This is the time of year I love gearing up for College Football by analyzing the perspective of the Vegas odds makers. After an off season full of researching, I like comparing my projections to those in Vegas to see how they align.
I enjoy analyzing betting odds on College Football, especially futures. A “future bet” is when a bettor places a wager where the results of the bet are not determined until a later date. For example, today, if you placed a $100 wager on Alabama (+500) to win the BCS Championship game, you are betting on the odds of that happening in the future.
In betting odds plus(+) odds are how much you would win if you bet $100. Basically, at (+500), if you bet $100 you win $500. If the odds are minus(-) odds that is the amount of money you would have to bet to win $100. Basically, at (-200), you have to bet $200 to win $100.
It’s a very simplistic and engaging concept for the average College Football fan, who is not looking to make a living betting on the weekends, to enjoy various games even further.
With the season just weeks away, I’m going to break down various College Football futures in regards to conference odds, win totals, and BCS Championship wagers.
***If you place a wager, please wager responsibly. Do NOT place a wager that is outside your financial means. If you can’t afford to lose that amount, then it is outside your means. There have never been and never will be a LOCK on any particular game. Anything can happen inside the lines on any given day, like a 36 point underdog in Stanford beating USC on the road in 2007.
Now that you plan to wager responsibly, let’s take a look at some Vegas odds on the ACC Conference.
Atlantic Division Odds
Projected Winner- Florida State (-200): FSU is the overwhelming favorite with good reason. The program is coming off a 10 win season and they return 16 starters (7 off and 9 def) from last season, including one of the nation’s best defenses.
Their biggest question mark will be breaking in a new starter at Quarterback. EJ Manuel is not your typical “green behind the ears” first year starter as he does have some valuable big game experience- a huge plus. If FSU can replace some reliable starters on the offensive line, then the table should be set for Manuel to have success. Florida State needs him healthy because they are very young and inexperienced down the depth chart.
Overall, the Seminoles have a very favorable schedule in ACC play but they do encounter a few worrisome trap games.
The main concern on the schedule is opening their ACC play with a trip to Clemson the week after their nationally hyped game against Oklahoma- perfect spot for a letdown. Win or lose against OU, they could experience some type of complacent satisfaction or disappointing hangover effect going into Death Valley, one of the toughest places to play in the country.
The other concern is a bit nitpicky, but is the exact type of situation where a team can lose its focus. After playing divisional games against Maryland and NC State, they must turn around in a short week and travel to Boston College for a Thursday night showdown. This is the classic look ahead game with the rival Hurricanes coming into town the next week. It is probably not something to worry about, but it did catch my eye.
With an extremely manageable schedule and a stout defense returning, FSU looks poised to take the Atlantic Division with ease.
Betting wise having to lay those odds is never an attractive bet, especially for a team inheriting a new QB (even though EJ Manuel looks promising). I'd pass because of the Odds, but FSU should win this division.
Value Team -North Carolina State (+1150): Tom O’Brien made a VERY bold move by allowing Russell Wilson to seek a transfer and naming Mike Glennon the starter earlier in the year. He also made a bold statement in comparing Glennon to his former Boston College quarterback, Matt Ryan. I can’t fathom a coach letting a player of Wilson’s caliber walk out the door regardless of the underlying situation. THAT should speak volumes about Glennon’s capabilities and what we can expect from the highly touted recruit.
The Wolfpack return 16 starters from a 2010 team that went 9-4, including a 23-7 Champ Sports Bowl beat down of West Virginia. If Glennon even comes close to living up to the “Ryanesque” hype that O’Brien has placed on him, then the veteran Wolf Pack squad could contend for the division.
They have a very manageable schedule that includes getting Clemson, Maryland, UNC, and Georgia Tech at home, while traveling to Wake Forest, Virginia, an Boston College in ACC play. They almost have the perfect balance of playing their best competition at home and the lesser teams on the road. Almost…
The only clear road block in their schedule is their game at FSU in late October, which, honestly, is a game I could see deciding the Atlantic Division. The Wolfpack were able to beat Florida State at home last year, granted it was on the shoulders of the recently departed Russell Wilson. If they can somehow sneak into Tallahassee and get an upset, their schedule sets up nicely the rest of the way.
Beating FSU on the road seems like a daunting task this season, but as I always say anything can happen on the field. Given the odds, I think NC State is worth a small wager. This is my dark horse for the division.
Why Not?
Maryland (+630): This was almost my dark horse pick but they play @FSU and @NC State, which gives them a huge disadvantage comparatively speaking. Also, a young QB with a new coach and new system could bring growing pains.
Clemson (+680): They are bringing in a completely new system on offense for a young sophomore QB to learn, which scares me, and they have a tough schedule. After a non-conference game with Auburn, they get Florida State at home and then turn around the next week at travel to Virginia Tech – a very tough back to back. They also travel to Maryland, Georgia Tech, and NC State. Overall, it’s a very difficult conference schedule.
