Part of the openness of the conference resides in the heavy overturn of coaches. There are three first year head coaches (West Virginia, Pittsburgh, Connecticut), three second year head coaches (Louisville, Cincinnati, and South Florida), one third year head coach (Syracuse) and one entering his 11th season (Rutgers).
New coaches mean new systems and a lot of overhaul for current teams and with the addition of TCU for the 2012 season, it seems the whole conference is in overhaul. This could provide for some juicy betting opportunities if you can identify which teams are ready to break out and contend for the title. After all, this is a league that sent an 8-4 team to a BCS bowl game just last season.
***If you place a wager, please wager responsibly. Do NOT place a wager that is outside your financial means. If you can’t afford to lose that amount, then it is outside your means. There have never been and never will be a LOCK on any particular game. Anything can happen inside the lines on any given day, like a 36 point underdog in Stanford beating USC on the road in 2007.
Now that you plan to wager responsibly, let’s take a look at some Vegas odds on the Big East conference.
Big East Odds
Projected Winner- West Virginia (+125): West Virginia is bringing in a new head coach with an electrifying offensive mind in Dana Holgorson from Oklahoma State. It didn’t take long for the offense at Oklahoma State to adapt to Hologorson’s style and it shouldn’t take long for West Virginia either. Holgorson will have a one luxury at West Virginia that he didn’t have at Oklahoma State, a returning starter at QB.
Geno Smith is the perfect trigger man for the high flying offense with his completion percentage of 64.8% and a TD/Int ratio of 24/7 from the 2010 season. Smith's numbers should be even greater this season, thus vaulting him into the Heisman trophy conversation. There’s little doubt this will be the best offense in the Big East.
The defense returns depth in the secondary, but will have to completely revamp the defensive line and linebacker positions in Jeff Casteel’s 3-3-5 defense. If the defense can be near the top of the conference, it will give the Mountaineers a huge boost in terms of winning the conference.
They start off Big East play at home against Connecticut followed by @Syracuse, @Rutgers, and then home against Louisville. Their schedule is tough down the stretch ending the season with games @Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, and @South Florida. The game at South Florida is on a Thursday night and could possibly be for the conference title. Overall, it is a manageable schedule, but one that presents some tough challenges along the way.
At only +125 odds, it’s hard for this bet to look attractive enough to place any type of large wager on. However, they are BY FAR the most talented team in the conference, so placing a small bet on them would be acceptable.
Value Wager- Rutgers (+2400): Last season was a complete disaster for Rutgers. Schiano tried to install the Wildcat system to get the ball in his play makers hands more often and it never clicked with the offense. For 2011, Rutgers is going back to basics and scrapping the Wildcat. They have a pretty good group of skill position players, which includes stud WR Mohamed Sanu. If their offensive line can improve, they could have a pretty nice offensive unit in general and returning 10 starters always helps. The defense should improve, mostly because it can’t get much worse ,but also because it won’t be on the field as much due to an inept offense like they were last season.
The bases for the real value in this bet is Rutgers has a pretty sweet schedule in Big East play, catching West Virginia, South Florida, Pittsburgh, and Cincinnati (the top four betting favorites) all in Piscataway. I expect the Scarlet Knights to have a redemption season and make some ruckus in the Big East.
They have a lot to overcome, which is why they have the lowest odds, but I see major value in them given their schedule, coaches, and, well, 24-1 on my money. I wouldn’t go crazy with it, but putting a small wager on Rutgers could be more intriguing than most think.
Why Not?
South Florida (+275): They only return 10 starters, which includes QB BJ Daniels who yielded a 11/13 TD-Int ratio last season with only 58.4% accuracy. I'm not sold on Daniels yet and now that he’s been battling a hamstring injury in the preseason it just scares me away further. Skip Holtz is a great coach and they do have a nice schedule, but inconsistent QB play will cost them a game or two they can ill afford to lose.
Pittsburgh (+345): This was an intriguing option for me. They have a lot of talent to work with on defense and I love Todd Graham coming in as the new head coach. I’m concerned about the overhaul that is going to be taking place and it's worrisome that inefficiency on offense could arise. I would rather not put my money on Sunseri being able to make that transition.
Cincinnati (+950): They have the 2nd best QB in the conference in Zach Collaros which I like And I think they will improve this season and find bowl eligibility with ease. They were really close to being my value pick for this conference, but with their five game stretch of @South Florida, @Pittsburgh, West Virginia, @ Rutgers, and @Syracuse, I just don't see them bringing home the hardware.
Louisville (+1150): I really like where this program is headed under Charlie Strong, but they return a very young team in 2011 and have road games at Cincinnati, West Virginia, and South Florida. I can see them contending in 2012 for the conference title, but not this season.
Syracuse (+1700): They caught people by surprise lat season and I'm not sure I can see them extending their 2010 success much further. They should be about the same team in my estimation, which is a good step for their program but not for me as a gambler.
Connecticut (+2300): Randy Edsall left for Maryland and you could feel the deflation in the UCONN program. It’s hard to tell what Pasqualoni brings to the table, but it seems he’s going to try to keep it the same since he retained numerous assistants. With games @West Virginia, @Pittsburgh, and @Cincinnati, I just can’t see the value in this wager.
Comments, questions, and opinions are always encouraged.
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