2011 Big 10 Preview: Analyzing the Odds

In the past year, the Big 10 has been on a re-branding campaign, adding Nebraska to the B1G Conference and placing them in the Legends division. What? It’s true; times are changing in the Big 10.

With the season upon us, we no longer have to discuss why the Big 10 has twelve teams and Big 12 only has ten. Instead, it’s time to determine who will be playing each other in the Big 10’s first ever conference championship game. This is should be a very competitive year in the Big 10 as it features nine teams that went to a bowl game in 2010.

***If you place a wager, please wager responsibly. Do NOT place a wager that is outside your financial means. If you can’t afford to lose that amount, then it is outside your means. There have never been and never will be a LOCK on any particular game. Anything can happen inside the lines on any given day, like a 36 point underdog in Stanford beating USC on the road in 2007.

Now that you plan to wager responsibly, let’s take a look at some Vegas odds on the B1G Conference

Legends Division

Projected Winner- Nebraska (-165): It’s easy to understand why Nebraska is such a huge favorite to win their division in their first season in Big Ten play, as they return one of the country’s best defenses, led by Jared Crick. The big question for Nebraska will be on offense, mainly at the Quarterback position. We know how electrifying Taylor Martinez can be running the ball, but the key to Nebraska’s offensive success will hinge on his ability to throw the ball, which he struggled with last season.

Nebraska has the hardest schedule of any team in the Big 10. Minus Minnesota, their schedule consists of seven bowl teams from 2010, who happen to be the seven betting favorites (behind Nebraska) to win the Big 10. They start conference play @Wisconsin followed by a home game against Ohio State, a very tough back to back. After a bye week and a game @Minnesota, they then rattle off games against Michigan State, Northwestern, @Penn State, @Michigan, and Iowa. What a truly brutal stretch.

Without a doubt, Nebraska will be one of the best teams in the Big 10 this season. However, given the uncertainty at the quarterback position coupled with their daunting Big 10 schedule, I can’t find any reason to lay that type of juice on this team to win their division.

Value Wager- Iowa (+800): Iowa must replace a plethora of talent from last season, which includes Ricky Stanzi, Adrian Clayborn, and Christian Ballard. With only eight true starters returning from a team that went 8-5 last season, there should be little room for optimism, right?

Actually, this team could be every bit as talented, if not better, than the team they had last season. They return the core of their offensive line, which includes both tackles. This should bode well for Marcus Coker who, at times, looked like he is a future stud in the making. If James Vandenberg can be an efficient game manager, their offense should be in very good shape in Big 10 play. Iowa must replace three players in their defensive line they lost to the NFL last season, which will be the key for the defense. If they are able to find a consistent pass rush, things will be looking up in a hurry for the Hawkeyes.

The schedule is where you have to love the division odds for this team. They begin Big 10 play with a very winnable road game at Penn State, a team who seems offensively confused and questionable. They then get Northwestern, Michigan, and Michigan State at home, which is favorable. The rest of the schedule fills out with games where they must avoid slip ups against Indiana, @Minnesota, and @Purdue. If they take care of business, their last game at Nebraska could be meaningless as far as the division goes.

Given their schedule and the fact you could be getting 8-1 on your money their last game of the season at Nebraska, I think a small value wager on Iowa could be justified.

Why Not

Michigan State (+450): Last year, Michigan State took advantage of a favorable schedule to finish 11-1 in the regular season.  In 2011, they aren’t as fortunate with road games at Ohio State, Nebraska, Iowa, and Northwestern. The road games at Nebraska and Iowa put them in an unfavorable position in any tiebreaker scenarios for the division.

Michigan (+775): They were extremely close to being my dark horse for the division, but I couldn’t pull the trigger based on their schedule. Road games at Northwestern, Michigan State, Iowa, and Illinois are all practically toss up games for Big Blue. Finishing the season with Nebraska and Ohio State back to back could be tough for a team that lacks experience in the depth chart. I think Michigan is going to surprise some people this season, but I just couldn’t see them taking the division in 2011.

