Now that Oklahoma has accepted their invite, Oklahoma State will also be invited and any political drama avoided. Even though Oklahoma State won’t build the Pac 12 brand the same way Oklahoma will, they are a first class athletic program backed by a lot of booster dollars that will keep the product on the field at a high level.

Now that Texas Tech, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State are in the Pac 12, the Big 12 is officially dead. Chuck Norris is still undefeated.

Now the Pac 12 is in a position of power to negotiate with Texas, who has stated emphatically they do not want to be an independent entity. The main issue that blocked realignment last summer was Larry Scott’s stance on the Longhorn Network. Scott thought didn’t think it would be beneficial for his vision of a Pac 12 network and unfair to other members of the conference. Texas and the Pac 12 couldn’t come to an agreement.

It’s understandable why this was non-negotiable for Texas last summer. In the Big 12, they are allowed their network and it’s $300 million dollars on top of the money they get from the Big 12 conference deals.  Obviously, this is why the Longhorns are fighting so hard to keep the Big 12 alive.

Only in Austin, TX is there, literally, such thing as a cash cow (Hi Bevo). 

Last summer, the Big 12 was still standing, so it didn’t make financial sense to drop their network opportunity and join the Pac 12. In this scenario, the Big 12 has fallen, so now would Texas be more agreeable to terms that would allow them to join the Pac 12? I can think of $300 million reasons why they won’t.

Even though, ideally, the Pac 12 and Texas want each other, I’m not sure these two could ever agree on a wedding date. If, ever, there was a scenario where the Pac 12 could get Texas to compromise, this is it.

So, let’s say Texas doesn’t join the Pac 12 and the conference is still looking for one more member, who is it? Naturally you would think Missouri, but a different school comes to mind for me.

The TCU Horned Frogs.

TCU has recently parlayed its success in the Mountain West into an invite from the Big East. The quality of their football program, on and off the field, is growing at a rapid pace. TCU would give the Pac 12 a double dip into the Texas market- a move that Sports Business Expert, Kristi Dosh agrees with in her super conference column. Recently, Dan Wetzel of Yahoo! Sports has also presented the “TCU Double Dip Theory” in one of his columns, saying the SEC should invite the Horned Frogs to help double down in their newly expanded Texas TV market. TCU’s Texas ties should be far more appealing to the Pac 12, compared to Missouri.

By sending the first invite to Texas Tech, the Pac 12 leaves their options open in the Texas market. If they were to take Texas, they are most likely going to have to take Texas Tech anyways. If they can't get Texas, then they leave their options open to grab the next best option in the Texas market, TCU.

Now with Texas Tech and TCU, the new Pac 16 has the best available pipelines into Texas.

By acting brash, Larry Scott could put his conference in position to add four perennial Top 25 caliber football programs and a massive amount of TV sets.

If he sits back while Texas and Dan Beebe work feverishly to save the Big 12 conference, he could be stuck with low quality, filler program from the Mountain West and the WAC as his only option for realignment. Adding teams like Air Force, Boise State, BYU, Hawaii, and Nevada, would certainly make the Pac 16 conference the “Big East” of the super conferences, which wouldn’t be all that “super” for them.

For the sake of the Pac 12's future, Scott needs to be aggressive with his actions.

Somewhere in Lubbock, a secretary answers the phone….

“Excuse me, Mr. Hocutt. I have Chuck Norris on line one.”

Follow me on twitter: @DSportsGuide 

2011 Pac 12 Preview: Analyzing the Odds

The newly expanded Pac 12 is set to debut this season with the additions of Colorado and Utah. The conference is also ready to debut their new bank accounts, which got a little bigger with their near $3 billion dollar TV deal, set to begin in the 2012-2013 season.

They enter this season with only three teams ranked in the AP Poll and one of them is ineligible. This season seems like it will be a two team race between Oregon and Stanford for the Pac 12 title and the winner of their meeting on November 12^th with an inside track to the conference championship game.

Usually, I can find some type of value in dark horse teams to win their divisions. However, with the betting favorites in each division being so close in value and the bottom teams being so far off from a competition stand point, I will not have any divisional value selections in this preview.

***If you place a wager, please wager responsibly. Do NOT place a wager that is outside your financial means. If you can’t afford to lose that amount, then it is outside your means. There have never been and never will be a LOCK on any particular game. Anything can happen inside the lines on any given day, like a 36 point underdog in Stanford beating USC on the road in 2007.

Now that you plan to wager responsibly, let’s take a look at some Vegas odds on the Pac 12 Conference.

North

Projected Winner- Oregon (+110): Oregon returns one of the best backfields in all of college football with QB Darron Thomas and RB LaMichael James. If new comers on the offensive line can quickly gel together, this offense should be every bit as explosive as last year’s team. The real question lies in the Oregon’s defense as they must replace five starters in their front seven.  Oregon’s strength will be in their secondary which features stud DB Cliff Harris.

When you talk about Oregon’s schedule there is really only one game to talk about; their November 12^th meeting at Stanford. They do travel to Arizona early on in Pac 12 play, but Arizona has sustained a lot of injuries on defense this off season that should linger into that game one way or another. Otherwise, the schedule breaks nicely for them as they miss playing Utah and get USC, Arizona State, and Oregon State at home.

