Conspiracy Theory: Is ESPN controllong conference realignment?

Check out my article posted on The Victory Bells Blog in the Red Raider Sports section on the Y! Rivals platform.

 

ESPN's Role In Conference Realignment

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2011 Big East Preview: Analyzing the Odds

The Big East enters this season with only West Virginia ranked in the AP Poll (#24) and zero teams ranked in the Coaches’ Poll, which is a huge slight nationally towards the conference. Betting wise, there is always value in the Big East since there aren’t any powerhouses and this season the league seems fairly wide open.

Part of the openness of the conference resides in the heavy overturn of coaches. There are three first year head coaches (West Virginia, Pittsburgh, Connecticut), three second year head coaches (Louisville, Cincinnati, and South Florida), one third year head coach (Syracuse) and one entering his 11^th season (Rutgers).

New coaches mean new systems and a lot of overhaul for current teams and with the addition of TCU for the 2012 season, it seems the whole conference is in overhaul. This could provide for some juicy betting opportunities if you can identify which teams are ready to break out and contend for the title. After all, this is a league that sent an 8-4 team to a BCS bowl game just last season.

***If you place a wager, please wager responsibly. Do NOT place a wager that is outside your financial means. If you can’t afford to lose that amount, then it is outside your means. There have never been and never will be a LOCK on any particular game. Anything can happen inside the lines on any given day, like a 36 point underdog in Stanford beating USC on the road in 2007.

Now that you plan to wager responsibly, let’s take a look at some Vegas odds on the Big East conference.

Big East Odds 

Projected Winner- West Virginia (+125): West Virginia is bringing in a new head coach with an electrifying offensive mind in Dana Holgorson from Oklahoma State. It didn’t take long for the offense at Oklahoma State to adapt to Hologorson’s style and it shouldn’t take long for West Virginia either. Holgorson will have a one luxury at West Virginia that he didn’t have at Oklahoma State, a returning starter at QB.

Geno Smith is the perfect trigger man for the high flying offense with his completion percentage of 64.8% and a TD/Int ratio of 24/7 from the 2010 season. Smith's numbers should be even greater this season, thus vaulting him into the Heisman trophy conversation. There’s little doubt this will be the best offense in the Big East.

The defense returns depth in the secondary, but will have to completely revamp the defensive line and linebacker positions in Jeff Casteel’s 3-3-5 defense.  If the defense can be near the top of the conference, it will give the Mountaineers a huge boost in terms of winning the conference.

They start off Big East play at home against Connecticut followed by @Syracuse, @Rutgers, and then home against Louisville. Their schedule is tough down the stretch ending the season with games @Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, and @South Florida. The game at South Florida is on a Thursday night and could possibly be for the conference title. Overall, it is a manageable schedule, but one that presents some tough challenges along the way.

At only +125 odds, it’s hard for this bet to look attractive enough to place any type of large wager on. However, they are BY FAR the most talented team in the conference, so placing a small bet on them would be acceptable.

Value Wager- Rutgers (+2400): Last season was a complete disaster for Rutgers. Schiano tried to install the Wildcat system to get the ball in his play makers hands more often and it never clicked with the offense. For 2011, Rutgers is going back to basics and scrapping the Wildcat. They have a pretty good group of skill position players, which includes stud WR Mohamed Sanu. If their offensive line can improve, they could have a pretty nice offensive unit in general and returning 10 starters always helps. The defense should improve, mostly because it can’t get much worse ,but also because it won’t be on the field as much due to an inept offense like they were last season.

The bases for the real value in this bet is Rutgers has a pretty sweet schedule in Big East play, catching West Virginia, South Florida, Pittsburgh, and Cincinnati (the top four betting favorites) all in Piscataway. I expect the Scarlet Knights to have a redemption season and make some ruckus in the Big East.

They have a lot to overcome, which is why they have the lowest odds, but I see major value in them given their schedule, coaches, and, well, 24-1 on my money. I wouldn’t go crazy with it, but putting a small wager on Rutgers could be more intriguing than most think.

Why Not?
South Florida (+275): They only return 10 starters, which includes QB BJ Daniels who yielded a 11/13 TD-Int ratio last season with only 58.4% accuracy. I'm not sold on Daniels yet and now that he’s been battling a hamstring injury in the preseason it just scares me away further. Skip Holtz is a great coach and they do have a nice schedule, but inconsistent QB play will cost them a game or two they can ill afford to lose.

