Could the LHN actually hurtTexas' recruiting efforts in the ACC?

Money talks, but it don’t pass and catch and it don’t block. As long as I can have my Be-vo TV, I’d much rather be in the A-C-C….

I’m almost positive when Neil Diamond wrote the hit song “Forever in Blue Jeans,” the last thing he imagined was a Longhorn Network Parody.

I can’t say I’m surprised though, since the Longhorn Network seems to spawn the unexpected among college football normalcy and life in general.

The Longhorn Network has turned Texas and the Big 12 into a leprosy colony since last summer. Nebraska, Colorado, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State couldn’t wait to get the hell away from both entities by jumping off the island mirage of conference paradise into open waters for whichever passing boat would have them (Big 10, Pac 12, SEC).

Now, because of the LHN, Texas might be sent off to the only conference that will save their soul- the ACC. I’m sure that’s hardly the euphoric vision the university had when finalizing their deal with ESPN.

West of the Mississippi river, the ACC isn't held in high regard when it comes to football. ACC football games are thought of as the boring games on TV before the good ones kickoff to the average fan. Of course, as a college football enthusiast I disagree, but will highly touted recruits share my sentiments?

The quality of the SEC rings loud in the state of Texas and the Aggies are a sleeping giant who might have found their alarm clock. Texas A&M may never reach the excellence of Texas, but if the Longhorns head to the ACC they weaken their recruiting  stature in the Lone Star state.

Don’t get me wrong, I am NOT saying Texas' recruiting rankings are going to plunge or become inferior to the Aggies. However, a door will open for A&M to steal some recruits from Texas they wouldn't normally have a chance to get because the SEC is a far superior football conference compared to the ACC.

This is going to be a problem for Texas regardless of where they end up, but here is my point illustrated in mathematical nomenclature:  

SEC > PAC 16 > Big 10 > Independent > LHN Conference (Big 12 leftovers) > ACC 

Out of all the options Texas can offer recruits regarding the quality of conference play, the ACC is the least appealing. That’s a huge disadvantage if you’re trying to persuade wavering recruits to come to Texas over A&M.

What happens when recruits like Malcolm Brown, Jaxon Shipley, or Quandre Diggs would rather play in the Pac 16 or SEC? Suddenly College Station and Norman do not seem like such bad places to be, rather than Austin+ACC. By going to the ACC, Texas would be self-inflicting wounds to the recruiting monster they’ve created in Austin.

If Texas has a drop off of the embarrassing riches of talent they are used to, then the play on the field could be inconsistent year in and year out. Instead of reloading players, you have to replace the great ones and losing stud recruits here and there does not help your cause. Being a national power house does not come from coaching, it comes from recruiting.

Is the LHN worth the possibility of making Texas a less attractive option for recruits, thus hindering the performance on the field?

In the Big 12, the furthest Texas would ever have to travel for a conference road game is to Iowa State. If they go solo to the ACC, the closest possible conference road game ( at Florida State) is the same distance as their trip to Ames, IA. That's a lot of extra traveling that adds up over the course of a season and that can't be good for a football team needing to win key games at the end of the season. Fans won't like it either.

Regardless where the Longhorns end up, their traveling hours are going to increase. However, at least in the PAC 16 format they would still have road games against familiar foes (Texas Tech and Oklahoma State) within a 7 hour drive or cheap 60-90 minute flights. Florida State is around a 14 hour drive and the flights are 2-3 times as expensive. How is that going affect recruits whose parents want to travel to see their kids play? 

Side Note: I assume the game against Red River Rivalry against Oklahoma will continue regardless of where Texas ends up. If for some reason an ACC departure for Texas results in this games loss, then this becomes an ever bigger issue in this whole mess.

Financially, this would be the best move for Texas assuming the ACC is the only conference that lets them keep their network. However, keeping the money associated with the LHN does not help the Longhorns increase the branding power they were hoping to get out of their TV channel with the ACC attached to it.

Having an abundance of money for your university is great, but it doesn’t necessarily help you win football games. When was the last time you saw Harvard win a national championship?

It's amazing  how a program with the history and bravado of Texas can be so unwanted because of a network that is only a few months old. It seems years of exerting their power and riches has finally caught up with the leprosy Longhorns. Hopefully, for their sake, the money grab maneuver to the ACC won't stifle their recruiting efforts or play on the field.

Forget about the money though. Texas' pride is on the line here and they aren't going to let a bunch of pipsqueaks ruin their network, even if it means setting up shop in the ACC.

