The newly expanded Pac 12 is set to debut this season with the additions of Colorado and Utah. The conference is also ready to debut their new bank accounts, which got a little bigger with their near $3 billion dollar TV deal, set to begin in the 2012-2013 season.
They enter this season with only three teams ranked in the AP Poll and one of them is ineligible. This season seems like it will be a two team race between Oregon and Stanford for the Pac 12 title and the winner of their meeting on November 12th with an inside track to the conference championship game.
Usually, I can find some type of value in dark horse teams to win their divisions. However, with the betting favorites in each division being so close in value and the bottom teams being so far off from a competition stand point, I will not have any divisional value selections in this preview.
***If you place a wager, please wager responsibly. Do NOT place a wager that is outside your financial means. If you can’t afford to lose that amount, then it is outside your means. There have never been and never will be a LOCK on any particular game. Anything can happen inside the lines on any given day, like a 36 point underdog in Stanford beating USC on the road in 2007.
Now that you plan to wager responsibly, let’s take a look at some Vegas odds on the Pac 12 Conference.
North
Projected Winner- Oregon (+110): Oregon returns one of the best backfields in all of college football with QB Darron Thomas and RB LaMichael James. If new comers on the offensive line can quickly gel together, this offense should be every bit as explosive as last year’s team. The real question lies in the Oregon’s defense as they must replace five starters in their front seven. Oregon’s strength will be in their secondary which features stud DB Cliff Harris.
When you talk about Oregon’s schedule there is really only one game to talk about; their November 12th meeting at Stanford. They do travel to Arizona early on in Pac 12 play, but Arizona has sustained a lot of injuries on defense this off season that should linger into that game one way or another. Otherwise, the schedule breaks nicely for them as they miss playing Utah and get USC, Arizona State, and Oregon State at home.
I think Oregon will be able to go into Stanford and get a win. “Luck”ily for them, their defensive strength lies in their secondary, which will need to be good to slow down Heisman favorite Andrew Luck. Oregon’s offense was able to put up 52 points on Stanford’s defense last season.Stanford's defense averaged only 14.5PPG against (excluding Oregon) and pitched three shutouts in Pac 10 play. This season their defense certainly won’t be better and, in fact, should be a little less effective when compared to last season.
I think Oregon will be able to win this division, however from a betting standpoint I do not like this wager. At only +110, you essentially are getting very little value to navigate through nine games and come out on top. The reality is, Oregon might not even be favored in their game against Stanford since it is on the road. That means you could get the same value for just one game if you were to bet the Oregon money line. If they are favored, it would only be by a small margin meaning the payout will be very similar. Most likely, that game will decide the North and with that in mind, I’m going to pass on this wager and wait for the November 12th showdown to place a bet on Oregon.
Why Not
Stanford (+175): With Andrew Luck and his two best offensive linemen returning, this was a hard bet to pass up. The loss of Jim Harbough meant a loss of mental toughness week in and week out, no one has it like that guy. Also, I worried Stanford might be a little bit beat up heading into their showdown with Oregon since two weeks prior they have back to back road games at USC and Oregon State. If there was any value wager in this division, it would be Stanford since the game against Oregon is at home. You would essentially have +175 on them winning, which will probably be better odds than you will get in November.
Oregon State (+800): I think Ryan Katz is going to be a very good quarterback and will make this team competitive. But, their Pac 12 schedule, which features road games at Arizona State, Utah, and Oregon, along with Stanford at home, will probably be too much to overcome to get the amount of wins they’ll need.
Washington (+800): This is a very interesting spoiler type of team going into the 2011 season, but I don’t think their schedule will allow them to get anywhere close to winning this division. It features games at Utah, Stanford, USC, and Oregon State, with Oregon on the schedule as well.
California (+1250): They should have a great defense, but an anemic offense. They also play at Oregon, Stanford, and Washington, so if in some rare case they did over achieve, they still would be at a disadvantage for any tie breakers from a scheduling stand point.
Washington State (+4700): They have an outside shot at making the FCS playoffs.
South
Projected Winner- Utah (+250): Jordan Wynn is entering his third year as the starting QB for the Utes and projects to be a great fit in Norm Chow’s offense. As long as Wynn isn’t ailing from offseason shoulder surgery, I expect him to make significant strides behind an offensive line that returns three outstanding starters. Defensively, Utah’s front seven should be very solid, with the question marks coming from their secondary. The secondary was their weakness last season and it must be improved.
With USC being ineligible, that changes the dynamic of this bet just a little (OK a lot). Utah gets Arizona State at home, which figures to be their toughest competition for the division. If they can take care of business in that game, that could set them up for an easy 8-1 or 7-2 conference record and give them an edge in tie breakers. Oh, one other little advantage Utah has over the Sun Devils and Wildcats is they don’t have Oregon or Stanford on the schedule. It seems like the schedule maker is rooting for the Utes.
Utah is a talented team and their schedule makes them a very favorable bet to win this division, especially with USC ineligible. It’s a little worrisome that this is their first season in a BCS conference, but they played seven or eight BCS caliber teams last season and managed 10 wins. I like this wager a lot and given the value, it’s a great spot for a decent sized bet on Utah.
Arizona State (+195): It was hard for me to pass on Arizona State because, theoretically, they should be good. However, they have had a disruptive offseason, which included a season ending injury to stud LB Brandon Magee. I think Osweiler should be good, but he’s unproven. They have an extremely tough start to the season which includes road games at Utah and Oregon. In the end, I can't trust a Dennis Erickson team to come through for me. Hope I’m not eating those words later.
Arizona (+315): Nick Foles is a great QB, but he has an offensive line in front of him that is as green as they come- zero returning starters. They’ve also sustained a couple of season ending injuries to returning starters on defense. With their grueling Pac 12 schedule that kicks off with Stanford, Oregon, @USC, @Oregon State and ends with a trip to Arizona State, I can’t see Arizona being a legitimate contender this season.
UCLA (+650): Rick Neuheisel still hasn’t named a starting QB for the season, probably because he doesn’t want it to begin. UCLA is not going to threaten for the division with a conference road schedule that features games at Oregon State, Stanford, Arizona, Utah, and Arizona State. It probably wont take long for the Bruins to be looking towards their 2012 season under a new regime.
Colorado (+800): Colorado is not the worst team in this division, but they aren’t going to contend for it either.
USC (N/A): It’s too bad Reggie Bush didn’t get a tattoo instead of a house because the Trojans would probably win the division with ease this season. It’s good news for bettors because USC’s ineligibility opens up the playing field to get value with Utah.
Pac 12 Champion
Oregon (+200)
Stanford (+300)
Arizona State (+550)
Utah (+775)
Arizona (+850)
UCLA (+1800)
Oregon State (+1900)
Washington (+1900)
Colorado (+2300)
California (+2900)
Washington State (+12500)
The first ever Pac 12 conference title game should feature the Oregon against Utah, with Oregon winning with ease. At 2-1 on your money, Oregon is worth a small wager prior to the season to win the Pac 12.
Projected Winner- Oregon (+200)
Value Team- Utah (+775)
Comments and questions are always encouraged.
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