Boston College (+1050): Once October hits they have one of the toughest overall schedules I’ve seen so far. They have three consecutive road games at Clemson, Virginia Tech, and Maryland, only to return home the next two weeks to face Florida State and North Carolina State. They then have a tough non-conference game @Notre Dame and finish off the season @Miami. They might be primed for an upset or two, but not winning the division.
Wake Forest (+8500): Do I really have to detail why this is a bad bet or can I just point out the fact that you would be wasting some perfectly good beer money?
Coastal Division Odds
Projected Winner-Virginia Tech (-130): In 2010, Virginia Tech began their season with a crushing loss to Boise State and an all-time epic hangover loss to James Madison which left many doubting the Hokies. They managed to regroup and win their next ten games, crushing their ACC opponents along the way to a BCS bowl.
This year the defending ACC champs return four senior starters on one of the best offensive lines in the nation. This is good news for redshirt Sophomore QB Logan Thomas, who has big shoes to fill replacing Tyrod Taylor. All indications are he is ready for the job. Thomas should have plenty of weapons to utilize down the field as the Hokies return all their wide receivers from the previous season.
Their defense should be strong as usual (especially in the front seven), although they are a little young in the secondary. Bud Foster is an incredible coordinator who you can always count on coaching his defenses into a menacing force.
Their schedule is amazing! Their toughest games are at home (Clemson, Miami, UNC, BC) and games against the lower echelon of the ACC (Wake Forest, Duke, Georgia Tech, and Virginia) are on the road. The only road game where I see a potential trip up for the Hokies is their Thursday night meeting at Georgia Tech, but they will be coming off a bye from the previous week, so they should be rested and focused.
A team this talented in the trenches with a perfect situational schedule should be a heavier favorite to win this division. I would eat a little juice here and place a nice sized wager on Virginia Tech to win the division.
Value Team- Georgia Tech (+2400): Paul Johnson has a great program in place at Georgia Tech and players waiting in the wings to step up in his triple option offense. If his offense can cut down on their turnovers from last season, especially fumbles, they should be a lot more effective than they were last season.
Defensively, this team has the ability to vastly improve in their 2ndseason under Al Groh. Their front seven has received good reviews this off season which will hopefully help offset the question marks in the secondary.
Their schedule is shaping up to be manageable, especially with turmoil at Miami and UNC. They manage to avoid Florida State and catch UNC, Maryland, Clemson, and Virginia Tech at home. Their road games are at NC State, Virginia, Miami, and Duke. With Miami looking questionable and weakened at this point (although no suspensions have been handed out), it definitely helps their road schedule seem a little bit easier.
The odds for Georgia Tech are high for a reason, but there is certain value with this team. I really believe this is Virginia Tech’s division to take, but I could see myself placing a small wager on this given the schedule and coaching staff.
Why Not?
Miami (+275): Let’s pretend that this program isn’t about to go up in flames with NCAA sanctions and I had to analyze this team as if everything was normal. I am not a believer in either of their QB’s being able to win games for the Hurricanes. Also, they now have to operate behind a line without stud tackle Seantrel Henderson, who may miss the entire season, and they lack any proven commodities at the skill positions. Their schedule doesn’t do them any favors either with road games at Maryland, Virginia Tech, UNC, and Florida State.
North Carolina (+360): Do I really need to list a reason not to like a team who fired their head coach two weeks before camp starts? Their defensive line should be one of the best in the nation and new QB, Bryn Renner, comes highly touted. They have enough talent to create a ruckus, but the odds are too low for my taste given the coaching situation.
Virginia (+2700): They might have an upset here and there, but not enough talent to pull off the division. Their tough schedule in ACC play, featuring games at UNC, Miami, Maryland, and Florida State, won’t do them enough favors to consider them making a run.
Duke (+9000): They could have a potent passing game and if they can put up 60+ PPG, they might have a chance. However, if you want to make this bet, please don’t, and wait until basketball season to bet on the Blue Devils. Its a lot more fun to root for them while Dickie V is shouting.
ACC Champion Odds
Florida State (+150)
Virginia Tech (+280)
Miami (+700)
North Carolina (+800)
Maryland (+1600)
Clemson (+1750)
Boston College (+2700)
NC State (+3000)
Georgia Tech (+5500)
Virginia (+6300)
Duke (+22000)
Wake Forest (+2200)
This conference presents a lot of value due to the fact the two favorites are bringing in new QB’s and the 3rd and 4th favorites (UNC and Miami) are experiencing serious turmoil. I think this gives a great opportunity to teams with favorable home/away scheduling this season.
In the end, I believe the championship game will feature the two divisional favorites in Florida State and Virginia Tech. At this point, I have to give Virginia Tech the slight edge because I think they are better in the trenches. Also, since joining the ACC the Hokies are 28-3 beyond November 1st in conference play under Beamer, meaning they get rolling late. They also present better value on my money in a matchup I believe to be almost dead even.
Projected Winner:Virginia Tech (+280)
Value Team: North Carolina State (+3000)
Comments, questions, and opinion are always encouraged, so feel free to ask.
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