When it comes to the Longhorn Network,  for Texas, the ACC never seemed so good (so good, so good).

The not so Big 12

The Big 12 conference has turned into an enthralling game of Jenga. One risky maneuver after another has this conference teetering on the edge of collapsing, yet somehow it is still standing.

Big 12 officials, minus Texas A&M, exclaim via various media outlets that they have been working feverishly to keep the conference together and ensure solidarity if it remains intact.

What’s the point?

Either this is Déjà vu or we have all already witnessed the Big 12 telling us they’ve  become blood brothers for life. Texas A&M and Missouri have both made it perfectly clear they want out of the Big 12 and fans are supposed to believe that a hug and some kum ba yah are going to fix things?  

Did you forget that a certain portion of your fan base graduated from your institution? Expecting them to believe your statement of “solidarity” (for the second time) is basically saying the education they received from your institution was not of a high enough quality where they can decipher the true state of the conference. Maybe they should be refunded? 

Money is the only reason this conference is being propped up at the moment and portrayed as if everything will be fine, just like old times. Money is the reason that this conference will eventually fold. Money is evil.

Texas does NOT want the conference to fold either. They are adamant they do not want to go independent and the PAC 12, Big 10, and SEC would never allow them in with their network. Texas found a way to make money grow on trees and they will never give that up for any conference.

And why should they? They have one of the largest and most loyal fan bases in the country. They have a great opportunity to bring them more coverage of Texas athletics then they could have ever imagined- for a small fee of course. 

A normal game against Rice, Texas fans fill up the stadium in its entirety even though they know it’s going to be a completely lopsided beat down. Ask Kirby Hocutt if he thinks Texas Tech fans will do the same for their opener against Texas State. They won’t, he’s not that lucky. 

Texas is lucky though and they have a fan base that will attend or watch every game regardless of their opponent. Now the university seeks to exploit their fans pockets even further by trying to get them to fork over their hard earned cash and subscribe to their network to watch a tune up game against Rice or, more importantly, a Big 12 conference game? Its one thing if they are providing extra coverage above and beyond the games, but the games themselves!? CMON.

What’s the next step for the Corporation of Texas to maximize profit on their assets? Are they going to put Bevo out to stud?

I can’t and won’t fault Texas for their ambition, but the greed and self-righteous power trip they are on, trying to impose their will on their conference “partners,” will be the root of conference’s demise. They've already scared off a fantastic football program in Nebraska and now they are pushing one of their biggest rivals out the door in A&M.

When the Big 12 crumbles, that $300 million practically guarantees Texas becomes a conference-less independent football program. By their actions, it seems that is something that Texas wants.

From a competitive stand point, I will never understand the appeal to be an independent entity. It's like you're a satellite in orbit in the College Football universe. What exactly are you playing for? Sure you have opponents to play against on the field in a singular game, but what teams are you competing against? It’s not like you can win your conference because you’re not in one and you're playing against the polls.

Now that game against Oklahoma every year is now just another game on the schedule instead of one with massive conference and national title implications. It would be unforgivable if that game lost any of its shine.

Don’t let A&M fool you into thinking their departure is strictly because of Texas and their evil ways, because it’s not. The TLN is just a convenient excuse for the Aggies to get out of the shadow of Texas and go try to make more money for their program. Their opportunity is being piggy backed on the issue of the TLN airing high school games and Texas A&M’s supposed angst towards the recruiting advantages doing so would provide for Texas.

Even though Texas has been banned from airing high school games on their network, A&M is still pressing on, upset, and headed towards the SEC.

The Texas A&M situation reminds me of Mike Leach and Texas Tech. It was well documented that the Tech brass, feeling slighted and outsmarted, was looking for any excuse to use to get out of their brand new contract with Coach Leach (which was well documented). When the slightest opportunity arose, they pounced on it and acted hastily before due process could play out, thus achieving their hidden agenda and never looking back. Does the TLN’s consideration of airing high school games not look like A&M’s proverbial electrical closet? It does to me.

If Texas is Zack Morris and Oklahoma is AC Slater, A&M has been the Screech of the conference. Always aspiring to live up to the successes of Zack and Slater, usually falling short, but once managed to steal a kiss from Kelly Kapowski. It’s no wonder A&M’s inferiority complex is causing them to seek a transfer to Valley High (sorry if you are not familiar with Saved By the Bell).