Pittsburgh (+345): This was an intriguing option for me. They have a lot of talent to work with on defense and I love Todd Graham coming in as the new head coach. I’m concerned about the overhaul that is going to be taking place and it's worrisome that inefficiency on offense could arise. I would rather not put my money on Sunseri being able to make that transition.

Cincinnati (+950): They have the 2nd best QB in the conference in Zach Collaros which I  like And I think they will improve this season and find bowl eligibility with ease. They were really close to being my value pick for this conference, but with their five game stretch of @South Florida, @Pittsburgh, West Virginia, @ Rutgers, and @Syracuse, I just don't see them bringing home the hardware.

Louisville (+1150): I really like where this program is headed under Charlie Strong, but they return a very young team in 2011 and have road games at Cincinnati, West Virginia, and South Florida. I can see them contending in 2012 for the conference title, but not this season.

Syracuse (+1700): They caught people by surprise lat season and I'm not sure I can see them extending their 2010 success much further. They should be about the same team in my estimation, which is a good step for their program but not for me as a gambler.

Connecticut (+2300): Randy Edsall left for Maryland and you could feel the deflation in the UCONN program. It’s hard to tell what Pasqualoni brings to the table, but it seems he’s going to try to keep it the same since he retained numerous assistants. With games @West Virginia, @Pittsburgh, and @Cincinnati, I just can’t see the value in this wager.

Comments, questions, and opinions are always encouraged. 

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Doomsday: A Super Conference Scenario

As discontent and concern with the Texas Longhorn Network’s programming arise, so do the rumblings of a doomsday scenario for the Big 12.

The Big 12 soap opera, starring the Texas Longhorns, continues to build towards the finale of Season 2: Conference Instability. 

And no, the Longhorns do not intend to air this on their network.

Disgruntled Texas A&M isn’t showing their cards and it is unsure if their threats of bolting for the SEC are legit or if they are playing the part of a grounded child threatening to run away.

Lets pretend the Aggies do run away from home and this allows Texas to go independent. Where would the rest of the Big 12 realign and would this trigger riot like robbery of other BCS conferences to create “Super Conferences?”

In the end, I came up with a preamble to a true Super Conference scenario.Lets take a look.
 

SEC (14)	BIG 10 (16)	Big East (12)	PAC 12 (12)	ACC  (12)
Florida	Iowa	Pittsburgh	California	Boston College
Georgia	Michigan	West Virginia	Oregon	UNC
Kentucky	Michigan State	Rutgers	Oregon State	NC State
South Carolina	Minnesota	Cincinnati	Stanford	Virginia
Tennessee	Nebraska	Syracuse	Washington	Virginia Tech
Vanderbilt	Northwestern	UCONN	Wash State	Wake Forest
Missouri	Purdue
	Wisconsin
Alabama	Illinois	Louisville	Arizona	Duke
Arkansas	Indiana	SFU	Arizona State	Clemson
Auburn	Ohio State	TCU	Colorado	Florida State
LSU	Penn State	Kansas	UCLA	Maryland
Miss State	Oklahoma	Kansas State	USC	Georgia Tech
Ole Miss	Oklahoma St	UCF	Utah	Miami
A&M	Texas Tech
	Baylor

Naturally, Texas A&M makes the first move and jumps ship to the SEC. This is a good move for the SEC, who can now claim a share in the Dallas and Houston TV Markets.

Not only are they getting TV ratings, but they would be adding one of the top football programs in the nation. Texas A&M has one of the largest stadiums in College Football (approx. 83,000), top notch facilities, and a plethora of tradition and pride in their program. They even claim to be the “Alabama of the West.”

Next the SEC would try to court the Oklahoma Sooners and add another national powerhouse to the conference. This could become a very sticky situation because the SEC is stuck in their current TV deal.

OU comes paired with Oklahoma State. I do not see a financial advantage for the SEC by adding Oklahoma State and having to split their pie even further. 

If Oklahoma State comes, then the conference would almost have to add a 4^th team to make divisions even for competition purposes. Basically, Oklahoma equals three pieces of the pie and I think the value of the current conference makeup outweighs adding Oklahoma and two friends.

In this situation, the SEC should look to add one more team. I think they would turn their focus to Florida State and pursue them vigorously, only to be spurned by the Seminoles. 

So what now?