Northwestern (+950): It's just weeks before the season and Dan Persa is still ailing from off season Achilles surgery which is cause for concern. On top of that, I’m not sure Northwestern has the defense to contend consistently in Big 10 play. I like them for an upset or two, but not the division.

Minnesota (+5300): They finished strong last season with a two game winning streak, but it’s too bad it only bumped their win total to three. They have a long ways to go before they are contending.

Leaders Division

Projected Winner- Wisconsin (+130): Wisconsin was projected to be a pretty good team again this season and that was before they landed Russell Wilson at quarterback. Now they are projected to win the division and possibly be a national title contender. Wilson now gives Wisconsin a legitimate offense to go with, what should be, a legitimate defense. This is probably the most complete team in the Big 10.

They have a bit of a tough schedule that includes road games at Michigan State, Ohio State, and Illinois, even though they should be a favorite in all of them. If they can take care of business at home against Nebraska and Penn State, they will be in great shape to win the division.

Looking down the line at a discombobulated Ohio State and an uncertain Penn State, it’s easy to see why Wisconsin is the favorite to win the division. I think there is another BCS bowl in Wisconsin’s future and even at low odds, they should be worth a wager.

Value Wager- Illinois (+1200): Last season, Nathan Scheelhaase emerged as a capable signal caller for new offensive coordinator Paul Petrino’s offense. They had some up and down moments last season, which were growing pains for a relatively young team at its core. This season, both units should be vastly improved and possibly ready to take the next step in conference play.

Upon the team’s improvement, the true value in Illinois lies in their schedule. They get most of their tougher opponents at home (Northwestern, Ohio State, Michigan, and Wisconsin) and yield road games to lesser opponents (Indiana, Purdue, Penn State, and Minnesota). If Illinois has taken that next step, this schedule is by far one of the more manageable ones in the conference.

Realistically, this is probably going to be a middle of the pack Big 10 team. However, they do get Ohio State and Wisconsin at home which gives them some help towards their cause concerning any division tie breakers. Since Ohio State and Penn State are a little bit down heading into this season, it could be the perfect storm of  Zook magic to challenge Wisconsin for the division. It’s worth a small wager, but I wouldn’t go too deep into the pockets for it either.

Why Not

Ohio State (+240): Considering they get Wisconsin and Penn State at home, it was really hard not to pick the Buckeyes as the division winners. Ohio State should still have one of the best defenses in the Big 10 and could finish the season strong once they get players back from suspension. It’s hard to overlook this off season and feel comfortable putting my hard earned cheddar on such a tumultuous situation like the one in Columbus.

Penn State (+260): I’m not sure what Penn State is going to bring to the table offensively this season. Their odds are too short to take a chance that the QB situation could get settled and an effective offense could emerge. I have them at eight wins tops.

Purdue (+3500) or Indiana (+5000): The Colts or the Irish would be the only teams in Indiana with a chance to win this division. Since one is in the NFL and the other is out orbiting the college football universe, I don't see that happening anytime soon.

Big Ten Champion

Nebraska (+175)

Wisconsin (+250)

Ohio State (+525)

Penn State (+600)

Michigan State (+1250)

Iowa (+1900)

Michigan (+1900)

Northwestern (+2500)

Illinois (+2900)

Purdue (+10000)

Indiana (+13500)

Minnesota (+16000)

Both divisions could easily come down to tie breaker situations- that’s how competitive the B1G should be this year.

UPSET ALERT: I believe the championship game will feature the Wisconsin Badgers against the Iowa Hawkeyes, leaving the newly added Cornhuskers out in the cold.

Wisconsin and Iowa match-up in very similar ways, but I have to give the edge to the Badgers as they are far better at the QB and DL positions.

Projected Winner: Wisconsin (+250)

Value Team: Iowa (+1900)

Questions and comments are always encouraged.

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