While ultimately it seems A&M’s desire to move to the SEC is a calculated business move, it’s also very apparent that their hatred for Texas has moved past the point of continuing the 117 year old football rivalry and it's tradition.

Don’t let the SEC fool you either as they lean back in their chair with their hands in the air saying, “Hey they came to us, man.” They started this process last year, when Mike Slive flew into College Station amidst the “Pac 16” hoopla to try to persuade A&M to head East. He wasn’t trying to be a hospitable neighbor to the Aggies either, but rather expand the brand and money for his football conference.

With the addition of Texas A&M, who is a Top 15 football program, the SEC gets some HUGE TV markets and a pipeline into Texas football recruiting. The monetary advantage for the SEC is huge and you can bet next month’s rent that the 14^th team added will increase SEC monies as well. New TV markets are why you will hear Virginia Tech, North Carolina, and Missouri rumored to be in the expansion mix.

This is the new landscape of College Football. Forget about history, tradition, and rivalries. Get familiar with Super Conferences, ESPN, and marketability.

Dan Beebe DeLoss Dodds isn’t trying to save the Big 12 conference to protect your fandom. He’s trying to protect the Billions of dollars tied into its existence. I’m sure he and Bill Byrne are a little bit upset the classic rivalry will fade over the next few years, but they had better things to do around Thanksgiving every year anyways.

I am all for college football programs and conferences trying to maximize their earning potential as long as they can do it without messing up the brand.

Do you want to see the Texas Longhorns in Blue uniforms? I don’t either, but the way things are going in college football anything is a possibility as long as it helps the bottom line.

I doubt the BI9 12 will be around for much longer and that is a damn shame.

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Doomsday: A Super Conference Scenario

As discontent and concern with the Texas Longhorn Network’s programming arise, so do the rumblings of a doomsday scenario for the Big 12.

The Big 12 soap opera, starring the Texas Longhorns, continues to build towards the finale of Season 2: Conference Instability. 

And no, the Longhorns do not intend to air this on their network.

Disgruntled Texas A&M isn’t showing their cards and it is unsure if their threats of bolting for the SEC are legit or if they are playing the part of a grounded child threatening to run away.

Lets pretend the Aggies do run away from home and this allows Texas to go independent. Where would the rest of the Big 12 realign and would this trigger riot like robbery of other BCS conferences to create “Super Conferences?”

In the end, I came up with a preamble to a true Super Conference scenario.Lets take a look.
 

SEC (14)	BIG 10 (16)	Big East (12)	PAC 12 (12)	ACC  (12)
Florida	Iowa	Pittsburgh	California	Boston College
Georgia	Michigan	West Virginia	Oregon	UNC
Kentucky	Michigan State	Rutgers	Oregon State	NC State
South Carolina	Minnesota	Cincinnati	Stanford	Virginia
Tennessee	Nebraska	Syracuse	Washington	Virginia Tech
Vanderbilt	Northwestern	UCONN	Wash State	Wake Forest
Missouri	Purdue
	Wisconsin
Alabama	Illinois	Louisville	Arizona	Duke
Arkansas	Indiana	SFU	Arizona State	Clemson
Auburn	Ohio State	TCU	Colorado	Florida State
LSU	Penn State	Kansas	UCLA	Maryland
Miss State	Oklahoma	Kansas State	USC	Georgia Tech
Ole Miss	Oklahoma St	UCF	Utah	Miami
A&M	Texas Tech
	Baylor

Naturally, Texas A&M makes the first move and jumps ship to the SEC. This is a good move for the SEC, who can now claim a share in the Dallas and Houston TV Markets.

Not only are they getting TV ratings, but they would be adding one of the top football programs in the nation. Texas A&M has one of the largest stadiums in College Football (approx. 83,000), top notch facilities, and a plethora of tradition and pride in their program. They even claim to be the “Alabama of the West.”

Next the SEC would try to court the Oklahoma Sooners and add another national powerhouse to the conference. This could become a very sticky situation because the SEC is stuck in their current TV deal.

OU comes paired with Oklahoma State. I do not see a financial advantage for the SEC by adding Oklahoma State and having to split their pie even further. 

If Oklahoma State comes, then the conference would almost have to add a 4^th team to make divisions even for competition purposes. Basically, Oklahoma equals three pieces of the pie and I think the value of the current conference makeup outweighs adding Oklahoma and two friends.

In this situation, the SEC should look to add one more team. I think they would turn their focus to Florida State and pursue them vigorously, only to be spurned by the Seminoles. 