Missouri was ready to bolt from the Big 12 conference last summer and was pining for an invite from the B1G  (that’s Big Ten and yes spellcheck , B1G is a word). 

For reason’s unknown, the invite never came and Missouri’s desire to escape from the Big 12 was duly noted by many around the country.  If the Big 10 didn’t want Mizzou, why would the SEC? 

On top of being a quality football program, Missouri offers the SEC potential to tap into the Midwest TV market and they are also the best available fit to even out the divisions in the SEC. 

I think Missouri is expecting a Big 10 invitation in a few years when the conferences TV deal with ABC/ESPN is up in 2016. However, if the SEC were to send them an invitation, even in the form of a tweet, I think Mizzou would accept without hesitation.

Now that Oklahoma has spurned the SEC, this becomes a great opportunity for the Big 10. Jim Delany has to be looking at the Pac 12’s new TV deal, less than a year after expansion, and wondering what the Big 10 could get in 2016 if they expanded.

If the Big 12 begins to crack, I would not be shocked to see Jim Delany make an aggressive move towards expanding the conference with Oklahoma as the centerpiece and Oklahoma State. 

I believe the “Big 12 South” group would stick together and the Big 10 would take Texas Tech and Baylor, with the consolation that at least they are tapping into the Texas recruiting pipeline and TV markets. If the Big 10 wants to expand South, they almost certainly would have to stomach adding Baylor even though they would probably prefer TCU.

Now equipped with Nebraska, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, and Baylor, they will be salivating to start negotiations in 2016. 

Rumor has it they will finally change their name from the Big Ten Conference to the Big Ten National Bank once the deal is finalized. No word yet on the new logo. 

I think the Big East is a considered a candidate for invasion due to the national perception of an overall lack of elite competition in the conference. Take the 2011 coaches poll as an example - ZERO Big East teams ranked in the Top 25.

However, I think the invasion of the Big East would come in “Phase 2” of Super Conference alignment when four conferences of 16 are created. For now, they will be in a great position to pick up some pieces to strengthen the overall quality of the conference.

The Big East made a very quiet and opportunistic move last summer by adding TCU to the conference beginning in 2012. They add a pipeline in the Texas market, as well as a program that finished ranked 7^th, 6^th, and 2^nd in the final AP Poll from 2008-2010.  A great football move for the conference.

Next, the Big East can recruit some Big 12 leftovers, Kansas and Kansas State. Kansas had some recent success with a BCS Bowl victory in 2007 and Kansas State was wildly successful under Bill Snyder in earlier years, so there is some level of respect that comes with these programs.

The Big East is widely considered the best brand of College Basketball and bringing in Kansas and Kansas State certainly will help their cause in that aspect (especially Kansas).

The last addition was between a handful of C-USA teams and in the end I chose Central Florida. They are a natural fit for the conference and their recent bowl win our Georgia also gives them credibility on the field.

Adding these teams and remaining opportunistic increases the conferences stability and certainly helps them increase their revenue for their upcoming TV deal in 2013.

 

At this point, I couldn’t see the PAC 12 making a move to add four more teams to the conference. Yes, they made a huge push last summer to add teams, but they also had negotiations of a new TV deal on the horizon.

Now that they have secured a monster deal and each conference member will be paid handsomely. It’s hard to imagine them wanting to share that revenue further, especially when it seems they are ahead of the curve for now.

I went back and forth on where the Big 12 South teams would fall. At this point, I did not feel it made financial sense for the PAC 12 to add four more teams. It was hard to dismiss them as a landing spot since Larry Scott has the reputation of someone who will look at every angle and opportunity. 

One angle I came across with the PAC 12 was, IF the College Football landscape did shift to four super conferences, where would they find four quality teams like the Big 12 South? Geographically and traditionally, there are few teams that would make sense for the conference that would be left over (assuming BYU and Texas remain independent).

I could see Larry Scott making the move to protect the conference’s future in a super conference scenario, but in the end I couldn’t pull the trigger.

The only scenario I could see playing out where the ACC added teams was if the Big East dissolved. Since this did not happen, no teams were added.

I did tinker with a scenario where the SEC was able to steal Florida State and Miami away from the conference, but the more I researched I felt this was very unlikely for the time being.

I think the next step in this situation would happen if the SEC poaches teams from the ACC like Florida State, Miami, Georgia Tech, Clemson, or Virgina Tech. If that were to happen, then I think the Big East would get raided.



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