I think Oregon will be able to go into Stanford and get a win. “Luck”ily for them, their defensive strength lies in their secondary, which will need to be good to slow down Heisman favorite Andrew Luck. Oregon’s offense was able to put up 52 points on Stanford’s defense last season.Stanford's defense averaged only 14.5PPG against (excluding Oregon) and pitched three shutouts in Pac 10 play. This season their defense certainly won’t be better and, in fact, should be a little less effective when compared to last season.

I think Oregon will be able to win this division, however from a betting standpoint I do not like this wager. At only +110, you essentially are getting very little value to navigate through nine games and come out on top. The reality is, Oregon might not even be favored in their game against Stanford since it is on the road. That means you could get the same value for just one game if you were to bet the Oregon money line. If they are favored, it would only be by a small margin meaning the payout will be very similar. Most likely, that game will decide the North and with that in mind, I’m going to pass on this wager and wait for the November 12^th showdown to place a bet on Oregon.

Why Not

Stanford (+175): With Andrew Luck and his two best offensive linemen returning, this was a hard bet to pass up. The loss of Jim Harbough meant a loss of mental toughness week in and week out, no one has it like that guy. Also, I worried Stanford might be a little bit beat up heading into their showdown with Oregon since two weeks prior they have back to back road games at USC and Oregon State. If there was any value wager in this division, it would be Stanford since the game against Oregon is at home. You would essentially have +175 on them winning, which will probably be better odds than you will get in November.

Oregon State (+800): I think Ryan Katz is going to be a very good quarterback and will make this team competitive. But, their Pac 12 schedule, which features road games at Arizona State, Utah, and Oregon, along with Stanford at home, will probably be too much to overcome to get the amount of wins they’ll need.

Washington (+800): This is a very interesting spoiler type of team going into the 2011 season, but I don’t think their schedule will allow them to get anywhere close to winning this division. It features games at Utah, Stanford, USC, and Oregon State, with Oregon on the schedule as well.

California (+1250): They should have a great defense, but an anemic offense. They also play at Oregon, Stanford, and Washington, so if in some rare case they did over achieve, they still would be at a disadvantage for any tie breakers from a scheduling stand point.

Washington State (+4700): They have an outside shot at making the FCS playoffs.

South

Projected Winner- Utah (+250): Jordan Wynn is entering his third year as the starting QB for the Utes and projects to be a great fit in Norm Chow’s offense. As long as Wynn isn’t ailing from offseason shoulder surgery, I expect him to make significant strides behind an offensive line that returns three outstanding starters. Defensively, Utah’s front seven should be very solid, with the question marks coming from their secondary. The secondary was their weakness last season and it must be improved.

With USC being ineligible, that changes the dynamic of this bet just a little (OK a lot). Utah gets Arizona State at home, which figures to be their toughest competition for the division. If they can take care of business in that game, that could set them up for an easy 8-1 or 7-2 conference record and give them an edge in tie breakers. Oh, one other little advantage Utah has over the Sun Devils and Wildcats is they don’t have Oregon or Stanford on the schedule. It seems like the schedule maker is rooting for the Utes.

Utah is a talented team and their schedule makes them a very favorable bet to win this division, especially with USC ineligible. It’s a little worrisome that this is their first season in a BCS conference, but they played seven or eight BCS caliber teams last season and managed 10 wins. I like this wager a lot and given the value, it’s a great spot for a decent sized bet on Utah.

Arizona State (+195): It was hard for me to pass on Arizona State because, theoretically, they should be good. However, they have had a disruptive offseason, which included a season ending injury to stud LB Brandon Magee. I think Osweiler should be good, but he’s unproven. They have an extremely tough start to the season which includes road games at Utah and Oregon. In the end, I can't trust a Dennis Erickson team to come through for me. Hope I’m not eating those words later.

Arizona (+315): Nick Foles is a great QB, but he has an offensive line in front of him that is as green as they come- zero returning starters. They’ve also sustained a couple of season ending injuries to returning starters on defense. With their grueling Pac 12 schedule that kicks off with Stanford, Oregon, @USC, @Oregon State and ends with a trip to Arizona State, I can’t see Arizona being a legitimate contender this season.

UCLA (+650): Rick Neuheisel still hasn’t named a starting QB for the season, probably because he doesn’t want it to begin. UCLA is not going to threaten for the division with a conference road schedule that features games at Oregon State, Stanford, Arizona, Utah, and Arizona State. It probably wont take long for the Bruins to be looking towards their 2012 season under a new regime.

Colorado (+800): Colorado is not the worst team in this division, but they aren’t going to contend for it either.

USC (N/A): It’s too bad Reggie Bush didn’t get a tattoo instead of a house because the Trojans would probably win the division with ease this season. It’s good news for bettors because USC’s ineligibility opens up the playing field to get value with Utah.

Pac 12 Champion

Oregon (+200)

Stanford (+300)

Arizona State (+550)

Utah (+775)

Arizona (+850)

UCLA (+1800)

Oregon State (+1900)

Washington (+1900)

Colorado (+2300)

California (+2900)

Washington State (+12500)

The first ever Pac 12 conference title game should feature the Oregon against Utah, with Oregon winning with ease. At 2-1 on your money, Oregon is worth a small wager prior to the season to win the Pac 12.

Projected Winner- Oregon (+200)

Value Team- Utah (+775)

Comments and questions are always encouraged.

Follow me on twitter: @DSportsGuide