So what now?

Missouri was ready to bolt from the Big 12 conference last summer and was pining for an invite from the B1G  (that’s Big Ten and yes spellcheck , B1G is a word). 

For reason’s unknown, the invite never came and Missouri’s desire to escape from the Big 12 was duly noted by many around the country.  If the Big 10 didn’t want Mizzou, why would the SEC? 

On top of being a quality football program, Missouri offers the SEC potential to tap into the Midwest TV market and they are also the best available fit to even out the divisions in the SEC. 

I think Missouri is expecting a Big 10 invitation in a few years when the conferences TV deal with ABC/ESPN is up in 2016. However, if the SEC were to send them an invitation, even in the form of a tweet, I think Mizzou would accept without hesitation.

Now that Oklahoma has spurned the SEC, this becomes a great opportunity for the Big 10. Jim Delany has to be looking at the Pac 12’s new TV deal, less than a year after expansion, and wondering what the Big 10 could get in 2016 if they expanded.

If the Big 12 begins to crack, I would not be shocked to see Jim Delany make an aggressive move towards expanding the conference with Oklahoma as the centerpiece and Oklahoma State. 

I believe the “Big 12 South” group would stick together and the Big 10 would take Texas Tech and Baylor, with the consolation that at least they are tapping into the Texas recruiting pipeline and TV markets. If the Big 10 wants to expand South, they almost certainly would have to stomach adding Baylor even though they would probably prefer TCU.

Now equipped with Nebraska, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, and Baylor, they will be salivating to start negotiations in 2016. 

Rumor has it they will finally change their name from the Big Ten Conference to the Big Ten National Bank once the deal is finalized. No word yet on the new logo. 

I think the Big East is a considered a candidate for invasion due to the national perception of an overall lack of elite competition in the conference. Take the 2011 coaches poll as an example - ZERO Big East teams ranked in the Top 25.

However, I think the invasion of the Big East would come in “Phase 2” of Super Conference alignment when four conferences of 16 are created. For now, they will be in a great position to pick up some pieces to strengthen the overall quality of the conference.

The Big East made a very quiet and opportunistic move last summer by adding TCU to the conference beginning in 2012. They add a pipeline in the Texas market, as well as a program that finished ranked 7^th, 6^th, and 2^nd in the final AP Poll from 2008-2010.  A great football move for the conference.

Next, the Big East can recruit some Big 12 leftovers, Kansas and Kansas State. Kansas had some recent success with a BCS Bowl victory in 2007 and Kansas State was wildly successful under Bill Snyder in earlier years, so there is some level of respect that comes with these programs.

The Big East is widely considered the best brand of College Basketball and bringing in Kansas and Kansas State certainly will help their cause in that aspect (especially Kansas).

The last addition was between a handful of C-USA teams and in the end I chose Central Florida. They are a natural fit for the conference and their recent bowl win our Georgia also gives them credibility on the field.

Adding these teams and remaining opportunistic increases the conferences stability and certainly helps them increase their revenue for their upcoming TV deal in 2013.

 

At this point, I couldn’t see the PAC 12 making a move to add four more teams to the conference. Yes, they made a huge push last summer to add teams, but they also had negotiations of a new TV deal on the horizon.

Now that they have secured a monster deal and each conference member will be paid handsomely. It’s hard to imagine them wanting to share that revenue further, especially when it seems they are ahead of the curve for now.

I went back and forth on where the Big 12 South teams would fall. At this point, I did not feel it made financial sense for the PAC 12 to add four more teams. It was hard to dismiss them as a landing spot since Larry Scott has the reputation of someone who will look at every angle and opportunity. 

One angle I came across with the PAC 12 was, IF the College Football landscape did shift to four super conferences, where would they find four quality teams like the Big 12 South? Geographically and traditionally, there are few teams that would make sense for the conference that would be left over (assuming BYU and Texas remain independent).

I could see Larry Scott making the move to protect the conference’s future in a super conference scenario, but in the end I couldn’t pull the trigger.

The only scenario I could see playing out where the ACC added teams was if the Big East dissolved. Since this did not happen, no teams were added.

I did tinker with a scenario where the SEC was able to steal Florida State and Miami away from the conference, but the more I researched I felt this was very unlikely for the time being.

I think the next step in this situation would happen if the SEC poaches teams from the ACC like Florida State, Miami, Georgia Tech, Clemson, or Virgina Tech. If that were to happen, then I think the Big East would get raided.



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